|
2005 NFL Mock Draft Breakdown
February 17, 2005
From time to time I'll go through my mock draft and provide detailed thoughts on who I see going where, and why I have them projected as such.
1. San Francisco 49ers - Aaron Rodgers, QB, Cal
The 49ers need a long-term answer at QB, and it will in all likelihood be either Rodgers or Alex Smith. I give the edge to Rodgers at this point, though he's not the clear-cut favorite that Matt Leinart would've been had he declared himself eligible for the 2005 Draft. Tim Rattay and Ken Dorsey are not the solution here.
2. Miami Dolphins - Cedric Benson, RB, Texas
While Miami appears poised to cut Jay Fiedler, it isn't so that they can take a QB in this slot. Miami may pick up a veteran QB on the free agent market, but they need a replacement for Ricky Williams at RB. I happen to think that Cadillac Williams is a superior prospect to Benson, but I believe that Benson will go to Miami in this slot. Remember, projecting a draft isn't about how I (or anyone else) rates a particular list of players... it's about predicting where those players will be taken by teams, which is a far different exercise.
3. Cleveland Browns - Derrick Johnson, OLB, Texas
New head coach Romeo Crennel is rumored to want to implement a 3-4 defense in Cleveland, but even if that doesn't happen right away, Cleveland has needed a linebacker ever since the team passed on LaVar Arrington in the 2000 Draft to take Courtney Brown at #1. As recently as yesterday I had been thinking that the Browns would take a QB here, but after further research and consideration, I've decided that it's very doubtful that will happen. Look for Cleveland to go defense, either at corner or LB. With DJ being such a special, amazing player, I think the Browns will decide to go with him as the cornerstone of the rebuilt LB corps.
4. Chicago Bears - Mike Williams, WR, USC
The Bears need a go-to WR, and there happen to be two elite WRs in this draft: Williams and Braylon Edwards. I give the nod to Williams, who I anticipate will outperform Edwards in the combine and in workouts, though the Bears could go either way. There's no guarantee that the Bears will take a WR here (they might look to the free agent market instead), but I think given their options, Williams makes the most sense.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Alex Barron, OT, Florida St.
After the Bucs' 2004 season ended, Coach Jon Gruden was emphatic in saying that the team was going to rebuild its offensive line. Barron may not be as highly touted as some past top OT picks, but he is a solid player who would do great things for the Bucs. With the elite OT free agents to be locked up either with new contracts (Walter Jones) or franchise tags (Orlando Pace), it looks like the Bucs will have to rebuild their line via the draft.
6. Tennessee Titans - Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami
For as poorly as they finished in 2004, the Titans actually have a good team returning in 2005. That is, assuming that they don't have to slash too many players for salary cap reasons. CB Andre Dyson is a free agent who is leaving, but he can be replaced by the top corner prospect in the draft, Rolle. Plus lining up from his outstanding cousin, Samari Rolle, won't hurt his learning curve any.
7. Oakland Raiders - Adam "Pac Man" Jones, CB, West Virginia
Oh those unpredictable Raiders. There are many holes on the team, but there's only one #7 pick for them to use. RB, WR, and LB are all needs. But I think they'll go corner and go with the first NFL player I know of to be nicknamed after a video game character. Jones is on the rise in NFL scouting circles, with some even rating him ahead of Rolle. I wouldn't go that far myself, but I could see him being a productive player on a Raiders team that could use some help in the secondary.
8. Arizona Cardinals - Alex Smith, QB, Utah
The merry-go-round at QB for the Cardinals last season was a telling sign that the confidence that Dennis Green had in Josh McCown was short-lived. Enter Alex Smith, a solid, dependable QB who lead his Utah team to an unbeaten season in 2004. Even if Green also brings in a veteran to start in 2005, there needs to be a long-term future plan for the QB position, and Smith is the man to fit the bill. With all of the talent at WR on the Arizona roster, the QB spot must not be overlooked. RB is another hole that exists, but if Arizona can snag a free agent RB that would fill that need (though with Walter Jones signing a long-term deal with Seattle, the Seahawks might franchise tag Shaun Alexander, which might thwart Arizona on that end).
9. Washington Redskins - Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin
I've stuck with this pick for some time, and I'm not going to change it at this point. James is the best defensive end in the draft (in my opinion), and he will bring a pass rushing force to the Redskins that they desperately need. You might see Dan Cody considered here, but I think it'll be James. Some project either a CB or a WR, but there should be some good WRs on the open market if the Redskins truly feel a need there, and if somehow Fred Smoot is allowed to leave (BAD IDEA), there will be other CBs that can be acquired (and besides, no rookie CB will equal the production of Smoot). Besides, wasn't the idea of trading Champ Bailey last year that Smoot was ready to become the long-term #1 CB in Washington?
10. Detroit Lions - Heath Miller, TE, Virginia
Detroit is in a great position to trade down. Many of the above teams would LIKE to trade down, but it takes two (or more) to trade. But at this spot the value light goes on for many teams, especially if guys like Braylon Edwards and Dan Cody are on the board.
Some mocks have Detroit going with Thomas Davis here, but they all seem to list Davis as a safety. However, Davis projects to be more of a tweener OLB/S, almost a reverse Michael Boulware (who played OLB at Florida State in 2003 and shifted to safety in the pros with the Seahawks in 2004). Now that's not to say that the Lions wouldn't benefit from a multi-talented player, but Heath Miller would fit their west coast offense very, VERY well.
11. Dallas Cowboys - Dan Cody, DE/OLB, Oklahoma
This pick has generated some interesting e-mails from Cowboys fans (and interested onlookers) who think that Braylon Edwards would go here instead. I say no dice. Why? The Cowboys have hinted more than just a little bit that they'll be trading one of their two first round picks, and I would imagine that the second of those (#20) will be the one that goes. Moreover, the Cowboys have a strong need to fill a defensive line spot, and Cody can do that, while also providing a potential option at linebacker (though he'd be more likely to play LB if drafted by a team running the 3-4). But as a DE he is good against the pass and the rush, and what more can a team ask from a DE?
12. San Diego Chargers (from NY Giants) - Braylon Edwards, WR, Michigan
Will Edwards really fall to #12? I think it all depends on if a team in the 13-18 range makes a move to slide up to Detroit's spot at #10 (or elsewhere in that range), or if Chicago takes him at #4. There is the outside chance of Oakland giving him a go at #7, but with so many needs the Raiders could take just about anyone.
If he's really on the board here, look for jubilation in the Chargers board room and the ESPN crew to be raving about the great value that San Diego got from this pick. You might even see a cut-away of the Giants' draft table, since this used to be their pick.
If Edwards and Mike Williams are gone, San Diego will have to decide between going WR with Troy Williamson (who is looking more and more impressive all the time) or filling a defensive need with either a player like OLB/S Thomas Davis or DE Marcus Spears. Spears would be very nice in a 3-4, so he would make sense here (and there will be WR talent down at #28), so the Chargers will have choices regardless of what happens. What will be interesting to see is if the Chargers get trigger-happy and trade up to get Edwards if he's on the board at, say, #10.
13. Houston Texans - Thomas Davis, OLB/S, Georgia
The Texans' 3-4 defense requires strong linebackers to work at its peak, and Davis would fit in well with that. Another possibility is Marcus Spears (as mentioned above for his strength in a 3-4 system). The Texans last year drafted a DE (Jason Babin) and turned him into a LB; this year will they turn a safety into a LB?
14. Carolina Panthers - Troy Williamson, WR, South Carolina
This prediction is predicated on my belief that the Panthers will end up cutting Muhsin Muhammad for salary cap reasons. Muhammad is due a $10 million dollar bonus on March 1, so unless his deal is reworked, he'll be cut by the end of February. With Steve Smith returning as a #1 receiver and Keary Colbert coming off a good rookie season, Williamson has a chance to come in as a #3 guy (read: no pressure), learn the system, and eventually push his way toward the top.
15. Kansas City Chiefs - Marcus Spears, DE, LSU
While Spears would fit well in a 3-4, he'll do just fine in a 4-3 defense as well. Exasperated Chiefs fans are sick of draft after draft with their defense being ignored. It's possible that the Chiefs will at long last address their CB situation, but there will be free agent opportunities to do that as well. Meanwhile, Spears would give the team a pass rusher who is also strong at stopping the run. That should prove to be worth more than rolling the dice on a second-tier (i.e. not Rolle or Pac-Man) CB at this stage of the draft.
16. New Orleans Saints - Travis Johnson, DT, Florida St.
Mike McKenzie's play down the stretch played a role in the Saints turnaround (which saved coach Jim Haslett's job). Now the Saints need to find a good OLB and a good DT. There will be OLBs out there in round two, but with this pick the Saints have a chance to snag Travis Johnson. He is known for his ability to collapse the pocket, which should be good in conjunction with the Saints using the franchise tag to keep DE Darren Howard, who had 11 sacks last season.
17. Cincinnati Bengals - Justin Miller, CB, Clemson
If the Saints end up passing on Travis Johnson, I could see the Bengals picking him here. But if not, then I see Marvin Lewis helping out his secondary by taking Miller. He is a "playmaker", and unlike some corners, he likes to get physical and make hits. Sometimes his confidence will work against him (i.e. making Terrell Buckley like plays going after the ball), but overall he'd be a major plus for the Bengals secondary. Oh, and he's a tremendous kick returner, too.
18. Minnesota Vikings - Channing Crowder, ILB, Florida
The Vikings could really use an upgrade at middle linebacker, and this is a logical spot in the draft for Channing Crowder to go. This might be subject to change depending on what happens with Randy Moss; even if the Vikings sign someone like Jerry Porter after trading Moss, they can't have the likes of Marcus Robinson at the #2 WR spot. But until a Moss trade actually happens, I'm keeping Crowder in here.
19. St. Louis Rams - Jammal Brown, OT, Oklahoma
Yes, the Rams have Orlando Pace, but his annual franchising/holdout isn't very fun for either side. Moreover, with Kyle Turley's problems (both physical and with coach Mike Martz), it would make sense to bring in Brown to infuse some new life on the line.
20. Dallas Cowboys (from Buffalo Bills) - Mark Clayton, WR, Oklahoma
This is the pick that the Cowboys will probably never make. But if they do keep this pick, look for the sure-handed Clayton to go here. Clayton makes few drops, is intelligent on the field, makes great plays after the catch, and should be the type to potentially slide under the radar of opposing defenses with personalities like Keyshawn Johnson and Terry Glenn hanging around.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars - Matt Roth, DE, Iowa
While the Jaguars have two excellent DTs, their defensive end situation has not been up to par. With Tony Brackens and Hugh Douglas waived in training camp last year... well it's obvious that Jacksonville is looking to rebuild at that spot. Roth can bring the heat, which should help improve the team's pass rush.
22. Baltimore Ravens - Carlos Rogers, CB, Auburn
Many mocks have the Ravens going with a WR. But the reality of the situation is that the Ravens need a WR who can produce now, and most WRs don't begin providing top output until their third season in the league. I anticipate Baltimore landing a top WR via free agency, and instead boosting its secondary (which will probably be without Deion Sanders this year) with Carlos Rogers.
23. Seattle Seahawks - Cadillac Williams, RB, Auburn
With Walter Jones signing a long-term deal, the Seahawks now can use their franchise tag on either Matt Hasselbeck or Shaun Alexander. My guess is that they'll use it on Hasselbeck, allow Alexander to walk, and take one of the big three rookie RBs in the draft. If Cadillac Williams really falls to them here, it's the steal of the draft.
24. Green Bay Packers - David Pollack, DE, Georgia
The Packers need to revamp their defense, and while CBs might be a consideration, David Pollack is a bona fide pass rushing threat who could make an instant impact for the team. It'd be hard to fault the Packers for going with him at this spot.
25. Denver Broncos - Shawne Merriman, DE/OLB, Maryland
This would be ideal for Broncos fans: a tweener DE/OLB who is best equipped to play in a 3-4 defense (which is what Denver is moving to in 2005). Merriman might not have the name recognition to casual fans that some of the other first round DE prospects have, but he has the skills to perform at a high level in the pros.
26. New York Jets - Ronnie Brown, RB, Jets
Lamont Jordan is almost for sure going to be playing elsewhere in 2005, and the Jets would be well advised to draft Ronnie Brown and have him become the heir-apparent to Curtis Martin. Martin lead the NFL in rushing in 2004, but despite his longevity and recent success, the clock is ticking.
27. Atlanta Falcons - Brodney Pool, S, Oklahoma
Safety is a need position for Atlanta, and after using a first rounder on DeAngelo Hall in 2004, the Falcons could further improve their secondary by drafting Pool here. It might seem like a bit of a stretch to some, but when you reach the end of the first round you start running into some judgment calls.
28. San Diego Chargers - Shaun Cody, DT/DE, USC
Under this scenario you can see why San Diego might want to take a prime DE at #12, as Roddy White would still be on the board. Of course in reality he might not be there, so who knows, but it warrants mentioning. As it is, Shaun Cody is coming off of back-to-back NCAA Championship teams, and he would bring his championship attitude to the Chargers, along with a hard-nosed presence to the d-line.
29. Indianapolis Colts - Marlin Jackson, CB, Michigan
I anticipate that the Colts will use this pick as part of a trade with the Dolphins for Patrick Surtain. But if not, they could easily select a corner like Marlin Jackson here. Though it seems that the Colts, much like the Chiefs, have a phobia of drafting corners in the first round.
30. Pittsburgh Steelers - Roddy White, WR, UAB
Exit Plaxico Burress... enter Roddy White? It sure looks like Burress is going to hit the road from Pittsburgh, but the Steelers could replace him with another tall, talented receiver in White.
31. Philadelphia Eagles - Anttaj Hawthorne, DT, Wisconsin
Perhaps it's a long-shot to expect Hawthorne to last this long, but you'd be surprised how defensive linemen will sometimes fall in the draft. In this case, Hawthorne would give the Eagles a nice boost in the middle, which is just the ticket for a team looking to make a fifth straight trip to the NFC Championship game.
32. New England Patriots - Kevin Burnett, OLB, Tennessee
The Patriots have a strong linebacking group... but there's not a great deal of youth in there (unless you count Eric Alexander or Tully Banta-Cain, which I don't). Kevin Burnett is an experienced leader who's been tested against SEC offenses and who should fit right in with the Patriots core group. With the health problems that Tedy Bruschi has recently encountered, it's all the more reason for the Patriots to think LB for the #32 pick.
Earlier Mock Draft Breakdowns
January 6, 2005
December 6, 2004
NFL Draft Prospect Profiles
Copyright © 2003-2026 DKDB, all rights reserved.
| 