2011 NFL Mock Draft

Last Updated: August 14, 2010
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com

Before you complain about where your favorite team is slotted, know that I have arranged the draft order according to the Las Vegas odds from June for winning the Super Bowl, working in reverse. This isn't an indication of any prediction or projection by me as to how any given team might finish in 2010.

Keep in mind that, while there will for sure be a 2011 NFL Draft, there is no guarantee that there will actually be a 2011 NFL season. That could negatively impact the decisions of players with remaining draft eligibility on possibly leaving early for the NFL.

Until now I had hung onto the notion that Alabama WR Julio Jones would be the top wide receiver taken in the 2011 Draft if he decides to declare early. That might still happen, but the overwhelming opinion out there among scouts seems to be that Georgia WR A.J. Green is the top wide receiver prospect who is potentially draft-eligible for 2011.

Perhaps the biggest drop from my June 2010 mock is Texas DE/OLB Sam Acho, who seems more like a 3rd or 4th round prospect at this point. With Sergio Kindle gone (and recovering from a scary fractured skull injury suffered this summer), Acho will have the chance to prove himself as a defensive playmaker. But the scouts aren't bullish on him as a first round pick, so out he goes... at least for now.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - A.J. Green, WR, Georgia *
The Bucs seem to have found a sleeper at wide receiver in the form of rookie wide receiver Mike Williams from Syracuse, who the team snagged in the 4th round of the 2010 Draft. But if the Bucs have a poor enough season to end up with this pick, the team will likely be in a spot where they will need to bring in more receiving help for QB Josh Freeman. Marvin Austin and Cameron Heyward would have been likely targets if the Bucs hadn't used their top two picks on defensive tackles in the 2010 Draft.

2. St. Louis Rams - Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
Remember that the Rams passed on Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh to draft Sam Bradford with the top pick in the 2010 Draft. Defensive tackle remains a need spot for the team, and a player with Austin's size and ability would be a great fit for the Rams.

3. Cleveland Browns - Julio Jones, WR, Alabama *
As amazing as Josh Cribbs is as a kick returner, he is not the elite wide receiver that the Browns need. Jones is a phenomenal talent, one of the first blue chip preps that Nick Saban convinced to come to Alabama and a likely long-term pro star in the making. Cleveland would be wise to take him if he's on the board here, though some (including Mel Kiper) like Pitt junior WR Jonathan Baldwin ahead of Jones at this point.

4. New England Patriots (via Oakland) - Cameron Heyward, DL, Ohio St.
It would be fitting for the Patriots to land a top-notch defensive line prospect with this pick, acquired from the Raiders in exchange for DL Richard Seymour in 2009. In many ways, Patriots/Raiders trades remind me of the foolish guy in a fantasy football league (Oakland) who gives up way too much in a trade over and over again to an owner (New England) who isn't afraid to take advantage of the other guy's naivety.

A talent like Heyward would be a huge addition to the Patriots 3-4 defense, giving them a player who can add an injection of youth into the defensive front.

5. Buffalo Bills - Jake Locker, QB, Washington
Locker could have been the top pick in the 2010 Draft, but he opted to return to the Huskies for his senior season. The Bills haven't been able to find the right answer at QB for some time now, and a player of Locker's ability would be a logical addition here, especially if Buffalo is drafting in the top five, meaning they had yet another disappointing season.

6. Kansas City Chiefs - Adrian Clayborn, DL, Iowa
At 6'3" 285, Clayborn has tremendous size to fill the middle. He is slightly shorter than you'd want an ideal defensive tackle to be, but he makes up for that by never taking a play off and bringing his full effort for every snap.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas *
There are some out there who aren't aware that Mallett could return to Arkansas in 2011, but if he turns pro after this season he will likely be the top non-senior quarterback taken (though some would say that distinction belongs to Stanford QB Andrew Luck).

The upcoming season is likely a now-or-never scenario for Jack Del Rio and company in Jacksonville, and another year out of the playoffs will likely mean a changing of the guard there. Mallett is an impressive 6'7" and 240 pounds, and his 30 TDs against just 7 interceptions last year shows his ability to throw the ball accurately. He will face another season of world-class talent in SEC competition this fall, and if he looks as good this fall as he did in 2009, he could end up as a top 10 selection.

8. Seattle Seahawks - Allen Bailey, DT, Miami
Bailey, like Clayborn, is a massive player who will fill the middle at 6'4" 290 pounds. He projects as a 4-3 DT or a 3-4 DE, but his optimum value would be as a defensive tackle for a team like Seattle. Perhaps Bailey will be the next piece of the defensive puzzle for Pete Carroll, as he could be added to a Seahawks team that could use some youth and size added to its defensive line. The 2011 Draft has the potential to be loaded at DT/DE, and Bailey could see himself going in the top ten or falling late in round one (or even beyond) as a good value pick. This projection is based on the expectation that he will have another strong year for the Hurricanes.

9. Detroit Lions - Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU *
Lions GM Martin Mayhew has slowly but surely rebuilt the defense in Detroit that was mostly ignored under inept former GM Matt Millen, whose poor choices earned him mockery and ultimately lead the Lions to a humbling 0-16 record in 2008. Adding Peterson would represent one of the final pieces of the puzzle for the Lions, and this fall Peterson is slated to face off with both A.J. Green and Julio Jones. If Peterson can hold his own against them, it will be hard to argue against him being the first corner drafted in 2011 -- of course, that hinges on if Peterson opts to turn pro early.

10. Denver Broncos - Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina
Carter is an amazing athlete, but the knock on him is that he is soft in coverage. He'll have the chance to dispel that thought this fall, though for a team like Denver that could use him as a 3-4 OLB pass-rusher, he might not be called on to fall back into coverage as much as he might elsewhere. Carter benefits from playing for a loaded defense at North Carolina, which could allow him to hide some flaws since teams are less likely to single him out in gameplanning. But he has huge ability and could end up performing well enough this fall to earn a spot in the top ten. Even if he doesn't, his raw ability will turn heads at the combine and in private workouts, enough so to where (barring injury) him falling out of round one in the 2011 NFL Draft would be surprising.

11. San Francisco 49ers - Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
Scouts are high on Amukamara's pro potential -- and rightfully so. His size (6'0" or 6'1" depending on the source and 200 lbs.) and speed (estimated sub-4.5 40) are strong measurables, and moreover he has performed admirably against some strong competition in the Big XII. The 49ers have a variety of needs, but the chance to land a prospect like Amukamara at this position could be too much for San Francisco to pass up.

12. Arizona Cardinals - Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
Unlike the norm at this point in most seasons, there aren't any "can't miss" offensive tackle prospects in this year's draft eligible bunch, and scouts and TV pundits alike have a wide variety of opinions on who the top OT prospect for the 2011 Draft is. There is one common thread though: they almost all think highly of Wisconsin offensive lineman Gabe Carimi.

A behemoth of a human being at 6'7" 325 pounds, Carimi has drawn comparisons with Russell Okung, the #6 overall pick in the 2010 Draft, and some believe that Carimi is in the same neighborhood of potential as what former Wisconsin star Joe Thomas (now starting at left tackle for the Browns) showed at this point of his career. Carimi has shown ability at both run and pass blocking, and another dominant season this fall could help him make the case as being the top offensive line prospect for 2011.

13. Miami Dolphins - Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina *
At 6'5" 260, Quinn has the size to play defensive end in a 4-3 alignment. But, for a team like Miami running a 3-4, Quinn would be a better fit as an OLB. The results could be scary for Dolphins opponents, as Quinn is an extremely athletic and gifted pass rusher. He tallied 11 sacks and forced six fumbles for the Tar Heels in 2009, and a similar performance this fall will boost his draft stock further.

14. Carolina Panthers - Travis Lewis, OLB, Oklahoma *
Lewis is a traditional 4-3 outside linebacker, and during his career with the Sooners he has impressed. His 2008 freshman season was one for the ages (with an insane 144 tackles), and while his stats dropped a bit last season, he still has world class ability. If he can add another 10-15 pounds of muscle to his 6'2" 230 frame, he could become even more attractive to pro teams looking for a 4-3 OLB. For a team like Carolina that has been snakebitten at linebacker, he would be a strong addition.

15. Chicago Bears - Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA *
The Bears didn't have picks in either rounds one or two last year, and certainly the Bears need to make a strong selection in this spot to help balance that out. Ayers is one of several outstanding 4-3 OLBs who could end up in the mix for 2011. He is athletic, almost freakishly at times, and his capacity for making dramatic pick-six interceptions is a definite attention-getter. At 6'4" 255 he has great size, and with a strong 2010 season at UCLA he could easily find himself in the first round mix for the 2011 Draft.

16. Atlanta Falcons - Mark Barron, SS, Alabama *
Barron is one of several elite safeties who could end up vying to be the first safety selected in 2010. Another one of Nick Saban's early great recruits, Barron broke out in 2009 with seven interceptions and 72 tackles from the strong safety spot. If he manages to post similar numbers this fall, he could end up on a team like Atlanta that could use a young, athletic playmaking safety.

17. Cincinnati Bengals - Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama *
If the NFL didn't have a rule in place prohibiting college players from entering the NFL until they are at least three years removed from their high school graduating class, Ingram could have easily jumped to the pro level off of his Heisman Trophy winning sophomore season and been a sure-fire first round selection. But life is not fair, and the NFL enjoys using the NCAA as a de facto minor league system. It likely protects players who are better off staying an extra year or two in college from making a Jevan Snead style mistake (leaving early for the pros and not getting drafted), but for Ingram he was a talent worthy of the NFL who was unable to cash in like he should have.

But Ingram will be eligible for the 2011 Draft if he opts to enter it, and he would be a wonderful fit on a Bengals team that has managed to squeeze out more production from Cedric Benson than many observers believed that they could. Ingram could prove to be the missing piece for a Bengals team that could use a sure-fire running back talent.

18. Tennessee Titans - Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
Dowling has prototype height as a 6'2" corner, decent weight at 200 pounds, and acceptable speed (estimated 4.52) for the position. There are some questions about his fundamentals going into the season, but he has the size to jam all but the biggest of receivers who line up against him. With a solid senior season, Dowling could find himself in the mix among the very top corner prospects for the 2011 Draft.

19. Washington Redskins - Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
There are some who believe that Castonzo is the top offensive tackle prospect for 2011. But even if that doesn't end up being the case, Castonzo almost for sure will be in the upper tier of offensive line prospects and one of the first offensive lineman to be drafted, barring injury or off-the-field problems.

Castonzo has NFL quality size at 6'7" 305 (up 10 pounds from last season), and while he suffered a broken foot that kept him out of spring action, he should be healthy and ready to go when BC's season begins next month. He's also very intelligent, a biochemistry major who is under consideration for a Rhodes scholarship.

20. Houston Texans - Rahim Moore, FS, UCLA *
Moore has started every game of his career for the Bruins heading into this fall's action, and he's coming off a season where he had 10 interceptions, an eye-popping number for a safety. A native of Los Angeles, Moore would have likely been one of the first safeties selected in the 2010 Draft if he had been eligible to declare for early entry (as a true sophomore he wasn't -- see the Mark Ingram write-up above for more on that). The Texans haven't had a bona fide star at safety since the franchise debuted in the NFL in 2002, and Houston drafting Moore would give the team a good shot at finally changing that.

21. New York Giants - Jurrell Casey, DT, USC *
At 6'1" 305 Casey is a 4-3 DT prospect with below-average height for the position, but that doesn't mean that he won't have a big impact in the NFL. A true sophomore last fall, Casey started every game in 2009 for Southern Cal. And, despite the turmoil which has erupted within that program and Casey having a free pass to transfer due to the NCAA's sanctions against the school, Casey opted to stay with the new regime headed by Lane Kiffin.

What Casey lacks in size he makes up for with quickness you wouldn't expect from a 300+ pound man. He is a tackling machine, great at spotting and reaching running backs while also possessing pass rush skills that you wouldn't expect out of a defensive tackle. Spending this fall under the tutelage of Monte Kiffin (who coached Warren Sapp in Tampa Bay) can only help his game. And, while Casey is not the prototype you think of with an elite NFL defensive tackle prospect, he has the skills to be worthy of being a first round selection.

22. New York Jets - Marcell Dareus, DL, Alabama *
The off-season talk about Dareus hasn't been what he might have liked, with questions surrounding the possibility that Dareus broke NCAA rules by attending an agent's party in Miami early in the summer. But, presuming that he will be able to play this fall (and all indications at this point are that he will), Dareus has the chance to make a major name for himself as an elite defensive star.

Dareus plays DE in Alabama's 3-4 defense, and he forever cemented his place in Crimson Tide lore when he knocked Texas QB Colt McCoy out of the BCS Title game with a clean hit. Dareus would likely play DT in a 4-3 in the NFL, and many scouts are quite optimistic about his chances at being successful on the pro level. I have him slightly lower than some others do at this point, if for nothing else because I want to see how he will perform without having Terrence "Mount" Cody at nose tackle and also because of the potential risk of an NCAA violation deep-sixing his season.

This is likely a pipe dream for the Jets, a chance to draft a true 3-4 DE with such rare playmaking ability who is also used to playing in a 3-4 defense. It's entirely possible that Dareus will leapfrog other defensive line talent when I redo this mock once the season is underway, but for now he's here. There's also the chance that Dareus would return to Alabama for the 2011 season, though with him having seen the dark side of the NCAA, I imagine he'll be heading to the NFL after the season.

23. Philadelphia Eagles - Matt Reynolds, OT, BYU *
Reynolds has NFL quality size at 6'6" 320 (or 330 depending on the source), and his jarring punch move is one of the most effective specialty moves of any college offensive tackle. Reynolds is regarded more for his run blocking than his pass defense, though that can be improved as he gains more experience and further coaching while he perfects his craft. Reynolds also needs to improve his footwork if he is to become an elite NFL player, but much like his pass blocking, that can be refined with coaching and effort.

24. Baltimore Ravens - Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame *
Floyd will have an opportunity to showcase his skills this fall under new Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly. Injury prematurely ended Floyd's impressive 2009 sophomore season, but with former Notre Dame WR Golden Tate having moved on to the NFL, all eyes will be on Floyd as the unquestioned #1 receiving threat for the Fightin' Irish this fall.

25. Minnesota Vikings - Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford *
Barring something truly surprising, Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels don't represent the future for the Vikings at QB. The recent August tradition of will he/won't he with Brett Favre possibly coming back to play another season will likely end with him returning at the latest by the Vikings' bye week. But Favre isn't the long-term future at QB either, and Minnesota would be well-served to draft a player like Luck in this spot. It's possible that the Vikings will have a number of quarterback prospects to choose from at this position, which gives the team some latitude in choosing who will be its long-term answer at quarterback.

26. Green Bay Packers - Brandon Harris, CB, Miami *
There are some who believe that Harris will end up being the top cornerback prospect following the college season. If that holds, Harris could be in a spot to make the leap to the pro level and end up as a high-to-mid level first-round pick. But even if Harris isn't the first or second corner to go, he has the potential to be on the board for a team like Green Bay that could really use a top-notch corner to buffer an otherwise aging CB core.

27. Pittsburgh Steelers - Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
The Steelers suffered quite a bit of embarrassment this off-season due to some poor off-the-field decisions allegedly made by QB Ben Roethlisberger. At the same time, Roethlisberger is a two-time Super Bowl winner, which gives him more latitude than I suspect most other players would have. But him being suspended for between 4-6 games (whatever it ends up being) is a pretty big deal, and it might be in Pittsburgh's best interest to plan for a possible post-Big Ben era by drafting Ponder. If nothing else, it would send a message to Roethlisberger that his future as the Steelers' starting QB is not a lock.

28. Dallas Cowboys - Marcus Cannon, OT, TCU
There are a number of possibilities for the Cowboys at this spot, at least from how things look at this point, but especially when it comes to offensive tackle prospects there could be some good value to be had in this position for Dallas. Opinions vary at this point for the so-called second tier of offensive tackle prospects (not that there is a clear-cut first-tier at this point), but the bottom line is that if Dallas wants a quality offensive tackle with what the team hopes will be a late first round pick, they should have their pick of several viable options.

I've plugged in Cannon for this spot; the 6'5" 350 pounder has the size and skill to be a serviceable NFL offensive tackle. But you could easily swap Cannon out for Georgia OT Clint Boling (6'5" 295) or Colorado OT Nate Solder (6'8" 305) and not draw too much of a complaint out of me.

29. New England Patriots - DeMarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma
The Patriots have found success in their offense with a variety of running backs, particularly those with strong pass receiving skills. Murray's numbers in 2009 dipped from his strong 2008 campaign, though defenses were able to concentrate on him more than in past seasons with the shoulder injuries sustained by OU QB Sam Bradford.

But Murray also showed an ability to catch the ball out of the backfield last season, pulling in 41 receptions for 522 yards. He had 31 receptions in 2008, and if he posts similar numbers in 2010 he could be appealing for a team like New England that could use a moderate-sized running back (6'1" 215) who is also adept as an outlet for Tom Brady.

30. San Diego Chargers - Dont'a Hightower, ILB, Alabama *
Hightower was part of an impressive ILB duo with Rolando McClain early last season for the Crimson Tide. Unfortunately for Hightower, a knee injury sustained in the Arkansas game derailed the rest of his 2009 season, but he looks to return and show why he is considered by many to be the top junior inside linebacker prospect heading into the 2010 season. For the Chargers, a team running a 3-4 defense, a player like Hightower with experience as a 3-4 ILB could be a great fit.

31. Indianapolis Colts - Mike Pouncey, C/OG, Florida
The Colts found out this week that they will be without starting center Jeff Saturday due to him undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery, a procedure that is expected to keep him out for as many as six weeks. Which knee was scoped is unclear as of this writing -- seriously, how is that information not out there?!?

Whatever the case, Saturday has been a mainstay at center for the Colts, but he is 35 years old and the Colts need to plan for life after Saturday. He is under contract through 2011, which would give time for an understudy to learn from Saturday before ultimately taking his job. Mike Pouncey, brother of 2010 first-round pick Maurkice Pouncey, seems the most likely candidate to fill that spot, though the Colts might have other plans in mind.

32. New Orleans Saints - Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame *
Rudolph will likely be the first tight end drafted if he leaves Notre Dame after this fall. The Saints have Jeremy Shockey on board, but he turns 30 this month and will carry a $4.5 million plus base salary price tag for the final year of his contract in 2011. A player like Rudolph could fit in quite well in New Orleans, a mix of great size for the position (6'6" 260) to go with strong numbers as a receiving threat (29 catches in 2008 followed by 33 receptions in 2009).

* indicates player with NCAA eligibility for 2011 who may opt to enter the 2011 NFL Draft
~ indicates player with NCAA eligibility for 2011 who has either declared for the 2011 NFL Draft or who has signed with an agent

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