Lou Pickney's 2024 NFL Mock Draft

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So my question for you Lou is this: if you were running a 4-3 defense (like I hope the Cowboys will keep) and you needed a pass rushing DE....how would you rank these guys? Remember, in my scenario you have to play tweeners like Merriman, Ware, Pollack and Cody as a DE!

Lou: When putting together the mock draft that I have, I do it knowing that there will be trades taking place. It's not an if, it's a where and when. But prognosticating trades is a risky thing to do in the mock draft biz, particularly when it's on mere speculation. But Dallas has outright said that it plans to trade one of its first rounders, and to ignore that is to be foolish.

I suppose the quest for Darren Howard might not necessitate relinquishing a first round pick. The Saints need to unload his salary, particularly as they make room for last year's first rounder, Will Smith, to enter the starting lineup, and the Cowboys could sure use a proven star like Howard.

Taken from that point of view, I could see the Cowboys going LB and S in the first round, allowing the WR spot to go unfilled until round three. Then again, taking that argument one step further, my current first round with Dallas going LB and WR, on the presumption of Howard costing Dallas its second rounder, is not without merit, provided that one takes a different outlook on the quality of the safeties that would be available in round two.

What could happen is this: Dallas gives up the #42 for Darren Howard (solving the DE hole). LB Derrick Johnson goes to Dallas at #11. Dallas trades down a few spots from #20, landing a third or fourth rounder. A third would be better. Use the #2? pick on a safety, Brodney Pool or Thomas Davis (whose stock has fallen hard, but who is still a good pickup in my mind). LB, S and DE are covered, and Parcells' defensive moves are set.

Dallas traded its third rounder to Houston last year, so it would need one of its own, to be acquired perhaps by trading down. Last year moving from #19 to #20 netted Minnesota a fourth round pick, but maybe Dallas could do better by moving a few more spots.

Go WR with that third round pick. It's not an ideal scenario, but for a #3 receiver you don't have to go for the next Jerry Rice. Just find a guy who you like that'll work in the system.

Now, with my ideas all laid out there, I don't think it'll play out that way. More likely Dallas will trade down hard from #20, as in moving to the second round if they can. Remember, this is the same team that had the chance to draft Steven Jackson last year, but instead traded down and later took Julius Jones. Just because something makes sense to observers like me doesn't mean it fits into Coach Parcells' plans.

Let me get to your question of rating the DEs. There's the out of trying to argue that some will do better in some systems than others, which is true to a degree, but I'll give you my flat-out rankings -- and why I feel the way I do. But remember, this is in a way misleading, since the value of some of these players lies in their multi-positional skills. Shaun Cody will go higher than some ranked above him thanks to his ability to play both DT and DE, but for the sake of the list, we'll pretend he is only allowed to play DE in the NFL. My top eight are below:

The DE-Only List

2) Dan Cody, DE/OLB, Oklahoma
Some people are down on him because of treatment he received for depression in 2001, but they have medication to treat that, and from all indications he's fine now in 2005. Like Merriman he might fit the 3-4 as a OLB a little better, but as a DE he can still be a good pass rusher while at the same time being effective against the run. He's a guy who will slip a bit potentially, but who will ultimately be a good catch. It's funny to think that a guy from Oklahoma would be overlooked because of a player from Troy, but it could very well happen on draft day.

3) Demarcus Ware, DE/OLB, Troy
Uh oh, the SEC DE supporters are starting to turn on me, I can feel it. And I love SEC football. But Ware, despite concerns about his size, has blistering speed to cover the outside, and he can get to the QB. In a way he's more one-dimensional than most of the other names on this list, but when that one dimension is ability to reach the QB, ultimately that will allow him to trump other, more well-rounded prospects.

4) Marcus Spears, DE, LSU
He's a bit of a misfit as a 300+ pound DE, and his pass rushing is not that of others on this list. But while he doesn't have speed to close in on a QB rush, he does have quickness to beat his man on the line and fill the hole to stop a running play. He'd benefit from working in a 3-4, though you can say that about the top four guys on this list, and in a 4-3 dominated-league there's not enough 3-4s to go around. The difference though is that Spears would work DE in a 3-4, whereas Merriman/D. Cody/Ware would work OLB. Think if Cleveland could somehow get Ware and Spears. I know the Browns don't need another OLB, but work with me here for a second. Spears as a DE able to contain the run, with the insanely fast Ware flying in to make the sack or dropping back in coverage to jaw-jack a tight end or third wide receiver on a curl pattern. Anyway, Spears will be good, but he would best work on a team that already has a pass rush threat at the other DE position.

5) Erasmus James, DE, Wisconsin
It's a close one between him and David Pollack at #6, but James gets the nod. James is maybe the first one on this list to be a natural 4-3 DE, and he is a pass rushing threat. Him being two inches taller than David Pollack, with nearly equal weight and 40 yard dash time, might be the tiebreaker there. James has an injury history, but in 2004 he served notice to the nation that he has recovered from his past ailments. James benefited from a nice supporting cast on the Wisconsin starting line, but that's no reason to overlook what he did on the field and how he has performed in off-season performances. If it weren't for the injury history, I'd have him at #4, maybe even above Ware at #3 due to Ware's lack of experience against top-notch competition. But you can't pretend away injury histories, even in the era of knee surgeries that are proving to be more and more successful all the time (Edgerrin James, Willis McGahee, etc.) The days of Terry Allen being a rare bionic freak are gone; in this era his recovery from two major knee surgeries would be just another great comeback story.

6) David Pollack, DE, Georgia
I know there's a sub-sect of you who's waiting to say "I told you so!" if Pollack goes high in the draft. And he very well might. He's a good pass rusher, he's been a strong defensive standout in the SEC in two of the past three seasons (2002 and 2004), and he doesn't take plays off. The knock on him is that he's "undersized", but his weight is comparable with just about everyone but Marcus Spears, and Spears is seen as being unusual in his weight for the position. So when Pollack gives up two inches to James but matches him in weight... I don't get Pollack being knocked for size. What does worry me about Pollack is how his 2003 season was way off. It reminds me of how DE Alex Brown tanked in his final year at the University of Florida and ended up falling all the way to the fourth round. Brown has turned out to be a starter for the Bears, but he missed out on a big payday. For Pollack he had a chance for redemption with his senior year, and he did come back with a force in 2004. But DE is a position that's rife with busts, and if Pollack is going to have seasons where he just disappears in the NFL, or if he proves to be an "okay" starter but not a superstar, then there's risk there. I hope Pollack goes on to have a great career, as I like the guy as a person, but I have reason to have some reservations at this point in time.

7) Matt Roth, DE, Iowa
There are too many things in his game that aren't quite up to par. He isn't fast, he needs to improve his tackling skills, and he's relatively new to the DE position. Because he's not a sack machine, he would likely lose out in a comparison with David Pollack, and actually I think it drops off a bit from Pollack at #6 to Roth at #7. If Cleveland is contemplating what DEs will be there at the top of round two, I think they'll probably see Roth and Justin Tuck at the top of the list there, unless a team is enamored with one of them and trades up to get them (a la Houston with projected second rounder Jason Babid last year at pick #27). Unlike some guys on this list, Roth doesn't have the athleticism to make up for a lack of technique and vice-versa. But, Roth is a 280 pounder who is quick off the snap, good against the run and both intense and able to maximize his physical skills on the field. My take: he's not good enough to be in the elite, but for a team that needs a DE who can get the job done and add a spark to their D-line, Roth is their guy.

8) Justin Tuck, DE, Notre Dame
Tuck has the upside to possibly be the best DE out of this list three years from now. No, I'm not trying to hedge my bets; I believe it depends on Tuck adding 15-20 pounds of muscle. He's another who "could play OLB in a 3-4", but unlike some of the guys above (Merriman, Ware, D. Cody), I think Tuck is better suited for DE. Because of his 6'5" frame, Tuck can bulk up to get the strength needed to battle the strong OTs of the NFL. Being Notre Dame's all-time sack leader is impressive, but to perform something similar in the NFL, Tuck will need to be stronger. I'm seeing Tuck at 6'5" 285 running a sub 4.7 40 (like he is now). That will help him improve against the run, which is a liability for him right now, and with the right coaching added in he could be a real superstar. If not, he could be just an average DE. If a team can devote coaching time and weight trainers to him, it should help on their investment. But for my money, I'd prefer the more safe bets of the guys above.

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