Lou Pickney's 2024 NFL Mock Draft

National Football League
Draft King Mailbag

Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.

Before I begin, a few notes. There will be no real-time commentary attempt like last year. That didn't work out so well. My computer and TV are in different rooms, and besides I want to be able to watch the draft, not dodge back and forth like a rat in a cage. I do plan on taking notes and writing my take of things, Bill Simmons style, after the draft, so be sure to check in here either late Saturday night or Sunday to see that.

I like your comments about Green Bay in the second round--THANK YOU for not putting them with a QB there. I would love to see Bullocks (FS) fall to the Pack in the second, but I agree with you that it's probably not likely. I've been hearing things about Alfred Fincher inside linebacker from Conneticut and Corey Webster cornerback from ??? as well. Your thoughts?

Lou: I find it interesting that Mike Nolan of the 49ers says that tipping his hand about the draft pick would make its value fall... and then his team goes out there and pushes very hard the idea that they're going to take Alex Smith. The two thoughts are mutually exclusive, so there's a swerve in there somewhere. Since there is logic to part one, I say Smith is the bait for a trade, but we'll all find out soon enough.

Corey Webster from LSU was at one point a prospect who looked like a first rounder, but he dropped to being a 2nd-3rd round prospect this year when he had to play without the help of the supporting cast in the secondary that helped LSU be co-national champs in 2003. If he's there for the Packers in Round 2, he would be someone to give some consideration to, though it depends on where the Packers feel their CB situations stands at this point, having used a first rounder on a CB last year.

From: JD Dittmer
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 9:18 AM
To: LouPickney@hotmail.com
Subject : Comment on your mock draft

Lou,

I really like your #18 pick for Minnesota to draft Matt Jones out of AR. I think this would be an awesome pick for us. Jones is just a freak of nature. 6'6", 242lbs and runs a 4.3 40?!? Everyone is talking about Mike Williams being the replacement for Randy Moss, but Jones would be a better choice. Replace a freak with a freak!

Lou: As intriguing as Matt Jones is as a WR prospect, I must respectfully disagree. Mike Williams is a vastly different player than Randy Moss is. They're both tall, but Moss relied on his speed to separate from defenders and his superior leaping ability to make big plays. For Williams, he doesn't have Moss' speed, but he can catch the ball better than Moss, and better than perhaps only a select few receivers, like Terrell Owens when he's on his game. Remember how Ed McCaffrey, pre MNF leg injury (on September 10, 2001) could catch anything, even if he was getting clocked going over the middle? That's Mike Williams, only Williams is better. Much better.

Physically, Jones and Moss are both freaks. A 6'6" 242 pounder who can run a 4.3ish 40? That doesn't exist... but it does if you're Matt Jones. What separates the two is that Moss had experience and training at WR, albeit in bits and pieces at Florida State and Marshall. But Matt Jones played the QB role in college, and it's hard enough for experienced college WRs to learn the routes of the pro game. Then again, you could argue that Jones should know all about the route system since he had to run the offense at Arkansas at QB, and now it's just a matter of learning the techniques and proper fundamentals of the actual routes themselves. If you have the guts to stand in the pocket in the SEC and deliver a pass as you get hit, you should have the moxie to be able to take a few hits in the secondary without whining too much.

But, as of now, Williams is still a superior prospect. But it will be fun to watch both of them in the NFL over the next few years. That's the nice thing about all of this: once the draft is over, we can enjoy watching them all play in the big leagues.

MULTIPLE E-MAILS ON THE SAME TOPIC

From: Derek Pavlakovich
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 9:53 AM
To: LouPickney@hotmail.com
Subject: Surtain to KC

Hi Lou:

In your latest mock draft update, you predict that the Chiefs trade their 3rd rounder to the Dolphins for Patrick Surtain. As this is a compensatory pick, the rules are that it cannot be traded. Also, with the Raiders receiving 2nd a 3rd round picks for Phillip Buchanon, Surtain's market value has likely increased. Thanks for doing the site, I enjoy reading your analysis.

From: Craig Lafferty
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 1:04 PM
To: LouPickney@hotmail.com
Subject: KC draft trade and philly draft trades

In your 2 round mock draft you had the Chiefs trading their 3rd round compensatory pick to the Dolphins for Surtain. I just wanted to tell you that compensatory picks are not able to be traded. So i cant even see KC dealing for him. As for philly, i see them moving cory simon on draft day, and the talk around philly is that they are interested in travis henry and darren howard. just interested in what you think of those moves and what they would have to give up to acquire either player. Thanks, you do good work.

From: Paul J. Evans
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 7:24 PM
To: LouPickney@hotmail.com
Subject: NFL Compensatory Picks....

Just a quick note Lou. I was checking out your 2 round draft and it looks pretty amazing. Lots of good stuff in there.

Being a Cowboy fan, I check their website daily and noticed a few weeks ago that someone there asked about Compensatory picks and suggested bundling them up for a trade. Mickey Spagnola (of DallasCowboys.com) mentioned that Compensatory picks could NOT be traded. I noticed several spots in your Mock where those types of picks are used for trades and figured I'd mention it to you......

Lou: Yes, you're all correct. This is a learning process for all involved, myself included, and compensatory picks can't be traded. So scratch that from the projected Surtain trade. As it is, it might cost Kansas City a second rounder now with Buchanon off the block, though it's not like the Chiefs were going to be making a trade with the Raiders. But perhaps Coach Saban can finally get the second round pick he wants so bad. It would help his cause to have another team bidding for his services, but the financial hit from Surtain is already steep to begin with, which has always factored into how much Miami can demand for him.

Philadelphia has the picks to make a run at either Travis Henry or Darren Howard. It might be the time for Arizona to go ahead and give in to Buffalo's demand of swapping second rounders to make the Henry for OT L.T. Shelton pick happen. With the needs that the Cardinals have, this is basically a freebie if they can get Henry, who is still a very young and capable RB. It's a potential steal of the off-season if they can get him for Shelton, and even if Philly is bluffing on wanting Henry, why even take a chance on them landing him?

From: loungefli11@yahoo.com
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 12:49 PM
To: LouPickney@hotmail.com
Subject: Detroit Lions

Whats up Draft King. I don't think the Lions are gonna take Barron at #10 anymore. SF didn't match the offer for the OL Koiser, so he ours now, more for depth I'm sure but who knows. First, I just dont see the Lions passing on DJ. Second, I see them going for a DE before an OT at #10. Also, why not include a trade scenario for Detroit in your mock, I could see us possibly moving up into the late 1st round like we did last year, and that sure worked out. Whats your take? Why pass on DJ? We do have depth at LB...but still, Holmes is getting old, and may even get cut for cap space.

Lou: You make a good point about the Lions and Koiser. I wish I knew what Detroit's take on Derrick Johnson was. It seems like some teams love him, but a few, for odd reasons, think he's overrated and won't take him high. When I redo my draft tomorrow I will think long and hard about DJ and Detroit.

As for mocking trades, check out my two-round 2005 mock for that. I tried a time or two doing that with my regular one-round mock, but quickly found that it wasn't worth the effort. People would overlook the note about "projected trade here" and moreover it called on me to not only predict where players would go, but also where GMs would pull the trigger on trades. That sort of guessing game is just that, a guessing game. If it's a situation like the Randy Moss trade where it's common knowledge but it can't go through for a few days, I'll put that in, but otherwise I prefer to wait for it to become official. Otherwise I'd find myself chasing rumor and conjecture, and that more often than not leaves me running in circles.

From: Nick Debono
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 1:34 PM
To: LouPickney@hotmail.com
Subject: Any Info on Stanford Routt?

Hey, love the updated mock, although I think Washington will go with a WR with that 25th pick. Anyways, I was wondering if you can give me any information on Houston CB Stanford Routt. Assuming that Jacksonville goes OT with their first pick, do you think Routt fits in with their second pick, or do you see them taking another CB (or another position altogether)?

Lou: The ESPNs and Sportslines of the online world have been playing up Washington taking a first round WR, but I don't think it's a given. I could imagine Daniel Snyder being told about Matt Jones, where the scouts think he'd go, and him going crazy wanting to get him and then working than rather one-sided deal with Denver (and when I say one-sided, I don't mean in favor of the Redskins). But then Jones might not even be there at #25.

Maybe that's not how it played out, but it does seem plausible, doesn't it? With the chance that maybe Mike Williams would drop to #9, and also the chance that some of the good WR talent in the second tier might be there at #25, perhaps Washington does want a piece of that action. But if that doesn't pan out, the runner-up prize isn't bad: a blue-chip CB at #9 and a great DE at #25 in a DE deep first round. People talk of Washington as if the Redskins still have two disgruntled WRs. No, one is gone; they have Santana Moss, and now they just need to get Ron Gardner happy. Oh, and LaVar Arrington, but let's get through the WRs first. To me it seems that with Gardner and S. Moss on board, acquiring a #3 WR would not be a top priority. But I'm also not a member of the Washington management team.

As for Houston CB Stanford Routt, he is great in the 40 (sub 4.4), but the knock on him is technique. The athleticism is there, which is important. Due to him not having the tools to step it and play right away, he's projecting as a 3rd/4th rounder, even though at 6'1½" he has the size to match his speed. But there are plenty of "track fast" guys coming out, and it's the guys who have natural instincts and more training at CB who are sorting out toward the first two rounds. So taking Routt in the second round would be a stretch, but as a third rounder he could be a nice addition for the Jaguars if they look elsewhere in round two. Personally I'd be inclined to look at CB talent on the board in round two, but if there's a great safety on the board, or a great overall player (not a QB or RB), that might trump everything, making someone like Routt in round three a very viable option.

From: Chris Willoughby
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 5:39 PM
To: LouPickney@hotmail.com
Subject: mock

Derrick Johnson will not fall past the lions at 10. I truly hope they do not select Barron, i think Kelly Butler who they drafted last year will turn out to be a pretty damn good OT.

Lou: Hmm, another vote for DJ going to the Lions. I'll have to really give that a close look for tomorrow's draft update.

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