Lou Pickney's 2024 NFL Mock Draft

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I totally agree with the Dallas Cowboys selecting Derrick Johnson at #11 if he's available....but if he's not there, I think they trade down. There is a group of pass rushing DE's in this draft and the analysts certainly are not coming to a consensus on whose better of the Merriman, James, Spears, Cody, Ware, Pollack group. Interestingly enough, I've seen Pollack as high as 10th on some analysts charts, and you don't even have him going in the 1st round. Unless Parcells is really sold on a guy...they should trade down. Same goes at the WR position. Edwards & Williams will certainly be gone...Is Williamson all that? How about Clayton? Too many question marks for me at #11, but I might take him at #14, 15, or 16. Really only San Diego and Minnesota behind them are interested in Wide Receivers..and they may already have theirs at pick #7 or higher if they trade up.

Lou: The closer we move to draft day, the more I become convinced that DE is the deepest position in the 2005 Draft. Much like WR was in 2004 (at least before the disqualification of Mike Williams), there are many players who can step in and make an impact right away. I've been mildly surprised by the amount of support for Pollack given via e-mail. The reason I have him sliding out at the moment is because of players who can play two positions (mostly DE/OLBs, but also Shaun Cody at DT/DE and Thomas Davis at OLB/S). If Pollack falls to round two, I very strongly suspect that Cleveland will snap him up at #34 (especially if it can trade down with Minnesota to be in a posiiton to take either Antrel Rolle or Pac Man Jones at #7). If it's not Pollack, then there will be some sort of DE-capable player who will be on the board there. If that's not the case, then some serious talent will have fallen and will be a major value pick there. Either way, Cleveland wins.

I know you wrote about Dallas, so let me address the Cowboys' situation. I think Williamson is an excellent prospect, and if Dallas doesn't take him at #11, I don't think he'll be there at #20. Is that a guarantee? No, this is the draft, and few saw Lee Evans going at #13 last year to Buffalo. In the end, it comes down to the evaluations made by a particular team on a particular player. What might make sense to the masses and to the majority of the teams in the NFL might not to one specific team. But if that team is the one on the clock... then that's all that matters.

As a Cowboys fan, if you hope that they draft at #20 (versus trading that pick), you probably should be more concerned about Minnesota at #18 and what that franchise is going to do. Right now I have them slated to take Roddy White, but that is under the "no trade" mock. In reality I think they'll move up with Cleveland to get their WR (either Braylon Edwards or Mike Williams). If they have to give up the #18 pick to Cleveland as part of it, beware the Browns potentially snapping up a WR at that spot (even though the team has many other needs, from OT to DE to ILB to CB).

Keep in mind also that rookie WRs rarely do much, and that the Cowboys might be better off going with a veteran versus drafting a guy high. It might not be a bad idea to go DJ at #11 (if he's really there) and then be able to take the best DE on the board at #20, regardless of his skills at the OLB position. That would give Dallas a boost on the side of the ball where Parcells wants it the most: on defense. The more I think about that, the more it seems like a very plausable idea. Dallas does not have a third round pick (due to the trade with Houston in 2004 which landed them Drew Henson), though trading down from #20 might be dangerous in that many teams in the 22-28 range could be gunning for DE talent.

From: Justin Lambert
Sent: Tuesday, April 5, 2005 2:18 PM
To: LouPickney@hotmail.com
Subject : Arizona and QB's

Arizona has already picked up a huge addition at QB this year. Why now would they draft a QB in this draft? Lets take a look back to early last season. Warner was the starter for the Giants. He racked up 5 of the teams total wins last year. The players responded well to his leadership. He had a good completion percentage. He only had 4 of his 268 passes thrown(while starter)picked off by the opposition. I would have to say that he was having a HOT season. True he only had 6TD thrown, but the team was WINNING. Kurt can definitely get the job done. It will be an exciting season to anticipate if you are a Cardinals fan. If this team wants to win they have to get someone who can run the ball. The areial show to watch will be in Arizona. Like I have said many times before, none of these QB's in this years draft are worth a top 20 pick. Arizona has a good Captain under center. Give him a year to do his job, and next year where there will be plenty of QB crop ARZ can pick their flavor. Lou provide me some insight on this....

Lou: Kurt Warner was a very nice pickup by Arizona, but let's face it, Warner has seen better days. He'll be 34 before the season starts, and while he can handle the job at that age, he's beginning to creep toward that older age zone where QBs begin to fall apart. I feel ridiculous writing that about a 34 year old, but that's life in the NFL.

Warner is someone who can start for Arizona and allow a year of grooming for a QB like Aaron Rodgers or Alex Smith, if Arizona opts to go with one of them at #8. Now if the Cardinals are unable to obtain Travis Henry from Buffalo on draft day, I could see them taking one of the "big three" RBs (Ronnie Brown, Cadillac Williams or Cedric Benson) at #8, and there has been talk of Arizona taking a CB at that spot. But after the QB merry-go-round of 2004, Warner could start all season in 2005, and then the rookie could take over in 2006. Remember how Dennis Green handled Daunte Culpepper's entrance into the Minnesota Vikings, with Culpepper not throwing a single pass in 1999 and then starting all 16 games for the team in 2000.

I'm not saying that this is what for sure will happen, but there's no need for Arizona to panic. If Buffalo tries playing hardball on draft day, to the point where Arizona has to cut off talks, the Cards can go with plan B -- taking a RB at #8 or a QB or CB if the Big 3 are gone. In round 2 (#44), grab an RB (Ciatric Fason maybe?) if an RB didn't go at #8, otherwise go defense with either a CB or DE/OLB.

You and I will have to agree to disagree on the assessment of Rodgers and Smith. Realistically, the top scouts have both rated high, and part of what I do is take personal opinions and put them to the side to a degree in trying to predict what a team will do, not what I think a team SHOULD do. In some cases what I've projected has involved teams and scouts coming around to my way of thinking (i.e. Mike Williams being as good, if not better, a prospect than Braylon Edwards; Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown being superior prospects over Cedric Benson, etc.) In short, I don't see it as a MUST that Arizona take a QB at #8, but with so many factors involved I think that it's a strong possibility. To not take one would be a bit like betting the "don't come" line in craps. Arizona would be gambling a bit that it would not have a very good record in 2005, putting itself in position to take one of the expected elite group of QBs coming in 2006. But Dennis Green didn't come to Arizona to lose, and I see him going in a direction that will best allow himself to win, both this year and in 2006.

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