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Lou Pickney's 2024 NFL Mock Draft


National Football League
Draft King Mailbag

January 24, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com

Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.


From: Don Pilgram
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 21, 2007 6:59 PM
Subject: Your Draft

I greatly appreciate the work and effort put into posting a mock draft.
I have to disagree with you about a couple of selections in yours.
No way does oft-injured Michael Bush go before Marshawn Lynch. As a Packer fan, I would upchuck if they chose Bush, not that I'm so enamored with Lynch, either.
Second, I would bet Patrick Willis, and maybe one of the FSU linebackers, go before Posluszny.
This doesn't have to do with your mock, but my feeling is that any team, starting with the Raiders, that passes on Calvin Johnson is making a huge mistake. The only player who comes close to having the talent for his position as Johnson is Joe Thomas, OT.

Lou: Perhaps Lynch will go before Bush -- we shall see. If both guys are healthy and run equal 40 times, I'd think Bush would be more appealing with his larger frame. It's true that Lynch had an excellent season at Cal in 2006, but if the speed is the same, I'd think a 6'3", 245-250 pound RB (Bush) would have the edge over a 5'11", 220 pound running back (Lynch.) Though, ultimately, it will be up to whichever GM has to choose between them. Perhaps Lynch's healthier past would make him more appealing than Bush, who could be a perfect change-of-pace to Leon Washington with the Jets. It's something to consider...

Patrick Willis is an excellent prospect who could make a big impact on the NFL. But, by the same token, Paul Pozluszny is an outstanding LB in his own right, and it may come down to which team drafting an LB has more need for an OLB (like Pozluszny would probably play in the NFL, at least in a 4-3) versus ILB with Willis.


From: wil27@earthlink.net
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 22, 2007 3:13 PM
Subject: Adam Carriker

Why do you have Marshawn Lynch dropping so far, to the Jets? Related: Doesnt Michael Bush still have alot of questions to answer about his health?; he might end up at the top of the draft, but I dont think he is there yet until he proves he has regained his athleticism at the combines.

I guess you don't think Adam Carriker is first round material? Because on paper he seems to be the ideal draft pick for the NY Jets. He fits their greatest need and seems to be the character-type guy that Mangini desires. Where do you see him going in the second round?

Lou: The placement of Michael Bush is based on him being healthy enough to compete at full speed and strength at the combine. If that's not the case, then Marshawn Lynch would likely pass him on most every board.

You raise a good point about the Jets and Adam Carriker. If there's one technicality to draw, it's that the placement in the draft isn't where I'd pick players or where I think they *should* go, but instead where I anticipate that they'll be drafted. It's a subtle difference, but I'm not a GM, and my concern is much greater about making as accurate of a prediction as possible about who will go where.

Because of his size, Carriker seems like a much better 3-4 fit than a 4-3, which is why I have him falling to round two under the present draft scenario. The Jets have Shaun Ellis and Bryan Thomas at DE, but adding Carriker certainly wouldn't hurt that situation. Is the need greater than that of a franchise RB? That can be argued both ways. A run-stuffing DE would be a nice addition, but Leon Washington took a great deal of punishment in 2006, and asking him to do that again would be a risky roll of the dice. There are other ways to bring in RBs (free agency, rounds two and beyond, etc.), but the likelihood of Bush and/or Lynch being there on the board would seem to make taking a running back the right thing to do. But Carriker is a perfect fit for their system... If nothing else, it gives the Jets options.


From: BACFOUR@aol.com
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 22, 2007 3:13 PM
Subject: Adam Carriker

(Part 1)

I saw this today on Fox Sports:

The Oakland Raiders are preparing to make a run at Falcons QB Michael Vick, according to NFL sources. The Raiders package would include receivers Randy Moss and Jerry Porter plus the No.1 overall pick in the 2007 draft for Vick and the Falcons first round pick (10th overall).

(Part 2)

i agree the trade seems to be Oakland dumping Porter and Moss, basicially to rid them of the problems with these two guys. I could see Vick for the #1 overall, but the rest is probably too big a trade for the NFL. But I could see Oakland trading Randy Moss this off season to someone for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. I don't think Vick is a good NFL QB, and I can't see him leading Atlanta to a Superbowl -- however he could be a good QB for the Raiders while they rebuild based on his running and scramble ability. Use Vick for a few years while they rebuild and aim for another QB in a year or two. He would sell tickets and at least make them better or more exciting to watch than they are now. In my opinion, Schaub would be a better fit for Petrino's offense...but as many first round draft picks they have at WR, the Falcons still need a go to receiver. Remember though that Petrino was an assistant at Jacksonville when Brunell was there, and Brunell was a scrambling left handed QB -- so he may want to give it a try with Vick as his QB.

Lou: This is spliced from a brief e-mail convo that Bacfour and I had, if nothing else to set the table on why the rumored trade would be almost impossible.

The idea that Oakland would give Randy Moss, Jerry Porter, and the #1 overall for Michael Vick and the #10 overall seems heavily weighted toward Atlanta. I'd think that with a trade to get Vick, the #1 pick would be needed to land Calvin Johnson, since the Raiders would be hurting big-time at wideout by losing Moss and Porter.

Michael Vick's 10 year, $130 million dollar contract restructuring took place in December 2004. It included a staggering $37 million bonus. Here's how I understand it: Pro-rated, the agreement would put just $3.7 million against the cap per year, unless Vick is traded or cut, in which case the remaining pro-rated portion would count entirely against the team's present year cap. Now, unless my math is wrong, the remaining $25.9 million would be added to the $3.7 million for a mega cap hit of $29.6 million on this year's cap (the new year in the NFL begins on June 1.) That doesn't even include what Vick's base salary counts against the cap.

I'm no cap expert, not even close, but from a simple dollars and cents point of view, it seems almost impossible. It's not as if the Vick and Moss signing bonuses can counter-act one another. It doesn't work that way in the NFL, which is way mega-trades almost never happen. Factor in the difficulty of handling having the #1 overall pick but only being slotted #10 pick money for the rookie cap, and it's enough to make Falcons' GM Rich McKay's head explode.

I can't seem to find any hard data on what the Falcons' cap level is at now, but with a total cap of $102 million, it would seem to me that trading Michael Vick would be cost-prohibitive. Also, Falcons owner Arthur Blank declared today that "There are no plans to trade or cut" Michael Vick. I think that settles that, at least for now...


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