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National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
January 28, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Canter Family
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 26, 2007 8:53 PM
Subject: Brady Quinn
Hi Lou, Love the site. quick question for you, is there any chance that Brady Quinn could fall to the 9th spot for Miami? I know Matt Leinart fell all the way to the 10th spot in last years draft.
Lou: Brady Quinn falling to Miami? It's unlikely, but it is possible. Matt Leinart's crazy drop in last year's draft showed that it can happen, and Leinart (in my estimation) was a superior prospect to Quinn. Leinart would've been the #1 overall pick in the 2005 Draft had he come out at that point, which goes to show how much variance there can be in the draft from year to year.
What would it take for Quinn to fall? Consider the scenarios for the teams drafting below Miami in a scenario with Quinn falling:
1. Oakland: Could take QB JaMarcus Russell, WR Calvin Johnson, or an outside shot at OT Joe Thomas.
2. Detroit: Could go with Russell, Johnson, or Thomas, or potentially a DE like Jamaal Anderson or Gaines Adams.
3a. Tampa Bay: Could pick Russell, Johnson, a DE (depending on Simeon Rice) or stretch to take a DT, though you'd think the Bucs would trade down for that (and the Bucs have two second round picks which could be used to land a young DT.) Keep in mind that Tampa re-signed Chris Simms, gave ample playing time to Bruce Gradkowski in 2006, and that Jon Gruden was very impressed with Troy Smith at the Senior Bowl.
3b. Cleveland: This would be a danger spot for Quinn to go if he's still on the board; if somehow no QBs go top three, they might go with Russell. If Quinn is passed here, options include Johnson, Thomas, Adrian Peterson, and Alan Branch.
5. Arizona: No QB need.
6. Washington: The Redskins only have one pick on day one, and this is it. Dan Snyder could surprise with Quinn here, but clearly that would be foolish and go against all logic of building with Jason Campbell. But the Redskins do things their way, so it's not outside the realm of possibility. D-line makes the most sense here.
7. Minnesota: The Vikings used a second round pick last year on Tarvaris Jackson, and taking Quinn here would be highly unexpected. The Vikings may not have many needs, but I couldn't see them going with Quinn when so many other high-end players who could contribute right away will be available. Dwayne Jarrett could go higher than expected here.
8. Houston: Quinn-to-Houston would be very very interesting, wouldn't it? David Carr is still under contract, and while other needs are pressing (offensive tackle, RB, defensive front seven QB blitzer) Quinn would be tempting. But Houston passed up on Vince Young, Matt Leinart, et al last year, and odds are that they won't expect Quinn to last this long.
The catch for Miami is that they have Daunte Culpepper's massive contract on their salary cap, which would seem to make drafting a QB at #9 cost-prohibitive. There aren't particularly any teams in the 10-20 range who would seem likely to break the bank to trade up to get a sliding Quinn, though Carolina could make a play depending on how the Panthers approach the backup QB position this off-season.
I doubt that Quinn will fall out of the top five, but drafting a first round QB is always a major investment, one that teams don't take lightly.
From: Nor Wei Ng
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 28, 2007 1:28 PM
Subject: Houston Texans Draft
I'm a Texans fan, and I know they are going to be an up and coming football team now that Kubiak has control of them as a coach. I like the fact that LaRon Landry is slated at the Texans at the latest mock draft, but is picking a safety that high really a good move? There are many needs that they have...practically every position on their football team. I'd like to see them solidify the running back position at 8 w/ Adrian Peterson. How possible is that? Also, there are rumors that both David Carr and Domanick Williams (formally known as Davis) will be gone via trade or release...what is realistic draft pick value we can get for both of those guys? One last question, Tony Ugoh, OT from Arkansas what round does he look to end up this year? He looks like a beast and does he even play LT? Alrite Lou keep up the good work.
Lou: LaRon Landry would be a major asset for Houston, bringing great run-defense, hard-hitting, and a nose for finding the ball with his game. The idea of a safety going high is one that some question, but last year there were two safeties chosen in the top eight picks, and I think that Landry is a better prospect that both Michael Huff and Donte Whitner were. With one pick, Houston would simultaneously upgrade its run defense and its secondary.
If Adrian Peterson falls, and there's a chance that he will, I think the Texans would have to take him over Landry. Some have knocked Peterson for being "injury prone", but the guy is about as strong of a prospect as you can find: 6'2", 220, running a reported 4.37 40. Lost in the Boise State/OU Fiesta Bowl game aftermath was that Peterson scored on the first carry from scrimmage in overtime (which, in part, lead to Boise State going for two) and that he had a solid performance coming back from his collarbone injury. He didn't have to play in that game, but he did, silencing some critics in the process. Some remain, but Peterson seems like such a sure thing that Houston passing on him would be surprising to me. The fallout from passing on Reggie Bush last year would seemingly push any tie-breaker in Peterson's direction in the war room.
Tony Ugoh is attracting a great deal of attention, though the knock on him is that he needs to improve his pass blocking skills. It's a tweener spot for him in that his pass-blocking needs to improve for him to be an ideal NFL left tackle, and some feel he needs to add bulk to be better at right tackle. At 6'6" 300 lbs he has the size to fit into the NFL, and I think some of the nitpicking is the typical pre-draft stuff that you hear on certain guys when people have to find something negative to say about a prospect. Ugoh played left offensive tackle for three years at Arkansas; Zac Tubbs was the right OT, and it will be interesting to see how RB Darren McFadden does in 2007 for the Razorbacks with three senior offensive linemen gone and right guard Robert Felton likely moving back to tackle, where he played in 2005.
As for Ugoh and the draft, he's a late first to early/mid second round prospect. If Detroit drafted Brady Quinn in round one, then picked up Tony Ugoh in round two, you'd have to think the Lions would be looking strong (at least on offense) with that combo.
NFL Draft Prospect Profiles
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