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National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
January 3, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Steve Millar
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 2, 2007 6:48 AM
Subject: (no subject)
I'm a Raiders fan and I'm just not sure Quinn is the way to go, even thou
we do need a QB.
I'm hoping the Raiders can pick up Matt Schaub in free agency or via a
trade and then take Adrian Petersen with the 1st pick in Round 1 and then
maybe Colt Brennan with the 1st pick in Round 2 ( and let him sit behind
Schaub and learn for a couple of years ).
What are your thoughts on Colt Brennan? I'm picking up vibes that he may
declare !!
Lou: Matt Schaub is a restricted free agent, and I strongly doubt that Atlanta would simply let him go (versus retaining his services and then attempting to trade him.) Schaub to Oakland is interesting, and it would definitely make sense for both clubs, so we'll see on that.
Adrian Peterson would be a great addition to the Raiders, or any team for that matter. But I would suggest that the addition of Peterson would help the offensive line look better... and help out whoever is quarterbacking the team in week one of the 2007 season. Rookie RBs usually learn the position the fastest, and if there's a team in need of fast offensive help, it's Oakland.
I've read conjecture that the Raiders will for sure go for an offensive player with the #1 overall pick. However, I still wouldn't count out a guy like Gaines Adams, who looks like such a great prospect. I'd say Peterson would make the most sense if Oakland refuses to go QB at #1, but don't count out Adams.
As for Colt Brennan, his 58 TDs to 14 INTs is certainly appealing, as is his 2006 season QB rating (129.6), which is even higher when you look at his final 10 games. At 6'3" he has NFL height, but he'll need to bulk up some from his reported 190-195 lb. weight, which is not enough muscle to handle the brutal pounding that quarterbacks in the NFL take. Most high-end QB prospects weigh in at 215-235, so Brennan needs to bulk up between now and the combine (and I'm not talking about "table weight" i.e. LenDale White.)
Brennan looks amazing stat-wise, but at least some of that is attributable to the June Jones system in Hawaii. But Brennan has accuracy, which is important. Plus, Brennan turns 24 in August, so it's not like he needs more time to mature. We'll find out what he decides on January 15.
Oakland should be able to land Brennan in the third round, as the size issue is going to hurt him in a year with so many great QB prospects vying for a very limited number of spots.
From: Peter McGough-Pose
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 3, 2007 12:16 AM
Subject: Minnesota Vikings Pick
You've got a great website. I love anything about the draft, and you have a
great insight to the draft each year. It's my first time sending a response
to the mock draft.
Anyway to my point. I've noticed that you have minnesota taking Calvin
Johnson at the 7th pick. Now this to me is the perfect pick for the Vikings,
they obviously need a great wide receiver with good hands and someone that
can pose a treat in the red zone. Calvin is a perfect fit for this role that
needs to b filled for the Vikes, he is an amazing athlete that is an instant
game changer. So i guess my only concern is the it's too good to be true. I
know the draft is a long way away and there are many differant things that
can happen between now and then (senior bowl, combine, etc.) but it seems
very hard to see six other teams passing up on a talent like Johnson. If
it's not to much trouble, maybe you could give me a simple run-down of how
the other teams might pick, and the simple reasoning behind it.
Lou: Thanks for the kind words. While Minnesota used a first round pick on Troy Williamson two years ago, WR depth is one of the few holes on the team.
I think very, very highly of Calvin Johnson, and it is possible that a team above Minnesota in the draft might take him. He could go #1 overall to Oakland, which would give the Raiders a second tall WR to go with Randy Moss. Detroit at #2 would be amusing, and I read an AP article that actually suggested that the Lions might take him, so who knows. Cleveland at #3/4 is a possibility, albeit somewhat unlikely. Don't count out Tampa Bay at #4, though the Bucs are deeper at WR than most people realize. Arizona doesn't need WR help at #5, while at #6 Washington is such a wild card that you can't say for sure with them, though I'd think that not having another pick until the fourth round would lead them to take a DL or LB.
In the draft, you never know if a player will for sure fall to you, and I wouldn't say CJ falling to #7 is by any means a lock. The 49ers lurking at #11 might make a move for CJ if he's on the board at #6 (particularly with Washington lacking any other day one picks.) It's tough to trade into and out of the Top 5, so from that aspect Minnesota might have some security in thinking that they wouldn't be as likely to be jumped by a team vying for Calvin Johnson.
From: Nick Patterson
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 3, 2007 5:33 AM
Subject: Mock
Being a Packer fan, the prospect of drafting a tough RB like Marshawn Lynch is very exciting. I also think it’s a great spot for him. As with most people though, I do have to disagree with you on one thing. There is no way Joe Thomas falls past Arizona. If you watched the Capitol One Bowl (you know I did), you would have seen an Arkansas defense that was embarrassing the Wisconsin offensive line, with the exception of Thomas. He dominated any DE that was on his side and he made it look easy. I understand LT isn’t as important to Arizona with Leinart being left-handed and all, but with a horrible offensive line it would be hard for them to pass on this humongous (6’8” 320) talent. Just my thoughts.
Lou: Joe Thomas is a great offensive tackle prospect. As far as him falling past Arizona, I think that decision is contingent on if the Cardinals resign OT Leonard Davis. The Arizona Republic reports that "Davis made more than $9 million in salary this year, and he's likely to command big money in free agency. The bonuses could hit $15 million." If the Cardinals sign a new deal with Davis, then Thomas would seem to be cost-prohibitive for the team. If not, then Thomas could be a perfect fit.
From: James Hudson
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 3, 2007 6:27 PM
Subject: oak
As a long time follower of the NFL and Raiders more specifically I
think these options need to be considered. Quinn would be a good
pick but you don't want to throw him to the wolves from day one. Joe
Thomas would instantly give them one of the most talented offensive
lines, whether they can put the talent to good use remains to be
seen. I don't think Peterson would be any better than Lamont Jordan
over the next few years because the problem is opening holes and not
running through the holes. Calvin Johnson would be nice but we have
seen what talented wide outs get you when your o-line sucks and you
don't have a decent QB. Another option is trading down but staying
inside the top 10 and getting several picks in return, yes it hurts
to lose out on Quinn but you could build your offensive and defensive
lines with those two positions being in good quantity, then you could
trade Moss or Porter and next years first rounder or two seconds for
Vick. Then the falcons and finally give Schaub a shot and with Moss
their offense looks pretty good and Oak and build a team that runs
the ball and gets Vick on the edge in passing situations where he can
run or throw and make Walter your long term backup.
Imagine moving Gallery to guard on the same side as Thomas? Or put
Thomas at Right Tackle and move Walker inside. Wow? If you draft
Quinn you have to give that Line 6-8 weeks to get the kinks worked
out even if you start out 2-5.
That's the order, Quinn, Thomas, or trade.
Lou: I agree that throwing a rookie QB to the wolves right away is not the answer in most situations. However, Adrian Peterson is an amazing athlete who has strong potential for success, whereas LaMont Jordan has averaged a paltry 3.8 yard per carry in each of his two seasons in Oakland. Remember how LaDainian Tomlinson was able to do amazing things right away for the Chargers despite their offensive line being horrid in 2001? This could potentially be a similar situation for AP, particularly if the right coordinating pieces are added to improve the offense.
Michael Vick's contract makes trading for him cost-prohibitive, as I've mentioned before. Oakland trading for Vick's teammate Matt Schaub actually makes more sense, if Oakland is inclined to take the trade route. The typical approach for the Raiders has been to take a QB via free agency (e.g. Rich Gannon, Kerry Collins, and Aaron Brooks.)
I admit that the idea of Joe Thomas and Robert Gallery as twin tower tackles is very enticing, but from a financial standpoint I don't know if the Raiders can afford to put so much money into the tackle position. I wouldn't think that Gallery would be a good fit at guard; the Raiders had him at right tackle his first two seasons, and 2006 was his first season at left tackle. He is under contract through 2010, at the following rates.
2007: $975,000
2008: $1,300,000
2009: $1,625,000
2010: $1,625,000
Gallery received an $18,000,000 signing bonus in 2004; if the Raiders were to cut him, the pro-rated remainder of that bonus would hit the Raiders on the current cap. I'd be very surprised if Gallery was not on the team through the 2008 season, at the very least.
It seems similar to Cleveland's situation in that the team already has one highly paid offensive tackle, and breaking the bank to get two could cause harm in retaining key players at other positions.
From: Jason German
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 3, 2007 10:40 PM
Subject: Big Russell
As I sit here and watch LSU destroy ND I find myself joining the group
of people who think Russell should jump to the nfl. I have been a huge
Russell fan since his redshirt freshman year when he split time with
Marcus Randall. He has all of the physical tools (actually he is a
beast) and may have the most amazing gift of arm strength since Brett
Farve. Watching him destroy the ND secondary (and admit isn't the
hardest thing to do) showed me he is a lot more seasoned and understands
the game more than I thought. I think he should and will pull a Vince
Young and ride his momentum into a top 10 pick in this years draft.
Oh yea what do you think about Brian Leonard from rutgers? And this guy
Hester (forgot his first name) from LSU is a Brian Leonard clone. Plays
rb fb and h-back and lead LSU in rushing this year.
Lou: If JaMarcus Russell doesn't go to the NFL, I'll be surprised. His performance against Notre Dame last night was very impressive, and while the Fighting Irish have allowed some teams to put up big points on them this year (Michigan, Michigan State, and USC come to mind) it doesn't diminish Russell's success in a major spotlight game.
Russell has great size and accuracy, two traits that should (rightfully) endear him to NFL teams. He has played against some great defenses while at LSU, though obviously the NFL will be much more difficult. But his poise under pressure has been great,
If there's a knock on Russell, it's that he's not exactly a lightning fast guy, with reports on his 40 time ranging from the mid 4.7s to 4.8. C'mon, he's 6'6" 255, what do you expect? Not everyone has Vernon Davis' ridiculous size/speed combo. But there will be some who will stereotype Russell as a good runner based on his race, kind of like what happened a little bit with Byron Leftwich.
Comparisons have been made of Russell to Daunte Culpepper, but Culpepper ran a 4.6 40 coming out of college. Russell's biggest challenge on the NFL level will likely be handling the blitz, since his poor mobility will tempt teams to pressure him in the pocket.
It will be most interesting to see if Russell ends up going before Brian Brohm (or even Brady Quinn) in the draft. I see it as Quinn, Brohm, Russell, but clearly there are pros and cons to all three that could leave various GMs with differing opinions. Plus there's always Troy Smith to consider.
And, until 1/15, we won't know definitively if Russell (or Brohm for that matter) will decide to forego one last year in college to try out the NFL. I personally don't see what Russell has to gain by staying; unlike guys with accuracy or maturity issues, another year at QB at LSU won't allow Russell to suddenly become a faster runner.
Brian Leonard has the look of a day one pick, probably in the third round range. As for Jacob Hester, he has one year remaining at LSU, and I'd expect him to return there for next year. If he comes out, it would depend on how he performs in the combine. His speed is listed between 4.6-4.73, so I don't see him having the speed to get a lot of carries in the NFL, but that is okay as he is a fullback. He is an unselfish special teams standout who could fill a few roles in the NFL. Hester would probably be no more than a fourth round pick if he came out for the 2007 Draft.
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