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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
October 30, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Christopher Hancock
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Oct 28, 2007 11:01 AM
Subject: '08 draft
Love your site, I follow it frequently. I’m a Texans fan, but not your typical one. I think drafting Mario Williams was a good idea and I don’t think the O-line is the worst in the history of organized football.
With Carr gone and Schaub in, the Texans have the 6th-best sack rate in the league. Remember when Bledsoe was starting for the Cowboys, everyone ragged on their O-line? With Romo in they’re sporting the 5th-best sack rate. I’ve come to believe, after watching many Texans games, that sacks have a lot more to do with QBs than people tend to suggest. Meanwhile, Carr is getting passed over in Carolina by a guy who has had a copy of the playbook for 2 or 3 weeks… and it’s not because Carr’s back is still hurting, as he practiced every day this past week. So I don’t think the LT spot for the Texans is something than needs immediate, without-a-doubt-drafting-a-LT-in-the-first-round attention. That said, if Jake Long or Sam Baker are sitting there on the board when the Texans draft, I think they need to grab them.
What I feel are more pressing concerns for the Texans are the secondary, outside-backer and running back positions. We can probably plug-and-play with the running backs, but the secondary and defense are atrocious. DeMarcus Faggins might be the worst cornerback to start in the league the past 5 years. He is absolutely terrible, and can’t even be trusted to cover a tight-end, much or less a WR3. And yes, I know I am saying this about a player who plays in the same league as Jason David – he is that bad. He gives huge cushions to receivers because he doesn’t have the speed to keep up with them, but it doesn’t matter because he ends up getting burned on the short passes as well. Cornerback seems to be the biggest boom/bust position in the draft, so I wouldn’t be terribly excited over them drafting a CB, as much as I am starting to cringe at Faggins’s play.
C.C. Brown is a joke of a safety as well. I was pining for LaRon Landry in last year’s draft, but Okoye seems to be living up to the hype (atleast to a reasonable amount). I’d still like to see a safety drafted on the new Day One. It’s just too bad we only have one pick this year on Day One, since ATL has our 2nd-rounder this year also. The Texans really need to nail their Day One pick this year to keep making progress in the toughest division in pro football, which is another reason I’d rather them not go after such a boom/bust position as CB.
Linebacker would please me more than CB and maybe even safety, and but this doesn’t seem to be a stunning class for outside linebackers. If the Texans draft around 12 to 20, I think linebacker is the way to go, maybe unless Phillips or Baker/Long are there, even if it means taking a college inside-linebacker to play at outside-linebacker. Unless DeMeco Ryans gets a hit on them, running backs destroy the Texans when they get past the D-line. The Texans are currently 27th in the league in allowing 10-yard-plus runs, and that can be blamed primarily on the linebackers. Keith Rivers would be more than welcome to don a Texans jersey. After Keith Rivers, I don’t think there’s an OLB in college that can play OLB in the pros better than a college MLB like Laurinitis (OSU), Maualuga (USC), or Conner (Penn St) could. Maybe that’s a draft faux pas, but there are worse problems that you could have than having two NFL-caliber middle linebackers on the field for your team at the same time.
The biggest problem on offense is that there’s Andre Johnson and everybody else. Owen Daniels is a good tight-end, and Schaub has gotten by with the likes of Andre Davis and Kevin Walter, but it makes me nervous as hell. A definite need is another receiver opposite Andre Johnson. Maybe Jacoby Jones is that guy, but he’s been hurt a little too often this year to get on the field and guarantee that his position won’t be targeted in future drafts. I think we’d be best-served by once again addressing the defense in Round One, and WR2 might be a position that’s targeted – once again – by a 3rd-round selection that will likely be a bit of a reach. Hey, Steve Smith (Carolina) was a 3rd round receiver… I don’t see a 1st-round receiver worth a 12-20 selection, although someone will be dumb enough to select DeSean Jackson in the first. Hopefully that’s not the Texans. Running back could be addressed, and maybe someone like Felix Jones or Ray Rice will make their way to the third round. Okay – Rice getting there is a stretch, and Felix Jones will probably be best served by staying in college another year to get his name out of the Darren McFadden spotlight. Forgive me for dreaming a bit.
The Texans have shown recently that they are willing to go against the (oftentimes) irrational demands of their fans if they truly think they can win with their controversial decisions. Mario Williams is working out pretty well – better than the ESPN conglomerate will give him credit for – and I’m glad that we don’t have Reggie Bush running 15 yards sideways for a 2 yard gain. So hopefully they can do what I think is the right thing, and address the safety or OLB positions to create what should be a smothering defense for the next 5 years.
Lou: You're right that there is a degree of responsibility on sacks that must be assumed by the quarterback; that is in no small part why release speed is so critical for a QB.
That's an interesting take on the Texans' secondary. I had thought that LaRon Landry would be a nice fit for them last year, though obviously Washington beat them to the punch there. In this case, given Texas' projected draft position (as of now), it looks unlikely that there would be a safety worth taking at their spot. Kenny Phillips would be a nice addition, but taking him too early could be a mistake. Perhaps the move in that case would be to trade down, though there is plenty of time remaining before the end of the season where that could change.
Clearly a blue chip RB is needed in Houston. Forget Reggie Bush and the past; looking toward the future, taking a first round RB might be a wise choice, particularly given the talent likely to be available at running back in this draft. Taking a RB in the top ten (outside of Darren McFadden) might be a poor choice, but that's what trading down is for.
I disagree about the outside linebacker class; if the eligible high-end linebackers come out, there will be a wide selection of talented LBs available, particularly in the middle-to-end of the first round. Keep in mind that Dan Connor and James Laurinaitis are MLBs who could play OLB at a high level in the NFL.
You're right about DeSean Jackson, I think, but I think he will be taken by a team that will be unable to pass on his speed and special teams abilities. If Ted Ginn, Jr. was able to make it into the top ten last year, all bets are off at this point.
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