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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
November 14, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Patrick Pickney
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Nov 11, 2007 7:19 PM
Subject: Earl Bennet
I was wondering where you think some people might go in the draft because i didn't see them on Draft King.
#1 Earl Bennet from Vanderbilt If he decides to go. Being a Vandy fan i love this guy. He is only a Junior and Vandy cant afford to lose him.
# 2 Dennis Dixon, QB, Oregon Since the beginning of the season i have said that he is the best quarterback in the NCAA. It might just be the system, or the fact that he has Jonathan Stewart and Jaison Williams helping him out but he is fun to watch. He reminds me of Vince Young with his mobility. I just thought that a guy with that much potential would be a sure first round. On the other hand Vince Young has taken his lumps this year and that might be scarring some teams away from taking a QB like him.
#3 Colt Brennon I was also was wondering your take on Colt Brennen. Is it lack of competition or is he that good?
#5 Trindon Holiday LSU Receiver I know that he is a Sophmore but i was wondering how high do think Trindon Holiday would go next year?
#6 Erik Angie is he good enough to play in the NFL?
#7 Felix Jones Arkansas. His stats are better than Dmacs.
Lou: My cousin sent me this; when your friends and family know that you run an NFL Draft site, they sometimes get in on the fun.
1. Earl Bennett would likely be a second round pick if he came out early, though depending on off-season workouts he could possibly catch the end of the first round. His best bet is to return to Vanderbilt for another season (and not just for the extra year of free, world-class education), improve his consistency, and get ready for the 2009 NFL Draft. There are some great wideouts that will be in this draft who I don't have on the first round board (like Limas Sweed and Bubba Caldwell), and particularly if guys like DeSean Jackson, Malcolm Kelly, and James Hardy come out, Bennett would be well advised to improve his technique, gain another year of experience in SEC play, and be a strong first round prospect in 2009.
2. It sounds like you were ahead of the curve on Dennis Dixon. The problem for Dixon is that the odds are that there may only be three QBs taken in round one, and moving past Andre Woodson, Brian Brohm, or Matt Ryan is going to be tricky. Can he work from under center with a three or five step drop in a typical NFL system? I imagine so, but the off-season workouts should be telling on that.
3. Colt Brennan could be as high as a second rounder, but my guess is that he'll last until round three. He doesn't have a rocket arm, and he's not a scrambling threat. While he has put up huge numbers in Hawaii's system, he will be challenged to edge out guys like John David Booty, Eric Ainge, etc. in the second tier. Brennan has good accuracy, even on the run, which helps his case, but the reality is that with so much QB talent in the mix, he is likely to fall further than it might have looked earlier this year. The nasty concussion he took against Fresno State last week didn't help things, either.
4. There was no question four, but it warrants mentioning that while the latest Draft King mock only has two offensive tackles going in round one, it wouldn't surprise me to see three or four go. Gosder Cherilus' stock has fallen, but with his size he could work his way back in there. Boise State OT Ryan Clady has drawn a wide variety of opinions, but if he comes out early he could also end up as a first rounder.
5. Trindon Holliday is a fascinating player due to his incredible speed. He runs a legit sub 4.3 40. You hear that sometimes and it tends to be a stretch of the truth, but Holliday has speed unlike anyone else in college football today.
The problem is that Holliday is tiny. At 5'5" (or 5'6" for those giving him an extra inch) and 160 pounds (sometimes listed as 170), he simply doesn't have NFL level size for a wide receiver. He may have a future as a punt/kick returner, but as a receiver it's going to be very difficult for him to gain separation from corners who will chuck him hard at the line (or muscle him in going for a deep ball.) If he lands in the NFL as a punt returner, I sure hope he is judicious in calling for fair catches.
Maybe he'll be taken as a flier in the round 4-6 range, but it would be a mistake for any team to draft him with the thought that he can line up at wideout except for rare gadget plays or Hail Mary passes.
6. Erik Ainge is definitely NFL caliber. At 6'6" he has great height, but he doesn't have a cannon arm. His play is inconsistent at times, but his accuracy is good and he certainly has proven that he can play well in the most hostile of environments. I'd look for him to go in the round 3-4 range, depending on how he does in the pre-draft battery of tests.
7. In the time since you wrote me, Felix Jones has been added to the mock -- at the #12 spot, no less. That was probably an overdue move, and while I suspect that Jones may return to Arkansas, this site operates under the assumption that all juniors will come out. Even when a guy like USC middle linebacker Rey Maualuga claims that he plans to return for his senior season, he could easily change his mind between now and January.
From: Charlie Caswell
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Nov 14, 2007 1:22 PM
Subject: Difference in Dixon and VY
I was just wondering what you believe are the differences that make Dixon and
Vince Young that different in the fact that Dixon is not getting the buzz that
Vince got in terms of draft talk. I know that Dixon has not been as good for
as long as Vince was but they seem to have the same awkward throwing motion as
well as being quick. Vince had a better set of receivers and offense to work
with at Texas which would explain the numbers. I understand that he is
thinner, and does not have the experience having spent the summer playing for
the Atlanta Braves, but would that not develop more upside for him, or does
that make it more a risk to draft him and he ends up playing baseball? Just
wanted to know your thoughts thanks.
Lou: Vince Young proved himself to be a special player while at Texas; he simply refused to lose. I vividly recall a game from his sophomore year where he seemingly willed his team to beat Kansas with a late drive. He did have some great players there as part of his supporting cast, but the flip side is that Dennis Dixon has an elite RB in the backfield in the form of Jonathan Stewart.
From a pure stats perspective, here is how Vince Young 2005 compares with Dennis Dixon 2007:
Young: 6'5" 230 4.45
Dixon: 6'4" 205 4.60
But it's not stats or numbers that made Young go in the draft before Matt Leinart in April 2006 -- it was more than that. Young had an intangible ability to elevate those around him, to lead in a special way, and to win at any cost. There's a reason Vince Young played in the Pro Bowl as a rookie -- he had the total package, particularly once he learned the playbook and adjusted to NFL level coverage.
Dennis Dixon is also impressive in his own right, but he has not proven that he can play in a standard NFL style system. Add into that his flirtation with baseball, his lack of a long-term track record of success before 2007, and his slighter frame, and he grades out as a low first round pick at best versus being a top five or ten selection.
Dixon could end up turning into an outstanding NFL QB. But, at this point, he's not nearly the lock for success that Young was coming out of Texas.
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