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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
November 28, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Josh Obergfell
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Nov 27, 2007 3:42 PM
Subject: (no subject)
Hey lou
real quick question what would it take for the cowboys to darren McFadden
Lou: The Cowboys lost their shot at McFadden when the Cleveland Browns started playing winning football. Derek Anderson, arguably the most surpising player in the NFL this year, has helped turn the Browns into an offensive machine. The pre-season clamoring from Browns fans wanting Brady Quinn suddenly quieted when Anderson had that memorable breakthrough game (20-33, 328 yards passing, 5 TDs) in week two against Cincinnati, and the team hasn't looked back since then. Jamal Lewis has returned to his pre-federal prison form (4.1 yards per carry) and the Browns' 2008 first round pick isn't nearly the prize that it seemed to be in August.
If there's an upside for the Cowboys, it's that the draft is likely going to be loaded with RB talent. No, McFadden won't be an option for them, but if they look to let Julius Jones go without making an effort to retain him, there should be some great talent for them to choose from with one of their two first round picks.
From: Matt Segerman
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Nov 28, 2007 2:14 PM
Subject: raiders pick
now i know that that calais cambell would be a huge help but i honestly think that we would get sedrick ellis instead and hope that lawrence jackson is there in the 2nd round....my reason for thinking ths is 1 they played side by side for a while they no how each other plays and lane kiffin knows there potential.....what do you think?
Lou: It is easily conceivable that the Raiders would opt to take Sedrick Ellis over Calais Campbell. Warren Sapp is living off of past accolades (and even in his prime, he was a liability against the run), is 36, and has base salaries in excess of $5 million per year for the remainder of his contract. DT Gerard Warren is a castoff from Denver (which tells you something considering how porous the Broncos run defense has been this year), and perhaps the chance to land Ellis would outweigh the value that Campbell would bring to the table.
Of course, Campbell could potentially be moved to DT with his freakish size, much like what the Rams did with Adam Carriker, but a natural DT might be more fitting for Oakland. But Ellis does have the connection with Lane Kiffin from their days together at USC, which is a very valid point. I'll take that under advisement when I next redo the mock draft.
From: Alex Hodo
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Nov 28, 2007 4:25 PM
Subject: (no subject)
I love your draft. It seems like your one of the only sites that has valuable opinions. However, I do wonder about the St. Louis draft pick. Why, even with injuries, would the St. Louis Rams entertain the idea of drafting a LT, when they just spent so much on Orlando Pace’s new contract extension? Why would they draft a round 1 backup or a future LT starter when they have bigger immediate needs?
Why would the Patriots take another RB when they already have a great backfield and have more immediate needs on defense such as corner back and linebacker?
Lou: Thanks for the compliment, though I believe that there are other NFL draft sites out there that also have valid and valuable opinions worthy of consideration. The more analysis and information that is available, the better informed everyone is relative to the draft -- and in particular on what his or her favorite team might do.
As for the Rams and Pace, they did pay a large amount of money to keep him on board. But remember that most NFL contracts are not guaranteed. Pace is slated to make $5,175,000 in 2008, $5,975,000 in 2009, $7,175,000 in 2010, and $8,375,000 in 2011. And, at 32 and being waylaid with injuries in consecutive seasons, it's entirely possible that the veteran might see 2008 be his last year with the team, depending of course on how he can perform and his ability to stay healthy.
There are other needs for the Rams, to be sure, not the least of which is defensive end. If they have a chance to draft Virginia DE Chris Long, I think they could very well do it. But if not, it's not like they need a QB (who would be very expensive), Steven Jackson is an elite RB, and beyond that it would be questionable to stretch to take a need spot in the top five.
If the Rams end up outside the top five, maybe they'll trade down, but as I've said time and time again, trading into and out of the top five is VERY difficult and extremely tough to pull off because of salary cap issues.
As for the Patriots and their great fortune with the San Fran first rounder, the problem is that there is not a LB or CB worthy of selecting in the top five. Laurence Maroney is a solid RB, but having Maroney *and* McFadden in that backfield would be sick. They might stretch to take a LB like Dan Connor or James Laurinaitis, but if they end up in the top five, it's going to be very tough to deal down below the #5 spot, for reasons explained above.
Plus, if the Pats draft McFadden, that means another team can't land him and use him against them. I can tell you from seeing him in person that McFadden is the real deal and something very special. I was very high on Adrian Peterson last year (even with the collarbone injury), but I'm even higher on McFadden. He can do it all.
What might make the most sense in a value and need combo would be the Patriots drafting Michigan OT Jake Long, but they may not be in a position to do that depending on what the teams in front of them do.
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