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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
December 24, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Big Daddy Cool
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 22, 2007 10:07 AM
Subject: Dolphins
Love the site!
What do you think the possibility of Miami trading down out of the #1 spot? ?Word towards a bunch of second round picks and going nuts on the lines? The QB and RB are young so we can wait there, WRs are passable. The lines need love some kinda bad!!
Lou: There's a fresh article up about how Parcells will impact the Dolphins, but a close at trade possibilities may reveal just how difficult it will be for Miami to move the #1 pick. The team's second round pick seems ripe for trading for a number of reasons, but the #1 overall slot is going to be tough to move out of for Miami.
 | Orlando Pace has great balance. (WD/Icon SMI)
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Where Miami could find a suitor is a scenario where both the Falcons and the Ravens end up in the top five. The Falcons are clearly in the market for a starting quarterback, or at least someone to develop into that role. For Baltimore it's a little bit more complicated, but unless Troy Smith puts on a dazzling performance in the final two Ravens games of the year, I would think that the Ravens would also want to land one of the "Big Three" QB candidates: Matt Ryan, Brian Brohm, and Andre Woodson.
If both the Falcons and the Ravens want the same QB, or at least want first dibs at one particular guy, they might be willing to work a deal with Miami to secure the player they want.
But if it's just one of those teams in the mix, I would strongly suspect that there would be no bidding war. That's just the reality of things when everyone knows how hard it is to trade into the top five for rookie salary cap reasons, let alone the goods that a team would have to give up to make sure a move.
The St. Louis Rams (a very likely top five candidate) could use a number of spots, but the best need/talent matchup for them would appear to be OT Jake Long. Considering how injury-prone Orlando Pace has been, and that he's 32 years old, the Rams need to plan for the future at the left offensive tackle spot. Pace has been one of the best offensive linemen in the past two decades, but eventually time catches up with everyone.
Expect to hear a large number of scenarios in the coming months regarding the #1 overall pick. But, barring someone bringing something ridiculous to the table as an offer for it, I anticipate that the pick will remain with Miami.
From: Danny Stone
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 23, 2007 10:52 AM
Subject: Top 5 QB's
Looking forward to another high-impact draft this year. It seems like we're going to have another below-average QB draft class. That is if you compare it to the 2006 class. I know you like Ryan, Brohm, and Woodson but where do you have Oregon's Dixon slated. In the few games I saw him play in this year he was amazing. I know the spead offense he played in doesn't really help his cause but I really think he would give Woodson a good run as the top ranked QB's in '08. Here's what I see with the QB's:
1. Andre Woodson
2. Brian Brohm
3. Dennis Dixon
4. Matt Ryan
5. Colt Brennan
What do you think?
There is concern beginning to creep up surrounding the release time of Andre Woodson. Yes, we're to that nitpicking point of the season, but a slow pass release ultimately doomed the career of David Carr, so it's not as if the concern is unwarranted. In 2006 and 2007, Woodson threw 67 passing TDs to just 11 interceptions.
Brohm was a proven commodity last year, and he should be able to make a quick adjustment to the NFL. As for Dennis Dixon, how he is able to recover from his torn ACL between now and April will have a major impact on where he will go. I strongly doubt Dixon is first round material at this point, as a torn ACL on a rushing QB is bad news. He looks more like a third rounder, or even an early fourth rounder, as of now. Sometimes life isn't fair.
While there are many opinions out there about Matt Ryan, he has a prototype NFL build and improved his accuracy tremendously in 2007. Barring injury, he could easily end up as the first QB taken in the 2008 Draft. In the views of most scouts I've read reports from recently, Ryan is #1 at QB almost across the board. He has the height that Brohm lacks, the quick release that I've already mentioned about Woodson lacking, and he had great success on a BC team that didn't necessarily have the same tools at wide receiver that Woodson had at Kentucky and Brohm had at Louisville.
As for Colt Brennan, he is about 20 pounds lighter than most of the others in the top QB territory. He posted some great numbers at Hawaii, but is he durable enough to handle an NFL-level beating? That is what Brennan will have to convince GMs of between now and April.
From: Justin Hansen
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 23, 2007 11:29 AM
Subject: Vikings QB Situation
I'm surprised the Vikings didn't show up in your list of teams to watch in the QB mix. Is there a particular reason?Do they not have the cap room? Tarvarius Jackson is young and if he's given the time to develope could be a solid starter, but wouldn't the Vikings have to look seriously if given the chance to get McNabb? Given the good O-Line, solid D, and amazing backfield all they need is a legit QB (ok and a WR) that is ready now to make a run in the NFC.
Lou: Minnesota clearly needs to make a move at QB, with Tarvaris Jackson proving inconsistent at best (though he is in his first year of full action) and the backups not having much more luck. Sidney Rice is developing as a WR threat, and he'll only get better, but ultimately adding another strong wideout to the mix would be wise.
In hindsight, I should have included the Vikings in the list, and there are rumors swirling about Minnesota possibly making a move to acquire Donovan McNabb this off-season. It has surprised me for a couple of years now that a team as talented as the Vikings has been unable to put all of the pieces together.
From: Patrick Iversen
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 23, 2007 1:54 PM
Subject: Linebackers in 2008 Draft
There's no doubt that there are some great linebackers in the draft this year, particularly potential first-rounders. Dan Connor and James Laurinitis are the big names, but one LB I haven't heard much about is Colorado's Jordan Dizon. Dizon won the Big 12 defensive player of the year in 07, and is one of the best LBs in the nation, and yet his name hasn't been mentioned in many draft discussions. Why do you think that is? Also, if both Laurinitis and Connor are taken before Denver's pick rolls around, what's their best option left on the board at the LB position?
|  | Will James Laurinaitis enter the 2008 NFL Draft? (Aaron Josefczyk/Icon SMI)
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Lou: There are a number of great LB prospects in the draft, from natural linebackers like Dan Connor, Keith Rivers, and James Laurinaitis, but also from DE/OLB hybrid threats like Quentin Groves (who is an incredible game-changer when he's healthy.)
I've referenced Dizon on here a few times, the most recent time earlier this month in discussing how Dizon will have a chance to make an impression against Alabama in the Independence Bowl. Dizon had an outstanding career at Colorado, but as I mentioned in the aforementioned article, size (6'0") and speed (4.65ish) puts him behind many of the other higher touted linebacker talents.
As for Denver, when the new mock comes out, they'll be in the #10 spot, which should give them a wide variety of choices. While a DT like Sedrick Ellis would be a great fit, if he's not available then I could easily see the team going with either a blue-chip linebacker or perhaps with University of Miami free safety Kenny Phillips. John Lynch will turn 37 in September of next year, and while he has had a long, productive career, a replacement for that spot needs to be groomed sooner as opposed to later.
It would seem unlikely that both Connor and Laurinaitis would be gone by the time that the #10 pick comes up, but if they are and if Denver is dead-set on taking a first round LB, then USC OLB Keith Rivers would be the most logical fit for the spot. But, in reality, if Connor and Laurinaitis are off the board by #10, it means that some high-end talent would be on the board for Denver to potentially snap up (or, alternately, use as bait for trading down.)
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