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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
December 7, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Matt Segerman
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 5, 2007 8:01 PM
Subject: rumor
rumors now is that monte kiffin might be comin to oakland to coach the D under his son lane kiffin ...if this happens any thought that we go to a 3-4 or have a different list of prospects to look at?
Lou: The New York Daily News mentioned this rumor, though at this point it appears to be mere speculation. Remember that Monte Kiffin has stayed loyal to the Bucs through thick and thin. He passed up a chance to become the head coach of the 49ers in 2003, and he is making $1.7 million per year, which is high among assistant coaches.
It would seem logical that Monte would like to coach with his son. If he came in, it would likely be with the stipulation that he be able to install his "Tampa 2" defense on the Raiders. That defense is built primarily on the ability of the front four to bring pressure on the QB, and the Raiders defense should be able to do that. If they are able to add a player like Miami DE Calais Campbell in the draft, that would make them all the more able to implement that system.
The Raiders are 30th against the run, and something needs to change as far as either the alignment or, more likely, the personnel at DT. Warren Sapp is well past his prime, and Gerard Warren has merely been filling space. There should be some defensive tackle talent on the board in round two that would be reasonable given the draft position, and it's possible that the Raiders could take a guy like USC OT Sam Baker in round one (particularly if the Raiders end up ahead of the Chiefs) and then look to the interior defensive line in round two.
From: Scott Anonymous
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 6, 2007 11:27 PM
Subject: Colt Brennan, Pats, Texans
Hey Lou, why don't college "system" quarterbacks like Colt Brennan get more respect? People use cliches about "establishing the running game" and whatnot and call them keys to winning a game, but I tend to side more with footballoutsiders.com and Ron Jaworski, and hold the opinion that passing is more important in the professional game. So why doesn't it follow that these quarterbacks in college - that EVERYONE knows attempt to pass 7 or 8 times out of 10 - are highly-sought in the professional ranks? Obviously I don't mean ALL of them - 5-10" QBs are few and far-between in the NFL. But when a kid is 6'3" or so and does what Colt Brennan does, why aren't people all over them?
I don't see the Pats taking D-Mac at #2 overall. Not when the Pats took a RB in the first round two years ago. But it's hard to predict what a team THAT good does with a pick THAT high. I guess it sucks for you; if you are making a mock draft and you miss on the #2 overall pick, you could really screw up predictions for the rest of the draft! I'm not a big fan of RBs in the first round, especially that high, but after what Adrian Peterson has done it's hard to argue against it. AD is a stud of a player, no-doubt - but a lot of credit has to be given to his offensive line, which is one of (if not the) most expensive left-sides in the league. Remember how often the Vikes ran Chester Taylor to the left last year? Adrian Peterson came into a perfect situation.
The Pats' line is definitely an elite pass-blocking unit, but it's hard to evaluate their run-blocking abilities this year. D-Mac is a great player - maybe as good as Adrian Peterson - but I don't think that, even if he does get picked up by the Patriots, he'll have as phenomenal of a season as Peterson.
As far as the Texans go, I don't agree with them taking a back like Felix Jones (or Jonathan Stewart or whoever else), but I could see them doing that. Ahman Green's contract was a mistake from the get-go; hopefully they'll stop picking up Green Bay's leftovers now that Mike Sherman is leaving to coach in College Station. Anyway, something has to be done about the RB situation on the Texans' squad, and I can't help but wonder what Darius Walker could be doing right now for them if only they would take him off of the practice squad.
I think the safety position (weak this year) or an outside linebacker position is more important to address than RB. But then again, mock drafts shouldn't be about what teams should do, it's about what teams most-likely will do. Unfortunately, you've probably nailed it with a second-tier RB as the Texans' selection.
Lou: The reason that so-called "system" quarterbacks tend to not gain respect in the NFL is the belief by some that those players succeed because of being in a pass-happy system, posting inflated numbers due to techniques that won't necessarily translate to the NFL due to the vast difference in speed that comes on the professional level.
With Brennan, he has NFL quality height at 6'3", possesses a strong arm, and is quite accurate with his throws. Add into that his ability to lead his team back from large deficits, and he comes across as a solid prospect. The big question is: can he handle an NFL beating at the 200-205 pound mark? That's roughly 20 pounds less than what the "Big Three" are packing. He's not a particularly mobile quarterback, though in a pinch he can run it (albeit sometimes with disastrous results.) I think he'll be a good pick in round two of the draft, particularly for a team that doesn't necessarily need him to start right away. Considering how dilapitated the Hawaii athletic department's training facilities are, perhaps a year or two in a high-end NFL training facility would help him bulk up.
When it comes to the Patriots and the #2 overall pick, with four weeks to go, it's far too early to fret or overanalyze what they might do there. Four games away from the first perfect regular season in the NFL in 35 years, I'd suggest that the Pats are worried less about the 2008 NFL Draft and more about the remaining opponents and the post-season.
If anything, the main concern for the Pats this off-season will be retaining Randy Moss, who is going to be an unrestricted free agent. The high draft pick is gravy. If the Patriots traded down as close to #5 as possible and took Ohio State LB James Laurinaitis or Penn State LB Dan Connor, I wouldn't be surprised. What complicates things is that, besides maybe only Oakland, the Patriots are quite possibly the toughest team to obtain pre-draft information from, but the idea of adding Darren McFadden to that team is enough to strike fear into rival fans, opponents, and GMs alike.
The Texans could use another OLB, and I agree about them having need at safety, but the running back situation in Houston has been less than impressive. What the team does in free agency could impact what they do in round one, though the Ahman Green debacle should make them think twice about bringing in a free agent RB. Perhaps they'll tread water and sign a player like Titans RB Chris Brown; we'll see. But in the ultra-competitive AFC South, a solid commitment to the run is vital, particularly with the pieces at other spots (Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson) to make a legit playoff run in 2008.
As for Darius Walker, with Ahman Green going on IR today, maybe he will be given a look in there. Walker's decision to leave Notre Dame early last year was a huge mistake, but maybe he'll get some looks down the stretch. But I suspect that if the Texans believed Walker could contribute to the rushing game now, he'd already be in there.
From: Justin Hansen
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 7, 2007 11:50 AM
Subject: Danny Woodhead, again
I asked about him last march, just wanted to see if you've noticed anything this season that would change his status. I see a guy who runs like people are chasing him and if he runs fairly well, 4.4 or so at the combine could he be a 4th rounder.
Lou: To save those of you time trying to find the initial article on here about Danny Woodhead, here's the link.
Woodhead has had another strong season, and he has been timed as low as 4.39 in the 40. He will need to impress in both individual workouts and at the combine. If you're looking for freakish speed, there's East Carolina's Chris Johnson (who runs a mind-boggling sub-4.3 40 according to some accounts.) If you're looking at guys in the 5'7" to 5'9" category, Woodhead is definitely in the mix, but he would have to convince a team in round four or five that he would be a better pickup than a comparable player like Cal's Justin Forsett or Kentucky's Rafael Little or Oklahoma State's Dantrell Savage. Those three have all faced stiff BCS conference competition and proven that they are up to the task, and with this potentially being a loaded RB draft class if the many junior RBs who may consider early entry make the jump, it's going to take something truly special for Woodhead to jump out.
Odds are that Woodhead will slip out of the draft, sign a free agent contract, and give it what he's got in camp. But for him to be a fourth round pick would really surprise me, unless he shows something truly unique to scouts and GMs.
But even in the late rounds, if a team is going to take a flier on a running back, would they take Woodhead over, say, Ole Miss RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis? That's a tall order for Woodhead, and he's going to have to show great fundamentals and even better speed to get the edge over more established RBs.
One nice thing for Woodhead is that, one way or another, he should have a chance to prove himself in an NFL camp. The odds are stacked against him, but particularly with his kick return potential, he could end up surviving and making an NFL roster or, at worst, a spot on a practice squad.
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