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National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
February 18, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Danny Stone
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Feb 17, 2007 9:53 AM
Subject: San Francisco's D-Line
I'm not sure if anyone else is noticing what the 49er's have built in the
last couple of drafts but I think they are doing a tremendous job. The
offense is full of talent, except for a true game changer at wide-out which
this draft seems full of. My concern though with Nolan's gang is on the
D-Line. Lacking a real impact player (lets face it, Bryant Young isn't
getting any youner) I really want to see Adam Carriker there but do you feel
they would have to use the #11 overall pick to land him or could he be
snatched up in round 2. I see you have them taking Ted Ginn Jr. at the
moment which makes a lot of sense, but there could be other top wide-outs
when they get to round 2 and a talent like Carriker is hard to find,
especially at DE in a 3-4.
Also, minus the Texans passing up on Reggie Bush at the last minute last
year, which nobody saw coming, you were spot on last with most pics. No
offense, but good luck this year as the 1st round is going to be a real
guessing game.
Once again, unbeleivable site, look forward to veiwing it even more after
the Combine.
Lou: The 49ers have slowly, but surely, rebuilt from the salary cap excesses of the previous administration, patiently working within the draft to put a solid nucleus together. There are still needs there, including a top flight WR, a shutdown corner, a bookend left OT, and a 3-4 run-stuffing DT.
But even with those needs, a DE like Adam Carriker would fit in very well with the 49ers. It's possible that Carriker *could* fall all the way to the 49ers in round two, but I really doubt it. There just aren't many guys in the draft who have Carriker's unusual blend of size and speed. Carriker isn't going to pull a Dwight Freeney off the line, but he can get to the ball in a hurry, and he is a prototype 3-4 DE prospect. He's good enough where he could work in a tweener situation in a 4-3, and if San Francisco wants him, they'd better not be hoping he'll fall to them in round two.
The whole mock draft experience is an educated guessing game: a blend of evaluating talent, piecing together clues of what each team needs, what teams have historically done (e.g. Al Davis liking strong-armed QBs), and trying to put together an order that has at least some logic involved without desperately linking each pick to a glaring team need. There are some poker elements to it, and of course the trading element can overturn even the most well positioned draft projection at a moment's notice.
From: Anthony Pastore
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Feb 17, 2007 10:52 AM
Subject: Mailbag
This Brady Quinn thing is going to get tricky. St. Louis traded out of the 11th spot last year where they could have had Jay Cutler, so I dont know why they would address that need this year. I would think any defensive player would be a better fit. Right now in my own mock draft I have Quinn going 14th to Carolina. Obviously I think he's better than that but I just don't see anyone needing a QB bad enough in the top 13 (other than Oakland) to grab him. Personally, I don't think he's going to last that long because someone will swing a deal because he's still a dominant propect.
Looking at the new mock, I am on board with you 100% about the top 10 players. I do have a couple other thoughts about the rest of the draft though. My first one is San Francisco. Everything I read is saying that Amobi Okoye is blowing everyone away in workouts. I think San Francisco would do well drafting Okoye instead of Ginn, especially since you and I seem to feel the same way about Ginn.
Last, is a couple of omissions. The first one is the omission of Jarvis Moss. There's talk of him going to anywhere between 15- 20...Just a thought..Next, this is someone who I think is getting overlooked. Put the stomping incident aside, Brandon Merriweather can play. He was one of the best players at the senior bowl and showed he deserves Round 1 consideration. With the sudden fad of teams wanting cover safeties this guy could make a move into Round 1.
Thanks again and keep up the good work.
Lou: I've had some reservations about lining up Brady Quinn with St. Louis since Marc Bulger had such a good 2006 season (24 TD and 4,301 yards), and Bulger will be 30 when the season starts back up. Quinn to Carolina may be more realistic, though it is crazy to think that he could fall that far. Then again, I was stunned that Matt Leinart fell as far as he did last year. It's just such a huge investment that the fear of going QB in round one can paralyze teams... and sometimes allow talented QBs to fall further than they should. But QB and DT are generally considered the biggest feast-or-famine positions, and perhaps Quinn will end up being the victim of over-analysis and slide down the board.
Amobi Okoye is unique in many ways, from his age to his agility to his ability to bring pass rushing heat from the DT position. I really think he's better suited for a 4-3, but he should be a fun player to watch in the NFL, wherever he ends up.
The 49ers really need help at WR, though, and while I think they'd take Alan Branch if they could, WR just seems like such a huge need. I hope the best for Ted Ginn, Jr., but the reality of the NFL is that it is incredibly physical and speed in the NFL is a bit different, as *everyone* in the NFL is fast. But Ginn is insanely fast, and he would open the field up for Alex Smith and company.
I'm on the Jarvis Moss bandwagon, which might seem strange as he's not in my first round as of this writing, but this is a deep draft at DE, and it seems possible that Moss could slip out of round one. If there's a reason why the Lions might not trade down to get a DE, it might be because of the likelihood that there will be a solid defensive end or two on the board at the top of round two.
As for Brandon Meriweather, expect to hear the dreaded "character issue" phrase thrown around with him from the on-field stomping incident vs. FIU. He does seem well-suited for a Cover 2 defensive scheme, and Meriweather landing in the middle of round two seems about right. Perhaps he'll have some monster workouts and make a run at the end of round one, but I would be shocked if he went before an elite guy like LaRon Landry or Reggie Nelson.
From: Kevin Woodbridge
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Feb 18, 2007 12:33 PM
Subject: Lions-Cards trade
I love the idea of the Lions-Cards trade in your Feb. 16th Mailbag. This is a trade I have been advocating for some time now. I want Adams but I don't think he is worth the #2 pick, which is why this deal makes so much sense. Most Lions fans would be willing to trade down for less than market value and if the Cards offered this years and next years second rounder we should jump all over that deal. We need o-line help but I am skeptical of Joe Thomas and think we could land a good prospect in the second or maybe even third round. Having another 2nd rounder next year should give us the ammo to trade up for our QB of the future, assuming we even need to move up.
Lou: It would be quite a bit for Arizona to give up to move just three spots in round one, but offensive line is an absolute must for the Cardinals to improve. With Matt Leinart, Edgerrin James, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, et al, there are some high impact players in place at star positions. But if there are no holes to run through or time for Leinart to pass, what's the point? Yes, one way or another, offensive line must be addressed.
There is always a chance that the Cardinals could go DE in round one and hope to luck into a strong OT prospect falling to the second round, a la Marcus McNeill to San Diego last year. Make no mistake: the ability for Philip Rivers to step in and become a strong QB right away was boosted tremendously by the presence of McNeill. Now this is not to say that the Cardinals are a player away from 14-2 (there's that whole pesky defense to worry about), but with the talent that exists on offense there, a high-end lineman is an absolute must, I would think.
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