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National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
February 21, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Justin Hansen
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Feb 19, 2007 10:19 PM
Subject: matt herian
Do you see him getting drafted at all? He used to be a game breaker at the TE spot but after breaking his last in the fall of 05 he’s lost more than a step. That being said, in the past he’s been a playmaker. Will his 40 at the combine decide if he’s selected at all?
Lou: I expect Matt Herian to be a free agent pickup, at best, unless he shows something special at Nebraska's pro day. At this point, he's not even on the list of players going to the NFL combine.
Prior to his injury, Herian was an interesting prospect, showing the ability to go deep in the pre-Bill Callahan era. The broken leg he suffered against Missouri in 2004 was severe, enough so that he had a rod inserted to help with the healing, and from all reports he doesn't have the speed he once did. It's too bad, as Herian runs good routes and has prototype tight end height (6'5"), but he's not quite big enough to make it on size alone.
From: Andrew Davalla
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Feb 21, 2007 8:25 AM
Subject: Browns/Bentley
I don't think LeCharles Bentley's injury will affect the Browns first
round as no one would ever take an interior lineman in their spot and
there isn't really one worth trading down for. However, I think Ryan
Kalil is now an option in the 2nd. Unfortunately, I was hoping the
Browns could address other areas on round 2 (DB, DL). More typical bad
luck for the Browns. I also think puts a damper on those Browns fans who
though they would take Troy Smith in the 3rd. They'll need the 3rd to
address their other areas of need.
Lou: The LeCharles Bentley situation is pretty crazy. He tore his patella tendon last off-season, then in a sci-fi moment, had his repaired tendon partially eaten away by staph infection. Actual quote: "Yahoo.com reported during the season that the staph ate away at the new tendon, forcing additional surgery."
So, yes, the Browns will need to find another option at center, but that shouldn't impact the #3/#4 pick aside from the fact that Bentley's contract still counts against the salary cap, staph infection or not. Both Bentley and offensive tackle Kevin Shaffer have large contracts, which would mean adding Joe Thomas (should Cleveland have that opportunity) would put a larger-than-normal percentage of the total team salary into the offensive line.
Corner is a need spot for Cleveland, and we'll see if the Browns make a run at any free agent CBs. Word out of Cleveland is that the Browns will use their $30 million in cap space in going after Buffalo CB Nate Clements. But bidding will be fierce for Clements, who is drawing all sorts of unofficial interest from teams that can't comment on-the-record (lest they be accused of tampering) until March 2.
As for the draft itself, an argument could be made for taking Alan Branch as the heir apparent to Ted Washington, though ultimately I'd think that Adrian Peterson would provide the best value (and immediate impact) for the Browns.
From: Brian Wallin
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Feb 21, 2007 2:48 PM
Subject: moving up??
Hey Lou,
Best draft site on the net... HANDS DOWN!!
So I know you are not big on projecting trades but I have a few questions for
you... I have heard rumors that possibly Matt Schaub could be on the block, do
you think that a trade of Schaub, the #10 pick, and a 3rd round pick would be
enough to move up to the Lions #2 spot. Michael Vick has always wanted a
receiver like Charles Johnson, and how big of a fan favorite would he be playing
in Atlanta!!
Also I wonder if Adrian Peterson were to fall out of the top 5 considering that
Washington has only one pick on day one... Could you see a scenario where the
Packers traded the 16th pick, there 2nd round pick, and maybe another pick from
the 2008 draft to move up to the 6th spot to take Peterson. He is my ideal
Packer 1st round pick. I do like the idea of Lynch in a Packer uniform if
Peterson is off the board.
And last but not least, on a funny note... what are the odds against the Vikings
failing to get their pick to the podium in time...... Maybe that's why Houston
brought in Justin Gatlin for a workout last year, they wanted him ready to
sprint their card to the podium when the clock ran out on the Vikings...
Lou: If you look at the unofficial NFL trade value chart, the idea you put forward would break down like this:
Detroit: #2 overall (2,600) = 2,600
Atlanta: #10 overall (1,300) and 3rd round (220) and Matt Schaub (negotiable) = 1,520 + Schaub
Extrapolating that further, that would put Schaub at roughly 1,080 points, or with a value between the 14 and 15 pick of the first round. Would Atlanta go for that? I'd think so, depending to some degree on what their goal is with the trade in obtaining the #2 pick.
I'm not sure if Detroit would do it. If they really believe in Jon Kitna for 2007, then why bring in Matt Schaub? The Lions quietly had two 1,000 yard receivers last year (Roy Williams and Mike Furrey), and while Kitna was second to only Ben Roethlisberger in interceptions, he threw for more than 4,200 yards.
If you want an offensive lineman, stay put and take Joe Thomas. If you want an RB, stay put and take Adrian Peterson. If you want a DE, stay put and take Gaines Adams or Jamaal Anderson. The only way trading down seems to make sense is if Detroit wants a secondary guy, a safety like LaRon Landry or Reggie Nelson in that Cover 2 the Lions are running, or if the Lions like Levi Brown the same as Joe Thomas and think that Brown will be obtainable at #10.
Also, there's no guarantee that Calvin Johnson would be on the board at #2, and an if/then trade (if Oakland doesn't take Johnson, then Atlanta and Detroit make the trade) could be tricky. If Atlanta is going to deal Schaub, I'd think that they'd want to do so prior to the draft so that accommodations could be made via free agency to land a low-cost veteran backup to Vick.
In the past Atlanta has brought in a wide array of WRs, using first round picks in Michael Jenkins and Dez White and acquiring former first rounder Ashley Lelie and second rounder Peerless Price, and there really hasn't been a breakout connection for Vick (outside of tight end Alge Crumpler.) If anyone can click with Vick, it's Calvin Johnson. But such a move also creates salary cap difficulties, not only when considering Vick's huge cap number, but also with the rookie cap in trying to sign Johnson.
Is it possible? Yes. Will it happen? I'd think it's unlikely.
As for Adrian Peterson falling, he could slip out of the top five, but I'd be shocked if he fell out of the top ten. I've learned to never say never with the draft, but unless there are lingering injury problems, I strongly suspect that he'd slide no further than Houston at #8. As it is, I don't see Green Bay trading up that far or Washington moving so far down (if at all.)
After the embarrassment of 2003, I don't think Minnesota will be late with their pick again anytime soon.
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