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National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
February 5, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: Clint Butts
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Feb 2, 2007 10:59 AM
Subject: Buc's pick at #3
Got to say that I enjoy the site and it seems to have quite a bit of credibility. Looking at your projected pick for the Bucs I am a little surprised, but just mostly worried that they would choose Calvin Johnson. I realize that he is touted as being "the stud" of this draft athletically, but how many receivers does Tampa really need? With such an aging defense, and having used so many picks in the Gruden era on offensive players is there not a defensive player out there that wouldn't be a stretch to pick at three? Not saying that they aren't making the "smart pick," and lord knows that the Texans are paying for not choosing the best player when the opportunity is there. It just seems to me that they could trade down to someone like New England who needs a receiver (maybe not the mentality of Johnson in the Belicheck camp) for two first rounders or a first and second. I tend to think that you can draft a better defense and pick up proven offensive players through free agency. Please enlighten me with the true wisdom of a the DraftKing. Thanks
Lou: You're right that the Tampa Bay Bucs are deep at receiver (moreso than most casual fans realize.) I think the perception that the Bucs may take Calvin Johnson is based on how strong of a prospect he is, the age of Joey Galloway, and the way that Michael Clayton has failed to regain the form from his rookie season.
The Bucs are in a bit of a corner as far as some of the elite prospects go; the move to re-sign Chris Simms (who was eligible for free agency) makes going QB now an awkward move. The presence of Cadillac Williams makes taking Adrian Peterson almost impossible outside of a draft-and-trade. Joe Thomas is a fantastic OT prospect, but the Bucs used their first two picks last year on the offensive line, making Thomas seem like an unlikely choice.
Defensive line is still a possibility, though it would seem that defensive end would be the way Tampa Bay would go because of the lack of an elite DT prospect (and the way that position is so boom or bust.) Trading is possible for the Bucs, but that can't happen until the NFL decides if the Bucs or the Browns get the #3 pick. Trading out of the top five is difficult because of rookie salary cap reasons, so while it would make sense for the Bucs to load up on picks, they'd have to both work around the cap and find an interested partner.
Will there be a player at #3 (or #4) who would warrant such interest? Calvin Johnson might elicit some offers. If you're Minnesota, what would you give up to get him? Or San Francisco? The numbers would work (more or less) for the Bucs to trade the #3 pick to the Vikings for Minnesota's 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 2008 3rd. Then again, the Bucs already have an extra second round pick (from the Colts) so they might not be keen on trading down when they could instead add an impact player.
From: wil27@earthlink.net
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Feb 3, 2007 8:15 AM
Subject: mock draft - jets
Hello. I see you have plugged Carriker into the Jets slot in your latest mock draft. Now Jet fans have to hope he is there at #25.
Fyi, Carriker would replace Kimo Von Olhoffen, not Ellis or Thomas. Thomas is an OLB in the Jets 3/4 scheme. Carriker, Robertson and Ellis would make a nice front for the Jets.
Lou: One of the challenges of the 3-4 is having linemen who can stuff the run effectively (allowing for speedy OLBs, like DeMarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman, to bring the heat), and Adam Carriker is by far the strongest prospect in this draft for stopping the run from the 3-4 DE spot. The guy is huge, he's quick for his size, and he would fit in well with the Jets' system.
Because relatively few teams run the 3-4 (and maybe one less if Pittsburgh drops it), Carriker is in that weird no-mans land where he could go as early as #11 to San Francisco, or possibly fall all the way out of round one. The Jets will have other needs to consider filling, but it may be tough for them to pass on Carriker if he's on the board at #25.
From: Mikegrossoaks@aol.com
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Feb 5, 2007 2:01 PM
Subject: Lions er kitty katz
I hope the Lions don't trade down and don't take a Quarterback. I say take Adrian Peterson since we have had our best teams when we had great running backs. Examples Billy Sims and Barry Sanders. I feel that this is the best chance for the Lions to have the game breaker on offense they need. While Kevin Jones is a decent running back, he is injury prone. The injury he has right now is a serious one especially for a running back. I say trade Kevin and take any decent player or draft pick you can get. It only makes sense to get someone who can help immediately. John Kitna had a decent year and McCown is signed for awhile. As far as a trade for Simeon Rice I feel is a little far fetched. I can say that Redding, Rogers, and Cody are the future of the Lions front four. With a little help from our young linebackers, this defense, when healthy could compete in most games. I love your site.
Lou: The Detroit Lions are in an interesting position going into this draft. Matt Millen is on the hottest seat in the league, and he needs results now. From a self-preservation standpoint, it would stand to reason that Millen would look for a player at the #2 spot who would make an immediate impact. Adrian Peterson provides the greatest opportunity for that, and it wouldn't surprise me if Peterson went to Detroit at #2.
Defensive end is another quick impact position, and there are two elite DE prospects in the draft in Gaines Adams and Jamaal Anderson. Many observers have them ranked below the top of the chart, so going DE at #2 might be a bit of a reach, but Mario Williams going #1 overall last year over Reggie Bush is evidence that it can happen.
The injury status of Kevin Jones may have some influence on what happens, but the decision may come down to the emphasis on winning in 2007 vs. building for the future. Luckily for Lions fans, playing for now (RB, WR) or for later (QB, OT) is a win-win with so many great prospects up for consideration.
As for trading down, I've written at length about the difficulty of trading out of the top five, and besides the Browns, it seems unlikely that the Lions would be trading down for a team wanting Brady Quinn. It's always possible that Arizona will make a move to get Joe Thomas, but even that would not be bad for the Lions, as at #5 they'd know that at least one of the following: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Adrian Peterson, and Calvin Johnson. Moreover, there's a high likelihood of both DEs still being on the board at #5, so that could actually work out well for the Lions.
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