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National Football League
Draft King Mailbag
April 9, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
From: molly-scott@peoplepc.com
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Apr 7, 2007 2:02 PM
Subject: Mailbag
If Ted Ginn contributed next to nothing this year in the receiving department, but had a similar impact to Devon Hester in the return game, would you still rate him a first round pick?
Lou: That is a very interesting question. I'd say that's a strong yes, Ginn would be not only a first rounder, but a high first rounder. He probably wouldn't fall past Houston at #10. Ginn having a guaranteed Hester-esque impact in a draft world where almost nothing is a legitimate sure thing would be too good to pass up.
But the draft is a world of "ifs", not guarantees. Ginn's small frame makes him more likely to be a special teams standout than a big-time WR threat, to be sure but with his incredible speed he could be able to make some breakaway catches if defenses try to play him too close.
The impact that Ginn will have in the NFL is difficult to gauge at this stage, more so than with most players, which is in no small part why many draft boards having him slotted in many different places. It's possible that he could go as high as #6 to Washington. It's unlikely, but possible. You might see a team like the Rams make a "surprise" pick in taking him, since he brings so much potential on special teams. But I figure that he'll end up going in the 15-25 range, adding a strong boost for 3 WR sets and special teams for whatever team lands him.
From: Pete McGough-Pose
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Apr 9, 2007 12:12 AM
Subject: Cavlin... Of Coarse
Hey Lou,
I'm a huge Vikings fans, i have been my whole life and for the pass 2 years
i've been watching calvin johnson flying below the radar (to the general
public) and licking my chops thinking about the possiblilty that in a few
years down the line he could end up on the vikings. Now that he has blown on
to the scene, gotten so much public press, and he's considered a phenom like
no one in recent history, it's harder to beleive that he could end up on
your team, but it's also that much more exciting to think how great it would
be too snag him.
With all favoritism aside, i'd like to know who you think has the best
chance to get calvin (most likely through a trade), but with all the teams
gunning for him, which of these teams that's really in the running for him
has the best chance?
Lou: It's even more amazing that Calvin Johnson had the success he did at Georgia Tech when you consider that his college QB, Reggie Ball, wasn't a particularly accurate passer (with only a 44.4% completion rate in 2006.) I'm a big CJ fan and I think he will succeed wherever he ends up. It will be good for the NFL, and good obviously for whatever team lands him, if he lives up to the hype.
Here's a breakdown of the Calvin Johnson situation.
1. Raiders: I expect them to draft JaMarcus Russell here, but Oakland is leaking very little information. The only fact known is that they wouldn't promise Jeff Garcia that they wouldn't take a QB with their first round pick. Take that as you will. The Raiders appear to be trying to smooth things out with moody WR Randy Moss, and if they can get Moss and Jerry Porter back on good terms with the team, then the need for Calvin Johnson here would be low... even though CJ is such a great prospect.
2. Lions: Oh, the irony. Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, and Mike Williams have been top ten overall picks at WR for Detroit in the past four years, and now the Lions could potentially add another WR who would be worthy of whatever mockery Matt Millen would have to endure for taking a fourth WR with a top ten pick in a five year span. But with the team having two receivers (Roy Williams and Mike Furrey) coming off of 1,000+ yard seasons, the likelihood of Detroit taking CJ at #2 seems slim. I expect Detroit to talk trade (particularly once it's known who Oakland is taking at #1), and perhaps Tampa Bay would package its pick at #4 and its two second round picks to move to #2 to get CJ, though that might be too high a price for the Bucs, who could potentially get Johnson at #4 and be able to retain its two second rounders. Arizona may move up here, but if that happens it would be to draft Wisconsin OT Joe Thomas.
3. Browns: The idea of the Browns drafting Johnson is not outlandish. The most likely scenario would seem to be Cleveland taking Adrian Peterson here, or perhaps trading down with a team like Minnesota or Atlanta. But if Cleveland drafted Johnson, they could have a nice offensive set with CJ, Braylon Edwards, and Kellen Winslow as receiving threats and Jamal Lewis in the backfield. Don't count it out.
4. Bucs: If Calvin Johnson falls to Tampa Bay at #4, I would be shocked if the Buccaneers passed on him. Remember the negative reaction that Jets fans gave in 1995 when the Jets picked Kyle Brady over Warren Sapp? That should (and probably would) be the reactions from Bucs fans if somehow the Bucs passed on CJ at this point.
There is the possibility that Tampa Bay might be tempted by a blockbuster offer to move down (think Minnesota more than divisional rival Atlanta on that,), but with three picks in the first two rounds, it's not like Tampa Bay is desperate for selections.
Teams that may try to trade up for CJ: Redskins (though that would require picks the Skins just don't have, at least in the 2007 draft), Vikings (best fit for CJ in the draft, but they won't be doing business with Detroit at #2), Falcons (Vick to CJ is a scary proposition for defenders), and the 49ers (they're too far out to do it, unless CJ falls to #3 or #4 and San Fran breaks the bank on picks to get him, which would be bizarre since Alan Branch and Patrick Willis could both be on the board for them at #11.)
From: Sean Combrink
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Apr 9, 2007 4:34 AM
Subject: Alan Branch and the Chiefs
Love the site, I was taking a look at the drop of Alan Branch in your mock draft. If he is still on the board at number 23 then would the chiefs not take him over a wide receiver? The draft seems to be very deep at receiver and the chiefs have some prospects that they seem to want to develop (Webb) and an older more experienced receiver that they want to utilise more (Gardner). They have only signed Alfonso Boone as a new addition to the DT ranks. I think if Alan Branch is not taken by the 23 spot the chiefs would be mad not to take him.
Cheers Sean from Cape Town, South Africa
Lou: I had to leave the signature line on this one -- it's amazing to me to think that this site has readers in South Africa. I love the internet.
It is possible that Branch would be drafted by Kansas City if he falls to #23. The Chiefs retained free agent DT Ron Edwards with a new contract earlier this month, but still the position must be addressed with Ryan Sims' inability to live up to his billing as the #6 overall pick from the 2002 Draft (and Sims likely to be cut this off-season.) However, what reportedly set off Chiefs defensive coordinator Gunter Cunningham last year was that Sims showed up to mini-camp out of shape, and if there are similar concerns about Branch, that could be a problem as well.
Moreover, there is the situation involving the Michigan Pro Day interaction by Branch with Chiefs defensive line coach Tim Krumrie (if you saw Super Bowl XXIII, you probably remember the horrible leg injury Krumrie suffered, which was replayed over and over to a horrified worldwide audience.) From what I've read on a few message boards, Krumrie roughed Branch up thoroughly during a hand-checking/hand-slapping drill (sans pads) at Michigan's Pro Day and left him "looking like he wanted to quit." Message board posts have to be taken with a grain of salt, so take that info as you will, but this is the sort of thing (along with concerns about conditioning) that is driving down Branch's perceived draft position.
To be fair, I'd want to quit if Tim Krumrie was slapping the hell out of me, too. But that has raised the question of Branch's toughness, which isn't necessarily fair, but it's a question which now exists in some GM's minds.
To read Branch's take on his Pro Day (and his interaction with Krumrie), check out his interview with Graham Bensinger on ESPN.com. Ultimately, Branch is huge (6'5" 325) and strong (he did 33 reps of 225 at the combine), and if properly motivated, he has the physical tools to be a dominant DT in the NFL. But if Branch falls past San Francisco at #11 (where he'd be a perfect fit) and St. Louis at #13, it could be a slippery slide down the board for him.
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