|
National Football League
Draft King Analysis
December 15, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.
The likelihood of the Dallas Cowboys using a first round pick on a nose tackle has dropped considerably, as the team has signed Jay Ratliff to a five-year, $20.5 million contract extension that includes an $8 million signing bonus. Ratliff took over the nose tackle job vacated by Jason Ferguson's season-ending injury suffered in week one, and he has excelled in the spot despite being considerably lighter (6'4" 300) than your typical 3-4 NT.
While I anticipated that Wade Phillips would push for the team to bring in a larger NT, like what he had in San Diego with Jamal Williams (6'3" 350), Dallas has been strong against the run. Through Week 14, the Cowboys were fourth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game, allowing just 90.4 rushing yards per contest.
So where does that leave the Cowboys, who have two first round picks? The likely #1 seed in the NFC has a few considerations, some of which are contingent on personnel moves. Julius Jones will be an unrestricted free agent, and it seems entirely possible that the Cowboys could let him walk. Jones has been below 4 yards per carry (3.9) this season, and while Marion Barber, III has been very effective in his role, the Cowboys would be well-served to bring in one of the many RB prospects that may end up in the draft to continue the dual RB attack that has brought them success.
Fantasy football players loathe this type of setup, but with the two Super Bowl teams last year boasting dual RB attacks and the Cowboys having great success with it this year, I don't look for it to be a trend that changes anytime soon. Run one player too much (such as Kansas City with Larry Johnson last year) and you put yourself at great risk long-term as a team.
As I've noted on here in recent weeks, the RB talent pool in the 2008 NFL Draft hinges on how many top-tier junior prospects opt to enter the upcoming draft. Can Bobby Petrino talk Felix Jones into coming back to Arkansas? Will Steve Slaton come back to West Virginia to make one more run at the BCS Title? Does Jonathan Stewart want to return to an Oregon team that will be without QB Dennis Dixon next year? We'll find all of that out in the next month, but I anticipate that a number of teams, the Cowboys included, will be watching closely to see what happens.
|  | Jay Ratliff has stuffed the middle well for the Cowboys this year. (James D. Smith/Icon SMI)
|
This article in the Dallas Morning News has not only details on the Ratliff extension, but also indications that the Cowboys are hoping to sign WR Patrick Crayton and S Ken Hamlin to extensions. Both Crayton and Hamlin are slated for unrestricted free agency this off-season; Hamlin only signed a one-year deal when coming over from Seattle. The lack of mention of Julius Jones relative to extension talks gives further credence to the idea that Dallas will let him go without a fight after this year.
Even if the Cowboys sign Clayton to an extension, I don't think that such a move would preclude them from using a first round pick on a receiver. As I've noted on here numerous times, Terrell Owens is 34 and Terry Glenn is 33. And while some elite wideouts can play into their mid-late 30s, eventually time catches up with everyone. There's a reason why it was a such a big deal that Jerry Rice was playing WR at age 40; it was an unprecedented situation. It wasn't just that it was the all-time leading NFL wide receiver playing that long, but that it was *anyone* still able to make an NFL roster at WR at that age.
[an error occurred while processing this directive]
In contemporary terms, for every Joey Galloway who's still putting up yards at age 36, there is a long line of guys whose bodies gave out of them long before that. Terry Glenn has already missed almost all of the regular season with an injury, and while Owens has remained healthy this year, ultimately the Cowboys will have to plan for life after T.O. Even if Dallas keeps Owens for 2008 (which will cost them $7 million, including a $3 million roster bonus due in June 2008), that's the final year of his deal.
The other major contract extension to be announced today was Buffalo KR/WR Roscoe Parrish signing a substantial deal. Just last month, Parrish was complaining about his lack of involvement in the Bills' offense, but I imagine that the contract extension will help to pacify him. Parrish's previous deal ran through next year, but Buffalo decided to lock him in long-term, if for nothing else because of his punt return ability. Had the team waited to try signing him to an extension, his price likely would have gone up considerably.
|  | Buffalo's Roscoe Parrish is an outstanding punt returner. (Ed Wolfstein/Icon SMI)
|
How good is Parrish as a punt returner? Pro Football Talk broke it down in an excellent write-up today; it reports that Parrish's 13.76 yards per return average is well ahead of the all-time NFL record (12.78 yards by George McAfee of the 1940s Chicago Bears.) Think about that for a second: that's nearly one more yard per average than the next closest player. That is amazing. But Parrish doesn't hold the career average record yet, as the minimum threshold for that mark is 75 punt returns, and Parrish has but 68 as of this writing. But there's an excellent chance that Parrish will return at least seven punts in the final three Bills games of the year, which would allow him to capture the official record.
This could directly impact the draft for the Bills. While Buffalo was not expected to look at a receiver early, they almost for sure won't now. Moreover, in considering taking a corner on day one, the Bills don't necessarily have to look for a guy who can also return kicks. It wouldn't hurt to have depth at that spot, but it gives them flexibility to where they don't *need* to take a Justin Miller type of player with both strong corner and kick return skills.
Tonight's Cincinnati at San Francisco game (8:00 EST, NFL Network) has implications for the top of the draft, albeit for the New England Patriots, the team that holds the 49ers' first round pick thanks to the trade that San Francisco made with New England during the 2007 Draft to allow the team to select OT Joe Staley. The 49ers have the lowest opponent win percentage among the four 3-10 teams. The disparity is wide enough to where the other teams may not be able to catch the 49ers:
2. San Francisco 49ers 3-10 (.4808)
3. St. Louis Rams 3-10 (.5144)
4. Atlanta Falcons 3-10 (.5215)
5. New York Jets 3-10 (.5240)
The 49ers have scored fewer points than any other NFL team this year, and they will be without Trent Dilfer for at least tonight's game. How bad is it for the 49ers? This past week, the team signed 35-year-old QB Chris Weinke (who holds the NFL record for most consecutive losses by a starting quarterback at 15.) After tonight, the 49ers face 8-5 Tampa Bay at home before closing the season at 8-5 Cleveland. Nothing is a given in the NFL, but if the 49ers lose tonight, it will become even more likely that the Patriots will be the team that ends up with the #2 pick in the 2008 NFL Draft.
NFL Draft Prospect Profiles
Draft King is owned and operated by Lou Pickney. © 2003-2024, all rights reserved.
Unless otherwise noted, the views expressed here are those of Lou Pickney alone and do not necessarily reflect those of any media company.
| 