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National Football League
Draft King Analysis

December 16, 2007
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com

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University of Miami free safety Kenny Phillips has announced his plans to enter the 2008 NFL Draft. However, to this point he has not signed with an agent, and should the NFL College Advisory Committee give him a lower anticipated range for being drafted than most are anticipating, is it possible that he could come back to Miami. But, at this point, all indications are that Phillips will be in the 2008 Draft, and if that happens and if he stays healthy in the off-season, he will likely be the first safety taken in the draft.

Kenny Phillips
Kenny Phillips may be the first safety taken in the 2008 NFL Draft. (Randy Litzinger/Icon SMI)

A teammate of Phillips, junior DE Calais Campbell, is also expected to enter the draft early, but at the moment he is mulling over his options. Read more in the Miami Herald for additional details.

Looking toward the top of the draft board, with two weeks to go it looks like this, with the opponent win percentage in parenthises:

2. St. Louis Rams 3-11 (.5089)
3. New York Jets 3-11 (.5223)
4. Atlanta Falcons 3-11 (.5336)

This would make it look like a good possibility that the Jets would be in a position to draft Arkansas RB Darren McFadden (assuming he declares for the draft), but the Jets would need to lose at Tennessee and at home against Kansas City to close the year to maintain that spot.

Congrats to the Dolphins for their overtime win today over Baltimore. If the Dolphins win out, they likely would not end up with the top pick in the draft due to having a high opponent win percentage, but that would mean winning at New England and then at home over Cincinnati.

As for Atlanta, there are some who believe that the departure of Bobby Petrino might cause the Falcons to not select Brian Brohm in the first round. While not having Petrino there likely lessens the chance of it happening, I wouldn't say that it precludes it from happening. If, after scouting the prospects, the Falcons like Brohm the best, I think they'd take him despite the connection that Brohm and Petrino had at Louisville. It's not like the Falcons fired Petrino; remember, he walked out on them.

[an error occurred while processing this directive] At this point, I think Woodson and Ryan will end up going higher than Brohm in the draft, but I think it would be short-sighted to say that the Falcons wouldn't take Brohm simply because of what happened with Bobby Petrino.

As Petrino now tries to talk Arkansas RB Felix Jones into returning for his senior year, another major coaching change could also impact the potentially huge group of junior running backs. West Virginia head coach Rich Rodriguez bolted from Morgantown today to become the new head coach at Michigan. It remains to be seen if his departure will impact Steve Slaton, or perhaps even Pat White, in their decisions on possibly returning to WVU for the 2008 season.

The free-fall of the Detroit Lions has been, in no small part, a result of its collapse on defense. In two of the past three weeks, Detroit has given up 40+ points, including a 51-14 thrashing dealt out today by the San Diego Chargers. The Lions have given up an NFL-worst 27.9 points per game, and are in 31st place by giving up 257.9 passing yards per game; only the Vikings are worse against the pass. Barring a major free agency move, I strongly suspect that Detroit will use a day one pick on a cornerback.

LaDainian Tomlinson
LaDainian Tomlinson and the Chargers roughed up the Lions today. (John Pyle/Icon SMI)

As for the Chargers, they are finally playing up to the form that many people expected of them coming into the season. Remember when they started 1-2 and TV pundits were flipping out? In hindsight, their losses at New England and at Green Bay in weeks two and three weren't anything to be embarrassed about. And with five wins in their past six games, San Diego is catching fire at exactly the right time.

With many teams jumbled in the 5-7 win range, it will be interesting to see how the upcoming two weeks impact the draft order. The Rams, Jets, and Falcons are all assured of no less than a top ten pick, even if they win out. Ditto for the Dolphins and the top four (and that would mean Miami beating 14-0 New England in what would be the biggest upset in NFL regular season history.)

In short, the draft order is starting to settle down to a degree, but there are still a number of shifts that could happen in the final two weeks of the regular season.

Here's a question: if New England ends up with the #5 pick in the 2008 Draft and they have a chance to take Virginia DE Chris Long, would they take him? He is a tremendous prospect who would be an ideal fit in the 3-4 defense, but New England is stacked at defensive end (Richard Seymour, Ty Warren, and even Jarvis Green) and has a stronger need at ILB and corner. To point, Seymour missed the first half of the year with an injury, yet the Patriots didn't flinch without him in there.

So would the Pats take Chris Long... or instead stretch to take a linebacker or a corner? San Francisco has two tough games to end the year (9-5 Tampa Bay and 9-5 Cleveland), so it would seem unlikely that the Pats would end up with a pick outside of the top five.


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