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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
January 18, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
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Enjoy the AFC and NFC Championship games today. For Arizona Cardinals fans in particular this is a long day in the making. And, yes, there are Cardinals loyalists out there. I used to laugh at that State Farm commercial where they show a woman with an Arizona Cardinals logo tattooed on the small of her back. When I first saw it, I figured the Arizona Cardinals were the least likely squad to inspire a woman to get its logo as a tramp stamp. Now? Maybe things have changed.
The March 1 free agency deadline is still more than a month away, but it's not too early to look at what some of the NFL teams might do with it. In 2008, twelve teams utilized the franchise tag; in 2007 that number was seven. The Bengals have already said that they don't plan to use the franchise tag on soon-to-be free agent WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, but they haven't ruled out using the tag potentially on another player, though at this point I don't project them doing that.
Keep in mind that the one-year tender given to a franchised player is the average of the top five salaries at the position from the previous year (except for "exclusive rights" franchise players, which is explained in the Oakland section). Speaking of Oakland, this article by ESPN's Len Pasquarelli (from 2002) explains how Raiders owner Al Davis wanted there to be *five* franchise tags per team per year when what became the modern free agency system came to be in 1993.
Here's a look at some teams that might be using their franchise tags in 2009 and who might be kept off the free agent market. With free agency having such a direct impact on the draft, I've found that it's well worth looking at and considering free agency in relation to the draft. If there are any players/teams that you think should be added to this list, please let me know.
New England Patriots: QB Matt Cassel
Cassel played amazingly well in filling the spot left by Tom Brady's week one knee injury. And, with Brady reportedly behind schedule on his recovery, having Cassel in 2009 would be a major insurance policy for the Patriots, albeit an expensive one at the estimated $14 million price tag that he would command. But the Patriots have the cash under the cap to afford both Brady and Cassel in 2009, and unless things change dramatically, expect the Patriots to use their franchise tag on Cassel.
|  | Is there a better corner in the NFL today than Nnamdi Asomugha? (Icon SMI)
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Oakland Raiders: CB Nnamdi Asomugha
Asomugha is arguably the best corner in the NFL, and the Raiders thought so highly of him last year that they used the exclusive version of the franchise tag on him, a rarely used maneuver that prevented Asomugha from talking with any other teams. The exclusive franchise tag is seldom seen because it pays the player according to the current year's average of the top five salaries (as opposed to the previous year's average with the non-exclusive franchise tag) and because any team that signs a non-exclusive franchise player risks either having their deal matched by the original team or having to give up TWO first round picks in return.
Last month Asomugha dropped his long-time agent, Steve Baker, and hired Tom Condon to represent him. Perhaps Condon can work out a long-term deal for Asomugha with the Raiders, but if not then it seems all but certain that Oakland will use the franchise tag on Asomugha for a second consecutive season.
Carolina Panthers: DE Julius Peppers or OT Jordan Gross
I touched on this yesterday, but the Panthers can't franchise both guys. The Panthers used their franchise tag on Gross last year, but they failed to reach terms on a long-term deal with him.
|  | Ray Lewis is an iconic figure. (Icon SMI)
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Complicating the situation is Peppers making the preemptive move of stating publicly that he wants out of Carolina, which is odd in many ways considering that Peppers was born in Wilson, NC and went to college at North Carolina. But business is business, and it will be interesting to see how Carolina handles this tangled situation. It seems hard to fathom that the Panthers would simply let Peppers join another team without receiving any compensation in return.
Baltimore Ravens: ILB Ray Lewis, OLB Terrell Suggs, or LB Bart Scott
Obviously the Ravens can't use the franchise tag on all three guys, and there are arguments that can be made for all three players. The Ravens used the franchise tag on Suggs in 2008, and he would seem to be the most likely player to receive that designation this year. Lewis has been the heart and soul of the team for the duration of his run in Baltimore, and it would be very strange to see Lewis playing for another NFL team. This article by David Steele of the Baltimore Sun sums up the dilemma facing the club quite well. Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome has a tough task ahead of him.
Arizona Cardinals: OLB Karlos Dansby
The Cardinals used the franchise tag on the Auburn product last year, and with Dansby having another strong season it would be reasonable to believe that there is a strong chance that the Cards would franchise him again in 2009. Dansby started every game for Arizona this year and had a career-best 95 tackles in the regular season.
St. Louis Rams: FS O.J. (Oshiomogho) Atogwe
Atogwe, a third-round pick in 2005 out of Stanford, is set for free agency. Atogwe has started every game for the Rams over the past three seasons, and while there has been no word out of St. Louis as to what they plan to do, there has been widespread speculation that the team might opt to use the franchise tag on Atogwe.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: WR Antonio Bryant
Bryant had a breakout season in 2008 with more than 1,200 yards receiving, and how the Bucs choose to handle his impending free agency may depend in large part to how new Bucs GM Mark Dominik evaluates the situation. Bryant has had an up-and-down career since being a second-round pick by the Cowboys in 2002.
Tennessee Titans: K Rob Bironas
Both Bironas and Titans punter Craig Hentrich are slated for free agency, but of the two Bironas would be the more likely to be franchised. The Titans reached a deal last year with DT Albert Haynesworth where if one of four goals were met that the team wouldn't use the franchise tag on Haynesworth (one of which was the team exceeding 10 victories in 2008, which happened). As a result, the team can't franchise Haynesworth, but it can use the tag on another player. It might seem silly to franchise a kicker, but it's not unprecedented (Denver did it with Jason Elam in 2002 and New England did it twice with Adam Vinatieri). Bironas has an 88.89% made field goal percentage average over the past two seasons, which includes an NFL-record eight field goals in a win over Houston in 2007.
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