Draft King NFL Mock Draft exclusive insight decades of experience insider pro football college prospects

Lou Pickney's 2024 NFL Mock Draft


National Football League
Draft King Analysis

January 3, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com

Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.


As of this writing there haven't been any announcements of the draft status of the major impact players, though some additional players have thrown their hat into the ring for early entry into the NFL. This includes a whopping three juniors from South Carolina's defense: SS Emanuel Cook (the team's leading tackler in 2008 who was academically ineligible for SC's loss in the Outback Bowl), CB Captain Munnerlyn (reportedly rated as a first-to-third round pick), and OLB Eric Norwood (reported rated as a fourth-to-seventh round pick).

There will almost certainly be more to come on this list, and of course players who declare for the draft have until January 15, 2009 to change their mind (unless they sign with an agent, in which case they can't go back to college football).


From: George Finney
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Fri, Jan 2, 2009 at 4:12 PM
Subject: 2009 NFL Mock Draft

I looked over your Mock draft. I understand it takes a lot to put something out there for all to see. It opens yourself up to critics from everywhere. You have some good points and I like a lot of your choices. But there are a few things I disagree with you on.

1. The Texans (my home team) drafting a corner. There is no way they are going to let Duanta get away. He is one of the leaders on their defense and that was made clear once he made a comeback, I believe they only lost one game. They are going to sign him to a multi-year deal. That opens up the #15 pick for what they really need. Safety - William Moore, Missouri.

2. Word around here is that a lot scouts don't like Orakpo as much as perception. They say he lacks that initial burst (explosive first step; whatever you want to call it) to be a great consistent pass rusher. Some scouts even have him rated as low as late 2nd. But the others point to his performance against Oklahoma to move him up to the first. I would do a little more research on him against the quicker, better tackles; before I left him so high.

3. Personally, I see the Broncos going LB in round 1, but Safety is not a bad call

4. Taylor Mays?????? Heard something from a scout that I starting watching for, and could turn out to be something. Is Taylor Mays the next Roy Williams? He likes to hit and reminds me of LaRon Landry in that respect, but I think he would have to be a Strong Safety or an OLB. I don't see him around the ball enough on the longer pass plays, which is strange considering his speed. Just giving you something else to look for.

5. Also Everette Brown will be making it into the 1st round soon, maybe even as high as Top 10. Just what I've heard.

Lou: The status of Dunta Robinson remains an unknown at the moment. When healthy he is a tremendous playmaker, and the Texans face a tough challenge in offering him an enticing enough offer to keep him off the free agent market. He could be franchised, and Houston very well might opt to do that rather than losing him outright, but that won't be cheap.

Whatever the case, I agree that the Texans would not be inclined to draft a CB in the first round if they are able to sign Robinson to a new deal.

Taylor Mays
Taylor Mays is a talented athlete. (Icon SMI)
Brian Orakpo has slipped a bit in recent weeks, and his lack of initial burst is cited as a negative but some prominent scouts. Orakpo is great against the run, though, and his closing speed on QBs is impressive. I think Orakpo has slipped a bit in large part because some other defensive ends (including underclassmen) have begun to emerge on the scene as potential major players. As I mentioned in the most recent mock draft on here, Orakpo is not a Mario Williams or Julius Peppers type prospect, and he could fall much further than the #6 spot that I have him penciled in at for now.

The Broncos going with a linebacker wouldn't be unreasonable. That will likely depend on who is on the board when Denver picks, if any linebacker prospect jumps out at them, etc. Until new management comes on board in Denver, projecting that will be tricky.

Taylor Mays is a freakishly impressive player. Mays is 6'3" 235, all muscle, ripped and able to lay a severe hit on any receiver coming over the middle. Perhaps the comparison to Roy L. Williams is accurate in that Williams is known for his big hits, but I tend to think more of the late Sean Taylor with solid cover skills against the run and the pass along with an ability to lay out opposing receivers. You might have noticed in the Rose Bowl how Mays hit Penn State WR Jordan Norwood with a vicious hit that left Norwood seeing stars. Yes, Mays was penalized for the dangerous play, but he brings a veracity to the field that is most impressive.

As for Everette Brown, I mentioned him in my most recent article as an up-and-coming underclassman who could break into the first round. Brown would be best served playing DE in an NFL 3-4 defense, which will limit him to some degree, though it's not as if he *couldn't* play the 4-3 DE role. As of this writing Brown remains undecided on entering the 2009 NFL Draft.

I'm not sure that Brown would go ahead of Penn State's Aaron Maybin or Texas' Brian Orakpo or Georgia Tech's Michael Johnson, but that remains to be seen. First things first -- we have to see if Brown and/or Maybin will come out early.


From: DA Decker
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Fri, Jan 2, 2009 at 9:14 PM
Subject: Chiefs

Hey I love your site. Some of the best info that comes out on the draft lies within Draft King.

The Chiefs were an absolute abyss at 2-14. There were only a few games in which they were routed. A lot of the losses were close games..i.e. both San Diego games, the Jets and Miami. Their problem was that they couldnt hold a lead. I know they were a real young team and that last year's draft was one of the best that they had had in years. Unfortunately King Carl didnt draft well before then and we see the end results. At No 3, depending on who comes out what will the Chiefs be looking for. I am not sold on Matt Stafford. However I dont feel that Tyler Thigpen is the answer. What do the think the Chiefs should do at No 3. Help on the defense would be nice considering they couldnt get to the QB all season. And the fact that they are getting a new GM maybe he can right the ship.

Lou: Thanks for the kind words -- I appreciate you taking the time to visit the site and to read my work. It's quite humbling to see the tens of thousands of hits that the site receives this time of year, especially since this site started as a one-off project on my personal homepage several years ago and took off on its own accord.

Not too long ago the topic of Carl Peterson came up in conversation, and I was asked if I thought his dismissal was fair. My response: I thought the time was right to make a change. Peterson made some good picks recently, including Glenn Dorsey (who could have gone #1 overall but fell to the Chiefs at #5) and Dwayne Bowe (a steal at #23 overall in 2007), but it was coming into 2008 thinking that the team was set at QB that ultimately proved to be his demise. That and not doing more to upgrade the team's secondary, which was a leading factor in the blown leads you mentioned.

Tyler Thigpen, in my estimation, is not the answer. A seventh round pick by the Vikings in 2007, Minnesota tried to sneak him onto its practice squad but saw its risk blow up when Kansas City claimed him off of waivers. His 2008 QB rating was 76.0; he threw 18 TDs but also 12 interceptions and was sacked 26 times.

Thigpen could eventually emerge as a solid NFL quarterback, but looking to him as the hope for 2009 would be foolish, particularly if the Chiefs end up with an opportunity to draft Sam Bradford and/or Matthew Stafford.

If they don't have a shot at either of those guys, or if they have signed a veteran QB via free agency, then offensive line would be my area of concentration. The last time Kansas City used a first round pick on an offensive tackle was a decade ago when they took John Tait, but he has been in Chicago since 2004. Yes, the Chiefs used a first rounder acquired from Detroit to land Branden Albert in last year's draft, but the chance to take a blue-chip offensive tackle would be most tempting.

Larry Johnson has expressed his desire to leave the team, but he probably shouldn't factor too much into the equation since he turns 30 later this year. His 4.5 yards per carry average in 2008 was impressive (after a flat 2007 season that followed him being overused by the Chiefs in 2005 and 2006), but remember that the Chiefs landed Texas RB Jamaal Charles in the RB bonanza last year (where he slid to round three) and that Charles came out early from Texas (which is rare).

A best-case scenario? Take Bradford or Stafford. If that's not an option, then secure a solid free agent QB (even an old-timer like Kerry Collins) to allow Tyler Thigpen another year to show if he's the real deal. In round two, look for a cornerback who slipped out of the first round (and there will be one or two in that position in all likelihood). Do that and build from there.


Peyton Manning and Jeff Saturday
Jeff Saturday (right) listens to instruction from Peyton Manning (left). (Icon SMI)
From: Rick McGlothlin
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Fri, Jan 2, 2009 at 9:14 PM
Subject: Chiefs

Although the Colts have had fun with their musical Olinemen this season (mainly due to injuries) there is little reason they would take another lineman in the first round in 2009. Sure, Saturday is probably a lame duck Center, but Bill Polian made certain the three linemen they took in 2008 would be able to fill that void - at a much lower cost against the cap.

The defensive tackle position, cornerback and linebacker will be priority targets this year. There's also the chance that the Colts go running back or wideout (though I'd think that would occur in rounds 2-4), depending on the status of Addai and Rhodes, as well as the eventual contract (or lackthereof) with Marvin Harrison.

Just thought I'd drop a line and add my .02. Good job on the mock overall and have a enjoyable 2009.

Lou: You raise a fair point about the Colts, as they used a sixth-round pick on Wake Forest center Steve Justice last year with the idea of having lower-priced centers there to back up veteran center Jeff Saturday.

You're right that the Colts have a major need at defensive tackle, and a player like Auburn junior DT Sen'Derrick Marks (who has already declared for the draft) could be a good pickup for the Colts. It's doubtful that Indianapolis would want to get into the Albert Haynesworth sweepstakes, and beyond Haynesworth there doesn't look to be a wealth of defensive tackles out there.

The Colts are facing the pending loss of CB Kelvin Hayden (a former second round pick) and LB Tyjuan Hagler to free agency, and I concur that targeting those positions in the draft would make sense for the team. Bill Polian has built a winner in Indianapolis, and the team's six straight 12 or more win seasons reflect the consistency that exists within the organization.


Draft King NFL Mock Draft

NFL Draft Prospect Profiles

Draft King is owned and operated by Lou Pickney. © 2003-2024, all rights reserved.
Unless otherwise noted, the views expressed here are those of Lou Pickney alone and do not necessarily reflect those of any media company.