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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
January 9, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
The floodgates have opened: Missouri redshirt sophomore WR/KR/PR Jeremy Maclin announced today that he will be entering the 2009 NFL Draft, while Texas Texas redshirt sophomore WR Michael Crabtree is reported to have decided to enter the draft with an official announcement coming on Tuesday. Crabtree is a popular projection to the #4 selection held by the Seattle Seahawks, whereas Maclin (who is an outstanding kick return and a speedy but still somewhat raw WR) is more of a borderline first round prospect, at least in my estimation. Maclin could end up going higher than that based on his great kick return skills.
This morning I accidentally happened to leave my Sirius satellite radio receiver behind on my way in to the regional Aflac office that I work out of, so I subjugated myself to the terrestrial radio choices of the Nashville airwaves. I happened upon 106.7 The Fan (ESPN Radio), which had Mike & Mike in the Morning with special guest Mel Kiper, Jr. Kiper is the real king of the NFL Draft, and as good as he is on TV, I really like the radio appearances I've heard from him.
The main thing of note from Kiper was his evaluation of Tim Tebow, fresh off of last night's BCS Title win, as a likely third or fourth round pick in the NFL Draft if he was to come out this year. What's more, Kiper projected Tebow as making the move to an H-Back position in the NFL, which surprised me a bit. When the idea of Tebow playing tight end came up in this mailbag earlier in the week, I was rather dismissive of it. But is Kiper right that Tebow would be best in that role in the NFL (and also acting as a third QB)? We shall see.
At the very least, Kiper said that he believed Tebow would be well served to return to Florida for his senior season. There's been no word from Tebow on that as of yet, and I doubt we'll hear anything from him or Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford until next week.
Today I made a few tweaks to the Draft King 2009 NFL Mock Draft, and Tebow fell out of it. That wasn't because of what Kiper said or Tebow's performance last night, but rather the thought that if the Jets really have a shot at Chris "Beanie" Wells at #19, they would very well take him over Tebow or anyone else on the board at that spot. From there it could be a slippery slide down the first round draft board. Maybe Minnesota would consider Tebow at #23, and Detroit could look at him at #20 if they don't take a QB at #1 overall, but it would likely require a trade for Tebow to go in the first round if he falls past that point.
As I've mentioned before, opinions on Tebow differ considerably. I think he is a tremendous prospect. The great nfldraftscout.com projects him as a first-round level pick. But I've heard plenty of others, including the aforementioned Kiper, who see Tebow as a day two pick if he comes out early for this year's draft.
And, now, the mailbag.
|  | Nnamdi Asomugha is in line for a major payday in 2009. (Icon SMI)
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From: Matt Segerman
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Thu, Jan 8, 2009 at 11:48 PM
Subject: raiders pick
i understand why you have michael johnson as our pick big size and speed but i think al davis will pick another db as always and grab taylor mays because of his amazing size and speed and he will but up rediculous numbers at the combine .........same for michael johnson and crabtree but crabtree should be gone by the time we pick and taylor mays fits the al davis picks.............
Lou: Al Davis does have a certain "type" of player that he tends to like, and certainly FS Taylor Mays would seem to fit that mold. The Raiders were 31st against the run in 2008, and clearly he would be helpful in that respect.
In 2006, the Raiders used the #7 overall pick on FS Michael Huff. However, Huff ended up being benched last season, and while he is due just $945,000 for this upcoming season, his $5.75 million due in 2010 would likely make him a cap casualty after next season unless he turns things around considerably in 2009.
At the other safety position, SS Gibril Wilson is 27 and just last year signed a six-year, $39 million contract. Moreover, Oakland faces another tough decision with All Pro CB Nnamdi Asomugha, who is slated for unrestricted free agency but will almost surely receive the franchise tag again as he did in 2008. In short, there is considerable money already tied up in Oakland's secondary.
Perhaps the Raiders won't go with a defensive end at this spot, but if they were to forego DE at #7 I'd think that they'd be most likely to choose from the remaining offensive tackles on the board. Either Michael Oher or Eugene Monroe would be a great addition to the Oakland offensive line, which must be improved in one way or another in order for the team to be competitive next season.
From: Tracey L. Wells
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Fri, Jan 9, 2009 at 12:57 PM
Subject: San Diego Chargers
I believe the Chargers may take a look at Knowshon Moreno of Georgia at pick 16. LT is starting to breakdown. It may not be a bad option to draft Moreno and have both of them for at least one year and either trade or release LT after that. Maybe draft Moreno and trade LT now. As happy as I was to see Darren Sproles carry this team last week, he is not an every down back. AJ Smith likes to draft players from the SEC and ACC because of their toughness and speed. I would love to see Knowshon in a Chargers uniform next season.
Lou: Tomlinson turns 30 in June, and while he has had an incredible pro career, San Diego has to give consideration to what it will do after Tomlinson hits the wall. Tomlinson has some miles on him, with 2,657 career carries and 510 career receptions -- and that doesn't count pre-season, post-season, practice, etc. He's only missed one regular season game in his career, but as he hits the wrong side of 30, the risk will go up considerably for Tomlinson.
Darren Sproles will be a free agent at the end of this season, but even if the Chargers sign him to a new deal he's not the type of back who San Diego would want to have in a primary role. San Diego drafted Jacob Hester last year, but he isn't necessarily the answer for the team's running back situation, either -- even with Tomlinson hurt, Hester is being kept as a fullback for this weekend's playoff game at Pittsburgh. Moreno (or Chris "Beanie" Wells for that matter) going to the Chargers at #16 is a distinct possibility, particularly on a team that doesn't have any glaring needs.
If the Chargers don't go with a first round running back, they might go with a running back in round three (they traded their 2009 second round selection to New England last year to acquire the pick used to land Hester). Someone like Iowa's Shonn Greene or Michigan State's Javon Ringer or Connecticut's Donald Brown could be a good fit there.
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