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Draft King Analysis

October 5, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com

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My friend Scott Massey (of 2004 live commentary fame) texted me a question on Saturday: "Is [LSU wide receiver] Terrance Tolliver a first rounder?" My thought: if Tolliver goes back for his senior year, he's probably a first rounder. If he leaves early, more likely he'll go in the second round.

The latest Draft update has a few things that might raise some eyebrows, including the inclusion of former Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree. I have him ranked higher than most might, but Crabtree is an elite talent who I saw (and still see) as the best NFL wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson.

Michael Crabtree
Will we see Michael Crabtree in the NFL in 2009? (Icon SMI)

You might also note the lack of inclusion of high-profile quarterbacks Tim Tebow or Jimmy Clausen in the latest update. Tebow, who has already won two BCS Titles and a Heisman Trophy at Florida, is for various reasons not particularly highly touted by some of the big-time scouts. Tebow might end up as a first-round pick, and clearly the guy is a highly motivated winner, but it might take the NFL Draft combine in Indianapolis for Tebow to quell the doubts of those who don't forsee him as a starting NFL quarterback.

As for Clausen, he has NFL size (6'3" 225 pounds) and has played courageous football for Notre Dame this year. If he decided to turn pro early (unlikely for a Notre Dame QB, but not impossible to fathom), it would be interesting to see if he would go before some other highly touted players like Washington's Jake Locker and Ole Miss' Jevan Snead. But, for now, I have Clausen slightly behind Locker and Snead (and Bradford and McCoy).

Just think if Mark Sanchez (who graduated this spring) had come back to USC for a redshirt senior year -- does anyone think he would have ended up as the #5 overall pick if he had been in the 2010 Draft? Maybe so, but I still think Sanchez made a very smart move. Pete Carroll's whining about Sanchez leaving with a year of eligibility but little to gain academically and nothing to gain economically has actually made me cheer for Sanchez all the more.

It has been interesting to see draft projections regarding Oklahoma tight end Jermaine Gresham, with some pegging him as a selection toward the very end of the first round. If that happens, it will be a major steal for whatever team lands him there, even moreso than the bargain Pittsburgh landed with Heath Miller sliding to the Steelers in the 2005 NFL Draft.

Gresham had season-ending surgery on his right knee last month to repair cartilage damage, and while he'll be out of action for all of 2009, I think he still projects to be a top-to-mid first-round pick in the 2010 NFL Draft. Maybe I'm wrong, but Gresham is an amazing athlete who looks to be a great fit in the NFL.

One player who I might be too high on is Alabama CB Javier Arenas. Arenas is a strong cornerback talent and, perhaps more importantly, a strong kick returner. Maybe the latest mock draft update on here that projects Arenas as a first-round pick is high, but for now I'm bullish on his chances.


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