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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
December 14, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
The big news of the day is the report that Washington Huskies QB Jake Locker has decided to return to school for his senior season in 2010. The timing was interesting, as Locker had cracked the top five on Mel Kiper's big board and was listed #1 overall on Todd McShay's mock draft. Unless Locker changes his mind before January 15, 2010, it appears that it will be a two-person race between Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford and Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen as to who will be the first signal-caller drafted this upcoming April. Barring something really unexpected happening, the 1-12 St. Louis Rams should use their first-round pick on one of those two players when their pick (almost for sure to be a top-three selection) comes up in the draft.
With Detroit starting RB Kevin Smith tearing at least one ligament in his knee yesterday, the Lions face an interesting decision looking toward next year. Clearly the Lions need to add blue-chip defensive talent in the draft, particularly early, but perhaps the Lions will end up using a second-or-third round selection on a running back. Kevin Smith's contract expires after 2010, but that is immaterial compared with the more immediate need for the team to have a viable #1 running back when the 2010 season begins.
There is plenty of history showing that running back is a position where rookies can make an immediate impact. And, with the Lions hoping to move out of the lower tier into a more competitive situation, landing a playmaking running back who could increase the team's short-term fortunes makes a great deal of sense. It saddens me to see Smith injured; I saw him play for UCF in the Liberty Bowl in December 2007, and I thought he was putting in a valiant effort on a moribund team before he got hurt. Get well soon, Smith.
The mailbag is heating up. Here we go...
From: Justin Hansen
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Thu, Dec 3, 2009 at 5:15 PM
Subject: Drafting for Need or Talent
The NFL draft, moreso than any other league, seems to draft based on need before talent on high first round picks. Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh seems to be the best prospect but that doesn't necessarily mean he will be picked first come April. Would the Rams spend another high pick on a D lineman? Highly unlikely. Would he fit in a 3-4 Defense as Cleveland runs? Hard to say. I know he will not make it past Tampa or Detroit but would a team like Cleveland pick a player that doesn't fit there system because they are that good? I personally want to see Tampa lose out and pick him first. Maybe missing out on Haynesworth was a good thing.
Lou: You're right that the high first round picks in the NFL tend to go toward need, or at the very least away from a position that is already filled. For example, since the Lions used their #1 overall pick on QB Matthew Stafford in the 2009 Draft, there's virtually no way that the Lions would use their likely to be top five pick in the 2010 Draft.
|  | Adam Carriker tried to chase down Bengals QB Carson Palmer. (Icon SMI)
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As great as Ndamukong Suh is, the Rams desperately need to draft a blue-chip quarterback prospect. The need there is just too strong to ignore. Odds are that the Rams will have their pick of the QB litter, and passing on that with such a strong need at that spot seems unlikely.
Moreover, as you mentioned, the Rams used first-round picks in two of the past years on defensive linemen. DT Adam Carriker, the team's first-round pick in 2007, has had two surgeries on his right shoulder in the past two years. Carriker's shoulder injury prevented him from playing at all this season, but Carriker is expected back in 2010, and I would anticipate that the Rams will give him at least one more shot to live up to his hype. Carriker has two years remaining on his contract ($1.07 million base for 2010 and $1.47 million base for 2011) so he wouldn't figure to be a cap casualty.
As for Suh, he needs to be in a 4-3 defense. He is not Terrence Cody (6'5" 355); Suh is fifty pounds less at 6'4" 305, with amazing agility and athleticism that would be wasted as a nose tackle in a 3-4 defense. It would surprise me greatly for Suh to be drafted by the Browns. Tampa Bay would be a great home for him, and he would also be a strong addition to Detroit.
From: Steve Connacher
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Mon, Dec 14, 2009 at 6:17 PM
Subject: Chargers 2010 Draft
Hi Lou, I love your website and your analysis.
I do have thoughts on the Chargers 2010 draft. You have them taking an OLB this year. Might I remind you that they took Larry English last year with their #1 pick? I think it’s too soon to give up on him just yet. Plus, even if Merriman leaves as expected they still have Applewhite and Tucker in reserve behind starters Philips and English. Not a position of need at this point.
Here are my comments on some other positions “of need” for the Bolts.
Safety: The Chargers have five safeties on the roster: Stillman and Oliver are good in coverage, Ellison is good against the run, and Weddle and Gregory are good overall players.
I think that the Chargers key draft targets in 2010 will be OL, DL, and RB. They need at least depth on OL if not a new starter at RT; their DL needs a NT or DT with the decline of Jamal Williams, and this is LT’s last year with the team plus Sproles is a free agent. A 4th CB might also be in play this draft.
Lou: You make a valid point about English probably keeping the Chargers from looking OLB in round one. That makes sense. It would surprise me for San Diego to take a safety, unless perhaps they have a shot at USC's Taylor Mays. OL, DL, and RB all make sense for that team, and I'll definitely keep that in mind when I redo the mock on here again soon.
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