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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
December 5, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
It's Saturday morning as I write this, and invariably the events of this weekend will have an impact on player evaluations to one degree or another. Florida vs. Alabama in the SEC Championship Game later today is easily my most anticipated matchup of the year. The winner gets either Texas or, if Texas loses, TCU, in a matchup for the BCS Title.
One very cool development, as reported this morning by Dennis Dodd on CBSSports.com, is the possibility of a Boise State vs. TCU matchup in the Fiesta Bowl. Both teams are unbeaten, and it would be great fun to see them matched up.
It's mailbag time!
From: Andre <************@gmail.com>
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Thu, Dec 3, 2009 at 8:06 AM
Subject: Hey Lou, this is Dre and I got a quick draft question
At this point in time, based on the injury Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford suffered, how does his prognosis fair into is draft stock?
Is his prognosis favorable to that of Drew Brees and the way Brees healed after suffering a similar injury?
Also, if QB Sam Bradford heals much like Brees did (and in time for the pre-draft workouts), do you believe the Rams would be more prone to select him over Notre Dame Junior QB Jimmy Clausen? And barring injury , is Bradford a better QB prospect than Clausen in the eyes of scouts, because I do know that Bradford (unlike Stafford who went before Sanchez and had a big-time arm) did not play in a Pro-Style Offense.
And as far as QB Jimmy Clausen goes, how does he compare to former USC Junior-entry QB Mark Sanchez? Is Clausen considered a similar, better, or worse (in some way form, or fashion) than Sanchez at this point in time - or do/scouts you feel they are the exact same prospect at their time of entry? What distinguishes the two from each other?
Now, we know that Redskins owner Dan Snyder wanted QB Mark Sanchez last year, so based on the previous answer, how certain are you that he'd pull the trigger on Jimmy Clausen and end the Jason Cambell era; if Clausen is available?
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Lastly, based on former Bills Hall-of-Fame QB Jim Kelly's praise/support of Gators Senior QB Tim Tebow, and ominous warning against drafting another California-QB ala Trent Edwards, JP Losman, and Rob Johnson:
a) How do you feel his comments fair into the Bills draft decision?
b) More-so, if Tebow and Bradford are both on the board at the time of the Bills pick, who is the guy today - and who is the guy come draft day (I'm not discounting that it may be the same person based on workouts/interviews)?
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Finally, three questions:
|  | JaMarcus Russell went #1 overall to Oakland in 2007. (Icon SMI)
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a) Is Oklahoma Senior OT Trent Williams a top 10 pick or would it be considered a huge reach selecting him in the top 8 - 12?
b1) Based on the career trendline of former #1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell, are the Raiders truly in the running for drafting another top 10 QB (regardless of who is projected to be on available at the time of their pick) - is that logically fathomable, a reasonable possibility, or is it against all practical sense being that Russell is commanding so much of the Raiders cap?
b2) To tie into the previous question, I have current Browns QB Derek Anderson as the #1 prospect on the Raiders offseason radar as he has the big-arm, unique (based on his 37TD season, and the drop-off since) resume, and the fact that the Browns look like theyre turning the page on the Derek Anderson tenure.
Having said that, is QB Bruce Gradkowski being given a legitimate chance to prove his worth, or is he just a stop-gap to end the embarrassing showing by JaMarcus Russell this season?
Lou: Thanks Andre -- you brought up some great questions. I'll do my best to address them point-by-point.
-Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford, in my estimation, is still the odds-on favorite to be the first quarterback drafted in 2010. Shoulder injuries are no joke, but Bradford underwent successful surgery in Birmingham on his injured shoulder and appears to be on his way to recovering.
As far as comparing/contrasting with Brees' 2005 shoulder injury, my understanding is that Brees suffered rotator cuff damage when he got hurt against the Broncos along with tearing the labrum in his right shoulder. I've not heard anything about rotator cuff issues with Bradford (who suffered a severe AC joint sprain), and despite the problems that are inherently involved with a shoulder injury, Bradford still looks to be the top quarterback prospect for 2010. Brees' post-injury success doesn't hurt things for Bradford, either.
Jimmy Clausen is a talented passer who could easily end up as a top ten pick if he comes out early, but I'd give the nod to Bradford over him at this point. Clausen had great accuracy and has shown a strong arm at Notre Dame, but Bradford appears to be the closest thing to a ready-to-go quarterback in this year's crop. And, particularly if it is the Rams drafting the first quarterback in the draft (which is the anticipation at this point), I'd think they'd want a player who could be able to play as quickly as possible out of the chute.
-As for the Bills, it should be Bradford over Tebow all day for them. Bradford may be the first player taken in the draft, and if Buffalo gets a chance to draft him they should pounce on him immediately. I don't think they'll get that opportunity, even if the Bills free-fall through the rest of the season. Bradford over Clausen over the field, with Jake Locker and Tim Tebow in the mix in there.
-Comparing Clausen with Sanchez, the stats lean toward Clausen, particularly with completion percentage and TD-to-INT ratio. Clausen has been sacked 80 times (yes, eighty times) during his three years at Notre Dame, which trumps even Brady Quinn (78 sacks in three years) in that department. Sanchez clearly didn't have the reps that Clausen, or even Quinn, had during their careers, but he sustained less than 20 sacks during his time at USC.
Interestingly, Clausen and Sanchez physically are almost identical (6'3" 225 pound range). Clausen has the experience edge, but Sanchez also had fewer miles on the odometer when he entered the NFL. But the winner is already Sanchez: he ignored the whining of USC head coach Pete Carroll, entered the draft, and landed a top five pick position payday. Perhaps Clausen will be a top five pick as well, but given that there are a number of teams likely drafting high who already have developing blue-chip QBs, I suspect that he'll be taken outside of the top five.
-If the right player is on the board when Washington's first-round selection comes up, I could see the Redskins taking a quarterback. Remember the whispers from March saying that the Redskins were looking to acquire Jay Cutler from Denver? I'm sure that Jason Campbell does. As good as the Redskins defense has played (when healthy), the offense needs all kinds of help. But, while drafting a QB would make sense, it wouldn't surprise me if the Redskins drafted an offensive lineman or speedy Clemson RB C.J. Spiller.
-Oklahoma OT Trent Williams is a top ten prospect according to some scouts. He could use a bit more size, but he can improve on that. He's generally been healthy, a good leader, and he has prototype height for an offensive tackle. Him going in the top ten, particularly in a year that's not overrun with offensive tackle prospects, is entirely possible.
-It's highly unlikely that the Raiders will use a first-round pick in 2010 (or 2011) on a quarterback. The last two first-round QB picks of the Raiders were Russell in 2007 and Todd Marinovich in 1991. Ouch. If Bruce Gradkowski can keep winning, he'll have a shot at the job for 2010. If not, it wouldn't surprise me to see Derek Anderson end up as a Raider.
Oakland isn't as far away from being competitive as some might think. With a bit of upgrading on its offense line and a solid signal-caller, the Raiders could surprise some people in 2010. Just something to keep in mind...
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