National Football League
Draft King Analysis
February 10, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
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In a move that came as little surprise, the Houston Texans today cut RB Ahmad Green. Green, who turns 32 next week, had two years remaining on his contract. This past August, the Texans convinced Green to restructure his contract. But, with Green due $4.5 million if he made the opening day roster in 2009 and with Steve Slaton asserting himself as the Texans' feature running back, the need for Green in Houston was lessened considerably.
 | Ahman Green averaged 3.85 yards per rush in Houston. (Icon SMI)
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Green had some great seasons in Green Bay, but he was well past his prime when Houston signed him to a four-year, $23 million contract with $6.5 million guaranteed. The Texans could have avoided this had they heeded my warning about Green two years ago. I pointed out that Green was "not the same RB who peaked in 2003", which proved to be quite accurate. In my opinion, giving more than a nominal amount of guaranteed money to a running back over age 30 is quite foolish.
Adam Schefter made a good point on the official NFL website that the use of the franchise tag (in its non-exclusive form) by Baltimore on ILB Ray Lewis would require a one-year tender of $11,313,600. That is much less than the $8,304,000 that had originally been estimated.
The reason? The required tender is the *higher* amount of the average of the top five players at the position or 120 percent of a player’s prior year salary. Lewis pulled in $9,428,814 in salary in 2008 according to the NFL, and it's the 120% of Lewis' 2008 salary which would cost the Ravens considerably more money than what was originally estimated if the team uses the franchise tag on Baltimore.
My anticipation is that the Ravens will franchise Terrell Suggs, lose Ray Lewis, and fight like crazy to sign Bart Scott to a new deal before February 27. It's a tall order for Baltimore GM Ozzie Newsome.
One topic that I haven't yet examined on here yet is what the Miami Dolphins could potentially do with their franchise tag. This blog post indicates that OT Vernon Carey, ILB Channing Crowder, and SS Yeremiah Bell are the three Dolphins heading toward free agency who are the most likely to be franchised, and that is backed up by various other website speculations out there.
While I imagine that the Dolphins would like to keep Channing Crowder, reports out of Miami are that the two sides are far apart on contract negotiations. Use of the franchise tag on Crowder would cost $8.3 million guaranteed for a one-year contract, and I don't think that Miami would be inclined to go for that -- particularly with the team likely to make a strong run at a top-flight OLB via either free agency or in the draft.
As for Vernon Carey, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported last month that signing Carey to a new deal is a top priority of the team. The story didn't give any indication that the franchise tag was being considered for Carey, and at $8.45 million for one year the tag would seem unlikely to be used, particularly with OT Jake Long earning #1 overall pick money.
Perhaps the most likely candidate for the tag is SS Yeremiah Bell, who is coming off of a career season where he made 100 solo tackles. The non-exclusive frachise tag for safeties is $6.34 million, and while that is a high number, for a player in Bell who had a great season but who turns 31 next month it might actually be the best course of action for Miami.
I'm not sure if any Bill Parcells team has ever utilized the franchise tag. If anyone knows of a database or webpage listing the history of the NFL franchise tag, I'd love to know about it.
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