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Draft King Analysis

February 6, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com

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The New England Patriots wasted no time in assigning its 2009 franchise tag to QB Matt Cassel, placing the designation on him yesterday. The moment Cassel signs it he will be guaranteed $14.65 million for 2009 and will be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2010. In comparison, the Browns only had to give up $7 million guaranteed to keep Derek Anderson out of restricted free agency last year (via a three year, $24 million contract).

If I was in Cassel's position, I would sign that contract immediately. He has already proven that he can win. And, even if it means playing backup for another year, doing so to the tune of $14.65 million and *then* having a crack at unrestricted free agency seems like a very sweet deal to me.

The Patriots hope to have Tom Brady fully recovered from his left knee ACL and MCL tears that he suffered in September 2008 by the start of training camp. But, if Brady isn't ready to go (or if he suffers another injury in 2009), the Patriots know that they have a dependable quarterback on the roster with Cassel backing him up. At least on the surface this looks like a win-win situation.

For a second consecutive year, the Raiders appear primed to use the exclusive version of the franchise tag to keep All Pro CB Nnamdi Asomugha on their roster. To my knowledge this would be the first time that a player has been hit twice with the exclusive franchise tag, let alone twice by the same team in consecutive years. Raiders owner Al Davis indicated that the exclusive tag will go on either Asomugha or punter Shane Lechler. My money is on Asomugha. Why? Because who in their right mind would give up two first-round picks to sign away a franchise-tagged punter?

Corey Williams
DT Corey Williams is better suited for a 3-4 defense. (Icon SMI)
It's worth noting that the Green Bay Packers have announced plans to shift from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 defense for 2009. I imagine that the Packers would like to have 6'4" 315 pound DT Corey Williams back right about now -- after using the franchise tag to keep him off the market, Green Bay traded Williams to Cleveland last year in exchange for a second-round pick used to draft Louisville QB Brian Brohm. This article gives some interesting insight into what the Packers might do to adjust to a 3-4 defense with its current roster.

As things have worked out, I have happened to take in more sports talk radio in the past couple of days than I normally do (ESPN Radio, Jim Rome, local Nashville stuff, etc.) and there has been quite a bit of talk about the future of the Baltimore Ravens linebacking corps. I wrote about this last month, but with free agency moving closer every day, the odds become slimmer and slimmer that the Ravens will be able to keep Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Bart Scott. Scott would seem to be the odd man out... until you factor in recent comments by Ray Lewis saying that, unlike Terrell Suggs, he is not willing to give Baltimore a "hometown discount" to retain his services.

The Ravens have the franchise tag to play, and if all three players remain free agents by this time next week, the team will have to make a tough decision. Ideally for the Ravens they could secure Suggs to a long-term deal, use the franchise tag on Lewis, and then do what they can to keep Scott in house. Lewis is the oldest of the trio, turning 34 later this year. Scott turns 29 in August, while Suggs won't be 27 until October.

If the past is any indication, the Ravens won't let Suggs escape. Losing Ray Lewis to the Jets (where longtime defensive coordinator Rex Ryan is now the head coach) or the Cowboys would be a painful loss for Baltimore. But, particularly with articles like this one indicating that Lewis has interest in potentially playing for either of those two teams, Lewis leaving Baltimore might be an inescapable reality.

And, as long as I've brought up the Jets, here's a mailbag question that fits in quite nicely on the topic.


Jarett Dillard
Rice WR Jarett Dillard could be a be a sleeper pick on day two in the 2009 NFL Draft. (Icon SMI)
From: Avraham Wein
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Thu, Feb 5, 2009 at 4:48 PM
Subject: Jets

Hi,
Huge fan. I have a question about the jets needs. What do you think about the jets getting a wide receiver and go in the second round for a running back. Additionally the jets had some major problems late in the season with their defense in pass rushing so in what way do you think they will be able to address that matter.

Lou: The Jets have Jerricho Cotchery (26 years old) under contract through 2011, while Laveranues Coles (31 years old) is entering the final year of his contract with a high base salary of $6 million. So there is an argument to be made for the team to consider some of the wide receiver prospects in the draft, though I'd think the Jets would be more likely to go with a wideout in round two, particularly with taller targets like Ohio State WR Brian Robiskie (6'3") and Rutgers WR Kenny Britt (6'4") tracking in that second round range. Alternately, the Jets could wait until day two of the draft and perhaps land a sleeper like Florida WR Louis Murphy or Rice WR Jarett Dillard (a personal favorite of mine).

The Jets struggled in stopping the pass (finishing 29th in the NFL in passing yardage per game allowed), but with Calvin Pace and Bryan Thomas coming from the OLB spots and Shaun Ellis getting more pressure as a 3-4 DE than most, I don't know that the pass rush was necessarily the problem. And, particularly with Rex Ryan coming on board, I strongly suspect that he will be able to maximize the defensive attack of the Jets.

As for the running back position, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Jets bring in another running back, but that will depend in large part to the team's evaluations of both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington. The Jets might opt to go with that for one more year and then target a blue-chip RB in the 2010 Draft.


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