National Football League
Draft King Analysis
February 7, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
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There are some interesting observations that I have found recently about the projections that I have up on this site about the 2009 NFL Draft. Here's a look at some of them:
The Quad City Times reports that Draft King was the only major draft site to project Shonn Greene as a first round pick (#31 to Arizona). Since that article was written I have changed the pick to LeSean "Shady" McCoy, but the reality is that projecting a specific position that far from the top spot is a difficult task. The further you get from #1 overall, the less likely you are to be able to accurately pick out a specific position that a team will target. But, of those teams with late picks in round one, the Cardinals and RB seems like the most likely late first round combo to happen.
| CB Mike Mickens may slide to round two or three in the draft. (Icon SMI)
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The Dayton Daily News pointed out that having Mike Mickens in round one is "about a round higher than most have been projecting". That is an accurate statement, and when I redo the mock later this weekend it's likely that Mickens won't make the first round cut. If that holds true, Mickens could turn out to be a bargain pick for someone in round two or three.
This blog took me to task for projecting Percy Harvin to Miami at #21 overall, citing the author's belief that Harvin would be off the board by then. Perhaps the author is right on that; as always, time will tell. At this point I actually have Harvin going to Miami at #25 overall, even lower than the original spot.
It's possible that Harvin could go in the top twenty, but without elite size I foresee Harvin sliding down a little further than some think. Michael Crabtree is the runaway #1 WR prospect, and there is a gap between Crabtree and the next wave, lead by Harvin. I'll say this about Harvin: the guy knows how to get open and he is a great playmaker. He is an impressive player.
I anticipate more questioning and dissenting between now and late April, but I welcome it. It can be easy to fall into a groove with a certain player in thinking he belongs in a certain range, where in reality he may have fallen or raised in the rankings since the last time I gave his status a thorough investigation. That's part of the reason why I love there being more and more mock drafts out there -- the more opinions and analysis that is available, the better. And if I can utilize that, in turn, to make Draft King more accurate, then that is a positive for all involved.
There is speculation that the Denver Broncos may be shifting to a 3-4 defense. They would join the Packers as the second team this off-season to go from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense, but it could cause some personnel changes to be needed in Denver as a result. If that happens, that raises the stock for Alabama senior DT/NT Terrence Cody (6'5" 370) even more for the 2010 NFL Draft.
I'm about to redo the Draft King mock, and one player that I will finally put into the first round in Penn State OLB/DE Aaron Maybin. At 6'4" 250 with sub 4.7 speed, Maybin could prove too enticing to slip out of the first round.
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