National Football League
February 7, 2009
Draft King Analysis
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
There are some interesting observations that I have found recently about the projections that I have up on this site about the 2009 NFL Draft. Here's a look at some of them:
The Quad City Times reports that Draft King was the only major draft site to project Shonn Greene as a first round pick (#31 to Arizona). Since that article was written I have changed the pick to LeSean "Shady" McCoy, but the reality is that projecting a specific position that far from the top spot is a difficult task. The further you get from #1 overall, the less likely you are to be able to accurately pick out a specific position that a team will target. But, of those teams with late picks in round one, the Cardinals and RB seems like the most likely late first round combo to happen.
The Dayton Daily News pointed out that having Mike Mickens in round one is "about a round higher than most have been projecting". That is an accurate statement, and when I redo the mock later this weekend it's likely that Mickens won't make the first round cut. If that holds true, Mickens could turn out to be a bargain pick for someone in round two or three.
|CB Mike Mickens may slide to round two or three in the draft. (Icon SMI)
This blog took me to task for projecting Percy Harvin to Miami at #21 overall, citing the author's belief that Harvin would be off the board by then. Perhaps the author is right on that; as always, time will tell. At this point I actually have Harvin going to Miami at #25 overall, even lower than the original spot.
It's possible that Harvin could go in the top twenty, but without elite size I foresee Harvin sliding down a little further than some think. Michael Crabtree is the runaway #1 WR prospect, and there is a gap between Crabtree and the next wave, lead by Harvin. I'll say this about Harvin: the guy knows how to get open and he is a great playmaker. He is an impressive player.
I anticipate more questioning and dissenting between now and late April, but I welcome it. It can be easy to fall into a groove with a certain player in thinking he belongs in a certain range, where in reality he may have fallen or raised in the rankings since the last time I gave his status a thorough investigation. That's part of the reason why I love there being more and more mock drafts out there -- the more opinions and analysis that is available, the better. And if I can utilize that, in turn, to make Draft King more accurate, then that is a positive for all involved.
There is speculation that the Denver Broncos may be shifting to a 3-4 defense. They would join the Packers as the second team this off-season to go from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense, but it could cause some personnel changes to be needed in Denver as a result. If that happens, that raises the stock for Alabama senior DT/NT Terrence Cody (6'5" 370) even more for the 2010 NFL Draft.
I'm about to redo the Draft King mock, and one player that I will finally put into the first round in Penn State OLB/DE Aaron Maybin. At 6'4" 250 with sub 4.7 speed, Maybin could prove too enticing to slip out of the first round.