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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
March 24, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
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There is an interesting list on this site that claims to have the Wonderlic scores for some prospects in the 2009 NFL Draft. The big headline is that Georgia QB Matthew Stafford reportedly scored a 38 on the test, which is a strong score. USC QB Mark Sanchez is listed with a 28, while Kansas State QB Josh Freeman posted a 27.
On the wide receiver side, the numbers aren't so good: Missouri's Jeremy Maclin is tops among the elite prospects at 25. Michael Crabtree of Texas Tech (the top wide receiver prospect) scored a 15, while Maryland's Darrius Heyward-Bey had a 14. It gets worse: Florida's Percy Harvin posted a 12, and North Carolina's Hakeem Nicks slid in with an 11.
How important is the Wonderlic? It depends who you ask. 49ers QB Alex Smith scored a 40 in 2005, and to this point Smith hasn't lived up to that score (or his #1 overall selection status from that draft). At the same time, a low score for a quarterback is generally seen as a negative thing. So believe what you wish on that.
It's interesting to me that, as of this writing, neither Mel Kiper nor Todd McShay (both of ESPN) have Seattle drafting Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree at the #4 overall spot. One line of thought I've been justifying this projection is that Seattle signed T.J. Houshmandzadeh this off-season. But Houshmandzadeh turns 32 in September, Nate Burleson is coming off of a torn ACL in his left knee and may be in his final year in Seattle with a voidable year for 2010, and Deion Branch is likely to be a cap casualty next year barring him having a strong 2009 season. So, for now, I'm actually quite comfortable keeping Crabtree in the #4 spot, though if Seattle opted to go with an offensive tackle it wouldn't be terribly surprising.
My next redo of the Draft King mock draft will likely have Boston College DT B.J. Raji going higher than the #11 spot where he is currently slated to go. There is considerable speculation that Cleveland might go for Raji at the #5 spot; I doubt that Raji will go to Seattle at #4 (since they traded for Detroit DT Cory Redding and signed DT Colin Cole, who most recently played with the Packers). I don't think that Raji is necessarily a lock for the Browns, particularly with the Browns potentially looking to get a pass-rushing OLB, potentially looking to Texas DE Brian Orakpo to move into a 3-4 OLB position. Raji is 6'2" 335, and I'm not sure that he's an ideal fit to play nose tackle. But we shall see.
A point of great interest to me is the varying opinion concerning Florida State DE Everette Brown. Some see him as a potential top ten pick, while others think he will end up going toward the very end of round one. Brown is 6'2" 255, he ran a 4.73 40 at the combine, and he could potentially make the move to OLB in a 3-4 defense. There are all sort of opinions about the DE/OLB prospects out there (below Wake Forest OLB Aaron Curry and Orakpo), and it should be very interesting to see the order where players in that just-below-the-top tier end up going.
The latest speculation on Kansas State QB Josh Freeman seems to be that he'll end up going somewhere in the 17-20 range. The NFL is a copycat league, and with the success that the Ravens had with Joe Flacco (6'6" 235) last year, some may think that Freeman (who is 6'6" 250) might be snagged by a team hoping for lightning to strike twice. I'm still not sure that we'll end up seeing that happen, but with teams like the Jets and the Buccaneers potentially looking to draft a quarterback in round one, it could happen. And, if the Lions opt not to go to with Matthew Stafford at #1 overall, perhaps they would give consideration to Freeman at #20.
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