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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
April 10, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
Pro Football Weekly has a list of what it considers the first round’s five most risky picks of 2009. I'm not so sure about Rey Maualuga, but going with WR, CB and DT as risky picks (as the other four are) is actually *smart* since those positions (along with QB) often have the highest bust rate.
There are new developments in the NFL prospect failed drug test story (as I first wrote about a few days ago). Many of the athletes named by NFLDraftBible.com as having failed a drug test at the NFL combine have denied having failed a drug test, and interestingly a report that was originally up on the Sports Illustrated website indicated that Raji had failed his test, but the story was pulled and, as of this writing, remains down.
It's mailbag time.
From: Rodrigo Muniz
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Wed, Apr 8, 2009 at 11:16 AM
Subject: dallas 1st round
Hey Lou the Draft is near, and right now I believe the Cowboys biggest need is a ILB. With Gerald Sensabaugh signed, who I think will be a steal, the S selection can come to the 3rd or even 4th round and another need, the backup QB problem was solved with Kitna and a young gun might be picked late in the draft. The way I see it Keith Brooking was brought to town to mentor a young and good ILB that can even start early in the season, this guy can be either James Laurinaitis or Rey Maualuga but the problem:they are 1st round caliber players. The Cowboys have their 2nd, CLE 3rd, and two 4ths, with this they have power to move up in the 2nd round or to a late 1st round pick. How far will both players fall? And if these 2 guys aren't available, is a 2nd round caliber ILB left? Tell me what you think of this scenario.
Lou: It would surprise me if Dallas tried trading up into the first round. If a player like Ohio State's James Laurinaitis falls into the second round, then perhaps the Cowboys might consider moving up, but otherwise I suspect that they'll look for good value pickups in the second round.
As for the ILBs beyond Maualuga and Laurinaitis, there is quite a drop from them to the second level. There are some good players in the mix, including LSU's Darry Beckwith and South Carolina's Jasper Brinkley, though I suspect that they will fall to day two of the draft. Perhaps the Cowboys might consider going ILB in round three, where there will be some talented players available with a lower price tag.
From: Danny Stone
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Wed, Apr 8, 2009 at 12:51 PM
Subject: draft day trades...
It seems like this year more than any other that everybody is considering moving down in the first round to aquire more picks. Who in your opinion has the best chance of doing so?
I know it's well-documented that it's nearly impossible to move out of the #5 spot but do you think the Browns could possibly move down. (They only have 5 picks with 3 being 1st day picks). The reason I ask about Cleveland is because it's almost a certainty they look to go defense early and often but they don't seem to be sold on anybody this early. If they move down to 9-15 they could grab Malcolm jenkins to be the playmaker on defense they haven't had since.....a looooooong time ago.
Lou: The Browns are stuck at #5, and while trading down would be quite beneficial for them, doing so (as you referenced and as I've written about on here many times before) out of the top five is very difficult. They very likely will have to take their pick of the players on the board there, which could be very interesting.
Cleveland has many defensive needs, but if Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree is on the board when the Browns go on the clock at pick #5, he could be too good to pass up. With Kellen Winslow traded away, Donte Stallworth facing criminal charges in Florida, and Braylon Edwards reportedly on the trading block, Crabtree could be a solid pickup for the Browns.
Malcolm Jenkins is also a possibility at #5, though that would be skewing earlier than what most prognostications have him going. But the Browns are landlocked at that #5 spot, and short of trading up with Kansas City at #3 to get Aaron Curry, I don't think we'll see Cleveland make any moves at the top of the draft.
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