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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
April 28, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
The 2009 NFL Draft is in the history books, and most of the higher profile undrafted free agents have been signed in the annual frenzy of post-draft pickups. Here's a complete list of players signed hours after the draft, including Texas WR Quan Cosby. In an odd scene on day two of the draft, Cosby appeared with comedian Bill Cosby in a number of segments on ESPN with reporter Erin Andrews.
 | Quan Cosby went undrafted this past weekend. (Icon SMI)
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In my opinion, Edwards was saddled a tough role, trying to be a straight-forward reporter while dealing with Bill Cosby doing schtick. It's already tough enough for Edwards to be taken seriously (as she should be) since she is a good-looking blonde woman, but putting her in there with Cosby and Cosby was more challenging for her than I think most people might appreciate.
Some free agent picks that could pay off on down the line: Missouri QB Chase Patton (Bears), Nebraska RB Marlon Lucky (Bengals), Boise State RB Ian Johnson (Vikings), South Carolina S Emanuel Cook (Jets) and Texas A&M DE Michael Bennett (Seahawks). Bennett was ranked #1 on ESPN.com's Top 20 undrafted player list.
It's shocking to me that Mississippi State FS Derek Pegues remains unsigned as of this writing after going undrafted, but that happens sometimes in the NFL. If he lands in the right situation, he could help a team both in secondary depth and in kick returning.
Up now is the 2010 NFL Draft, which is nearly a year away. I took the Vegas odds for winning the Super Bowl for setting the order, which I've found is the only way I can do it at this point in the cycle without getting complaints. Today I've made my first post-2009 Draft update, which reflects an important defensive player who I neglected to include, as the e-mail below correctly indicates.
From: Justin Hansen
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Fri, Apr 24, 2009 at 6:33 PM
Subject: Mock
How is Ndamukong Suh not in your 2010 first round!?! the kid is a stud!!
Lou: You're right that Suh is a strong player, and at 6'4" 305 he has NFL quality size. Particularly with there being more of a demand for large defensive tackles to play nose tackle with the 3-4 defense being used more and more, he seems like a player who (with a good 2009 season) could end up going in round one. I don't know that he'd go ahead of Alabama NT Terrance Cody, but there should be plenty of demand for DT/NT in the first round next year.
From: Chris Jenner
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Sun, Apr 26, 2009 at 6:19 PM
Subject: Great prediction at #7 slot for the raiders
I wanted to congratulate you on a great prediction with Darrius Heyward Bey. I happen to think that this is a great fit for the Raiders as you stated. Something that all these "so called" experts overlook when blasting the Raiders for picking him over Crabtree is that Crabtree made it pretty apparent that he did not want to be a Raider. Why would you select a guy #7 overall and pay him millions of dollars when he just publicly shunned your team 2 days prior. Also, Tom Cable wanted team players without the ego and selfish attitude that he claims has been a major problem. Crabtree has been marked by several teams as having a "diva attitude"(Cleveland), and St. Louis,while Darrius seems to be a very polite and down to earth young man with a great work ethic. He is the only receiver in the 1st round skill level to come from an NFL style offense, while the others come from a spread system. If anyone doesn't think that the spread system artificially inflates prospects potential, just look at David Klingler who up until recently held the NCAA record for touchdown passes in a single season. How did he end up doing in the NFL? I'm not suggesting that Crabtree won't be a decent receiver, but he is NOT going to be a Larry Fitgerald. I thought Todd McShay's comments directly after the Raiders selection("This has bust written all over it") was disrespectful to both the Raiders and Heyward Bey. He lambasted the Raiders for passing up Crabtree even thought it was clear he had no interest in becoming a Raider. I agree with you that Heyward Bey has the potential to be an elite talent in the NFL with the right coaching, having all the attributes needed, the one I think that is overlooked the most is his mindset. Have you heard interviews with this kid? If he doesn't succeed it will not be through lack of effort, and in saying that I think he will succeed and prove most people wrong. I hope that you continue to have success and again I think your assessment of Heyward Bey is correct, even though it may be a minority.
Lou: I'm pleased that I was accurate in predicting Oakland's selection of Darrius Heyward-Bey for the sake of the site. I became a fan of DHB during his time at Maryland, and he is an amazing athlete. He didn't put up huge numbers at Maryland, but he has tremendous potential.
With DHB vs. Michael Crabtree, they'll be playing across the bay from each other, which should be interesting since they will be playing geographically close to one another. I'm very high on Crabtree as an NFL prospect, and while he turned some people off (based on what I've heard and read) from his behavior and demeanor, I think he was an absolute steal for the 49ers at #10. He may not be the next Larry Fitzgerald, but I think he's easily the best third-year wide receiver prospect to come out since Calvin Johnson.
Todd McShay is entitled to his opinion, and time will tell if he is right. For me it's not about what I think a team should do, or who I think is the best prospect. That doesn't matter at all. I'm not a scout and I'm not a GM. My goal is to analyze and project what seems to be the most likely course of action by any given team in a given draft. And as for how things will play out, the real results won't begin to appear until three years from now for this draft class and then become much clearer five years removed from the process.
As for DHB, I feel pretty strongly that if Oakland hadn't taken him at #7 that he could have fallen into the 25-30 range. But, based on what I've observed about Raiders owner/GM Al Davis over time, I strongly suspected that Heyward-Bey would be an ideal Al Davis selection. That held true, and that to me matters more than how I think the two players will do in their respective careers.
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