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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
April 7, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
This is a fascinating time of year for behind-the-scenes power plays being attempted by people on many different levels of the NFL. Teams are looking to possibly trade up (or down) in the draft, or at least figure out what they might have to give up (or get in return) to do so. Select players are contemplating holding out, particularly those who are angling to pressure their given team into agreeing to a new contract. And, with the days before the draft dwindling down, high-profile players are doing private workouts for teams, hoping to help their draft status however they can.
The cloak-and-dagger efforts are in full effect for teams scouting players but trying to make it look like they're not actually interested in the player. I'm not sure how deep it goes (and it probably depends on the team), but it wouldn't surprise me for there to be teams that have brought in players they have no intention of drafting in an attempt to throw rivals off the scent of their actual target. With the ultra high stakes involved in the draft, almost nothing would surprise me in the subterfuge department.
Time now for the mailbag...
From: Nicholas Gniadek
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Sun, Apr 5, 2009 at 10:12 PM
Subject: Cleveland Drafts Pick
Hey Lou, I was hoping for your opinion on this one regarding who you think Cleveland will draft. Now me persoanlly I would draft Brian Orakpo at number 5 if I were Cleveland, however with Mangini comming over from New York and his disaster last year with Vernon Gholston as their top pick, who reminds me physically of Orakpo, do you think that might scare the Browns away from that type of player? Also I am a huge Patriots fan, what are the possibilities of Brian Cushing being avaible when they pick, with the steroid rumors going around with him, I would love to see him in a Patriots unifrom, also with the ammo that the Pats have could they possibily trade up to land him if he doesnt fall?
Lou: You make a very interesting point with the comparison of Brian Orakpo to Vernon Gholston as NFL prospects. Gholston had his struggles during his 2008 rookie campaign, not starting a single game and collecting just 13 tackles. He had trouble adjusting to the 3-4 defense used by the Jets, though I wouldn't necessarily count him out long-term with his amazing skill set.
First things first for the Browns: would they want Orakpo to play DE or OLB in the 3-4? Orakpo is a bit slower than Gholston in 40 time, but Orakpo has the capacity to play both DE and OLB in the 3-4 defense, which may make him appealing. Odds are that he'd be drafted in the top five to be an OLB threat. You make an astute observation that Mangini might hesitate to draft Orakpo after what happened with Gholston, but Orakpo is also very similar in size (6'3" 260) to Cowboys OLB DeMarcus Ware (6'4" 260). Whatever the case, Mangini knows that an elite OLB is a critical part of any defense.
If the Browns feel that Boston College DT/NT B.J. Raji can play nose tackle effectively, they might take him there instead, but ultimately it will come down to who is on the board and how the Browns evaluate the talent there.
As for Cushing, his agent has denied the steroid rumors in a "Lou Pickney strongly-worded letter" (as Bubba the Love Sponge might say) type of response. As with the other rumors, the NFL teams know the truth, though it makes it tough for people who make mock drafts to be accurate when that information isn't available to the general public. I understand why the league has its rules in place, though.
Cushing seems like a good fit for the Patriots, and funny enough one day after you sent your e-mail, I ended up slotting Cushing falling to New England at #23. That was just by chance (though I do take all feedback and suggestions into consideration, since the more opinions I consider, the more likely I am to be as accurate as possible), but a player like either Cushing or perhaps his USC teammate Clay Matthews would be a nice fit for New England.
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