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National Football League
Draft King Analysis
May 20, 2009
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
49ers cornerback Walt Harris, 34, tore the ACL in his right knee during practice yesterday and could miss the entire 2009 season. Harris had been penciled in as a starter for 2009; early speculation is that third-year pro Tarell Brown will take over his spot opposite Nate Clements.
An interesting development has begun with the top two offensive tackles in the draft. According to this article from Pro Football Talk, #2 overall pick Jason Smith (Rams) and #6 overall pick Andre Smith (Bengals) are both likely to end up playing right offensive tackle, at least initially. It's the left offensive tackle position that is typically the most valued of all offensive line spots, and moreover it's also typically the most highly paid spot. It should be interesting to see if that impacts negotiations for both players with their respective teams.
There is a case to be made for the importance of right offensive tackles on teams with left-handed quarterbacks, since the blind side for a lefty is on his right. But since both St. Louis' Marc Bulger and Cincinnati's Carson Palmer are both right-handed, that doesn't come into play in this situation.
The mailbag is surprisingly active considering that we're on the other side of the NFL Draft, but interest in the NFL stays strong year-round.
From: Jason Dachman
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Wed, May 20, 2009 at 11:57 AM
Subject: Just how crazy have rookie salaries become?
Just wanted to shoot this article your way. Thought it was perfect for this post-draft time of the year.
One of our writers over at Bleacher Report breaks down the salaries of rookies taken in the draft over the past few years and gives a solid analysis of just how ridiculous they have become:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/178725-the-draft-rookie-salaries-and-inequality-in-the-nfl
Feel free to throw up the link on your site or reference it in a blog post.
Lou: The article points out the many busts that have come along in the draft in the past 10 seasons, which is one of the unfortunate realities that is connected with the draft. It goes on to make a strong example of financial inequity between Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford:
"The problem is this simply fact—Matthew Stafford will make more money than Tom Brady! Stafford has yet to throw a pass even in an exhibition NFL game and he will earn more than a three-time Super Bowl winner and two-time MVP???"
The inherent difficulty is that, with the draft system, a player is forced to negotiate with just one team if he wants to play in the NFL that upcoming season. If the draft was abolished, an elite player could play the field and determine his true fair market value. But, without that, it's impossible to gauge the true value of any given rookie.
|  | Matthew Stafford was the top pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. (Icon SMI)
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Stafford was an unusual case since Detroit was determined to sign their #1 overall pick in advance of the draft. The idea of him receiving $41.7 million guaranteed seems wild, but what if Stafford had been able to field offers from every team in the league? Would Minnesota (or another team) have trumped Detroit with $42 million guaranteed? It's not possible to know that.
The NFL, with its time-honored tradition of promoting parity, likely won't be doing away with the draft anytime soon. You might see a push in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement for there to be some sort of firm rookie salary limit put in place, though with so many NFL teams being well under the salary cap as of this writing that might be tough to negotiate. The real problem that many perceive falls with players drafted in the top five spots. But owners have long memories, and the first-round holdouts of the 1980s (such as John Elway, Jim Everett, Bo Jackson, and Cornelius Bennett) are something that they would prefer to keep in the past.
More relevant to the NFL is the reality of what will happen if there isn't a new CBA put in place by the upcoming off-season. Pat Karwan of nfl.com wrote last year about what will happen without a new CBA being negotiated by the end of this upcoming season. He cites three important points:
1. Free agency will require six years of service (instead of four years in 2010 and five years in 2011).
2. Teams will have three tags to use to restrict free agents (one franchise tag and two transition tags) instead of just one tag, as they do now.
3. Teams that go deep in the playoffs could have some spending restrictions.
What's more is that, while there will be no cap, there will also be no minimum spending floor. Players like DeMarcus Ware, who in the past would have been eligible for unrestricted free agency after four years of service, won't be restricted free agents in the off-season without a new CBA.
From: Donald Erlick
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Wed, May 20, 2009 at 12:42 PM
Subject: Recap Draft 2009 & Projection Draft 2010
In retrospect the draft went down very much differently than anticipated in a way that several players slipped way down (Maualuga, Oher) while went much higher than they were projected (Jackson is actually more of a shocker than DHB).
Of course I was very excited to see Orakpo slip to the Redskins at 13 and in my opinion they did the right thing in pulling the trigger on him. However the rest of the draft I'm not all that sold on. No O-Line? One could make a case for Kevin Barnes and his physically play (Just ask Jahvid Best on that) but the later picks are very suspect. RB turned LB when there's still Duke Robinson on the board.. Not to mention hearing reports of the Redskins working Orakpo at SAM for 1&2 down seems just plain wrong. Of course training camp hasn't started and they'll (hopefully) come to their senses before it's too late.
Looking forward to 2010 I'm wondering what the plan is. They're putting together a tough defense if the picks pan out and Haynesworth keeps to his form of the past 2 years.
Personally I'd like to see them draft an ILB/OLB. Brandon Spikes or Rolando McClain come to mind.
Although that might only come to happen if Jason Campbell is allowed and willing to take the last chance he appears to have in Washington. Maybe, just maybe, Snyder and Cerrato might mature to be smarter team builders. But until I actually see that happening I'll doubt it.
|  | Rey Maualuga fell to Cincinnati at pick #38. (Icon SMI)
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Lou: In hindsight I probably kept Rey Maualuga projected higher than I should have. As for Michael Oher, he slipped some, which isn't terribly surprising considering how stacked the draft was at offensive tackle and given that his run blocking skills were considered good but not great by many scouts. Oher proved to be a great value pick for Baltimore at #23, and he improved his run blocking at Ole Miss in 2008, which should be an encouraging sign for the future for Ravens fans.
I'm proud of calling the Darrius Heyward-Bey pick at #7, though had he not gone there then he might have fallen out of the first round altogether. It's easier to project teams with heavy-handed owner influence than others since, typically, strongly involved owners tend to have a certain template for features they tend to like in players. So, from that respect, it didn't surprise me -- save for the fact that Oakland passed on Michael Crabtree to take DHB.
As for Tyson Jackson going third overall, it was remarkable to see what happened the day before the draft. ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper, Jr. (who I respect immensely) abruptly made a major change on his draft board on the eve of the draft, elevating Jackson from the #10-12 range up to Kansas City at #3. The reaction across the major draft websites was pronounced, with many sites following Kiper's lead and moving Jackson up to #3. In hindsight it appears very likely that Kiper had strong information about Jackson going in that spot. All I know is that, if Kiper abruptly moves someone up his board into the top five on the day before the 2010 Draft, I won't be shy about hopping on that bandwagon.
It surprised me that the Redskins didn't do more to boost their offensive line, though they can probably get away with that for another year. This article on the official Redskins website reveals that the team hopes to develop some of its younger offensive line talent this year. And, if that doesn't work out as hoped, there are some strong offensive tackle prospects likely to be in the mix in next year's draft.
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