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Draft King Analysis

January 3, 2010
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com

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The Rams face an interesting decision with the #1 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft: take a franchise quarterback (such as Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen or Oklahoma's Sam Bradford) or pounce on one of the most high-profile defensive tackles to come along in some time: Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh. Some fans in St. Louis today actually brought signs to the Edward Jones Dome to show their support of the team selecting Suh.

Ndamukong Suh
Ndamukong Suh could be the #1 pick in the 2010 Draft. (Icon SMI)

At this point I still think that going with a quarterback makes the most sense for St. Louis. The team has wisely focused on defense in the past few drafts, including selecting DE Chris Long at #2 overall in 2008, DT Adam Carriker at #13 overall in 2007, and Clemson CB Tye Hill at #15 in 2006. Even last year, where the team used the #2 overall pick on Baylor OT Jason Smith, they used their high second-round pick (#35 overall) in 2009 on Ohio State ILB James Laurinaitis.

This is not to say that the Rams for sure wouldn't take Suh at #1. Some have already (and I'd suggest prematurely) labeled Carriker as a bust, though a shoulder injury kept him off the field in 2009. Plus, the Rams used a high fourth round pick in 2009 on Clemson DT Dorell Scott, and I imagine that the team will look to work him into the mix more in 2010.

Even with the young players on board, adding Suh to the DT mix wouldn't hurt the Rams. If the Rams like the quarterback prospects that they feel will be on the board when they pick in the second round (or later), they could forego taking a quarterback in the top spot. Plus, at least in theory, the Rams would likely end up forking over less guaranteed money for Suh than they would for a quarterback.

On the flip side, barring something unexpected happening, 2010 will be an uncapped season, with nothing for sure for 2011 and beyond. And while the Rams might not have to go see the special man to get the cash needed to pay their top pick, there could be financial reasons why the Rams might be inclined to go QB over Suh at #1 overall due to how much money the team has already invested on its defensive line.

A few other things from today:

-The top five order for the draft appears to be:

1. St. Louis Rams
2. Detroit Lions
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Washington Redskins
5. Kansas City Chiefs

The NFL will release the "official" list tomorrow, but from all indications that will be the top five. If the Rams opt to draft Suh at #1 overall, there is a good chance that the Redskins could have their pick of the litter from the quarterback crop, particularly considering that Detroit and Tampa Bay used first round picks on quarterbacks last year.

-Congratulations to Titans RB Chris Johnson for breaking the 2,000 rushing yard mark. Everyone in Seattle knew that Tennessee was going to try to get him the record (in an otherwise meaningless game), and the Seahawks tried like hell to keep him contained, but he managed to break the threshold. 2,000+ yards rushing and 500+ yards receiving in one season... wow.

-Not to be overlooked is Kansas City Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles cracking the 1,000 yard rushing mark. Charles left Texas early (a rarity as Mack Brown manages to keep almost everyone in Austin for the duration of their college eligibility) and had to bide his time behind Larry Johnson, but he has looked great in a primary role and should be primed for a strong 2010 season.

-The whole controversy over teams resting players doesn't seem to be going away. It happens nearly every season, but particularly when the 14-0 Colts benched Peyton Manning despite having a second-half lead against the Jets last week, it drew an inordinate amount of attention to the issue. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell says that the league "will consider offering incentives" to discourage teams locked into a playoff slot from resting their starters. Good luck to him on that.


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