Evaluating Jake Locker as an NFL prospect
National Football League
Draft King Analysis
October 17, 2010
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
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The process of crafting a mock draft involves constant evaluation and re-evaluation of players. Particularly during the season, new information comes in on a weekly basis in the form of statistics. There is a wealth of tangible and intangible data that is available, and for sure I read as many different mock drafts as I can to gather the opinions and projections of everyone from the TV guys (Mel Kiper, Mike Mayock, Todd McShay, etc.) to websites, both media outlet related and independent.
Within that, it's been interesting to follow the rise and fall of University of Washington QB Jake Locker -- and his recent ascent back up the draft ladder in many circles. It's my opinion that the Nebraska game exposed Locker as a quarterback who is not of a sure-fire first round caliber. In that game Locker went 4-20 for 71 yards, one passing TD and two interceptions. He also ran 11 times for 59 yards and another TD in the game, a 56-21 demolishing of the Huskies by Nebraska.
I don't dispute that Locker is a great athlete. He runs a reported 4.39 40, which is very impressive for a player who is 6'3" and 230 pounds. But, against an elite college football pass defense in the form of Nebraska, Locker was exposed for not having the passing skills one would hope to see from an elite QB prospect.
Following the Nebraska/Washington game, I wrote how I thought Locker's draft stock fell considerably after his unimpressive performance. I wasn't alone on that; other draft analysts made various downward adjustments on Locker following his performance. Even Kiper, who at one point projected Locker as a potential #1 overall pick for 2011, adjusted his assessment due to Locker's awful performance -- though Kiper has kept Locker as a top five overall projection.
As with anything, when the tide turns too far in one direction, there is backlash. Patrick Schuster of Football Dialogue e-mailed me on October 4 with this link to a mock he made with a very interesting assessment on Locker and the coverage of him:
30. Pittsburgh: Jake Locker QB Washington… I think the most popular sport among “draftniks” is to bang on Locker. While granted his season has been far from perfect something tells me Jake will prove those “experts” wrong who’ve turned on him and fly back up the charts. At this point this would be a colossal steal for the Steelers and drive home the point to Little Ben that he has zero margins for error.
My response to Patrick might not be what you would expect: I found common ground with him. As I said in my e-mail back to him, "[O]ur difference is separated probably more conceptually than in practical analysis, since him going to Pittsburgh at #30 wouldn't surprise me and I see him going anywhere from #30-40 at this point. He still has amazing speed. I just don't see Locker as a top ten guy anymore, let alone a #1 overall pick guy. But that is part of the fun of this time of the year and should be a great talking point."
Patrick's position came from a strong spot in that, on October 2, Locker lead Washington in a late rally on the road against USC, and his numbers looked great: 24/40 passing for 310 yards for 1 TD and zero interceptions. He also ran 12 times for 110 yards against Southern Cal. To be sure, it was an impressive performance. Moreover, Locker "would have completed more than 60 percent of his passes if not for several drops" according to the OC Register.
Locker built on that with his performance in the clutch against Oregon State on Saturday night. Many east coast football fans might have missed it, since it was an evening game taking place in the Pacific Time Zone, but Washington beat Oregon State 35-34 in double overtime. Locker threw three early TDs, then stalled out as the Beavers rallied to even the game at 21. Washington had one late drive which they played carefully, despite the (very annoying) second-guessing on color commentary by former Oregon coach Mike Bellotti.
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Jake Locker attempted to avoid being tackled by USC CB Shareece Wright. (Icon SMI)
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The numbers against Oregon State were strong for Locker, 21/35 passing for 286 yards, 5 TDs, and only one interception, plus 12 carries for 60 yards. The TD level is inflated because of the game going to double overtime, but there is no question that Locker came through in the clutch. He is an excellent college quarterback.
As great as Locker has looked in the past few weeks, the Nebraska game gave a preview of how Locker might fare against a top level defense. His scrambling ability is a valuable asset, but the value on that is lower on the professional level where everyone is fast. What will be important for Locker is to demonstrate, particularly in individual workouts after the season, a capacity to be able to quickly read a defense, throw despite being under pressure, and maintain the accuracy that he has shown when facing less pressure against some of the non-elite college football defenses that have been on the slate for him in October.
It's hard to think of Locker being able to step in and start immediately in a Sam Bradford type of role. Locker has a good amount of potential, but where question marks remain is how long it will take for him to be able to adjust to the speed of the pro game. There is a period of adjustment for any quarterback going from college to the pros; even the great Peyton Manning threw more interceptions than touchdowns as a rookie.
The problem is that some guys never can fully make the adjustment, which in turn is why quarterback is the ultimate boom-or-bust position in the NFL. Because it is such a difficult thing to quantify, any clues that can be found hinting toward how a quarterback might be able to perform against elite, top-flight defenses can prove valuable. And, until Locker shows me, or more importantly NFL general managers and coaches, that he won't need considerable nurturing and training on how to handle complex, NFL caliber defenses, I am inclined to think that teams will be inclined to think of him as fitting more of a #30-40 range as opposed to the #5-15 range. But, as always, we shall see.
