Top candidates for the #1 pick in the 2011 NFL Draft
National Football League
Draft King Analysis
November 28, 2010
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.
We've reached an interesting point of the year in terms of football, both college and pro: the end of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, which means college fans looking forward to the "mixed-up mystery" of the BCS (to quote Ohio State president E. Gordon Gee in a phrase he likely will grow to regret having used) and NFL fans getting excited for the stretch run and the upcoming playoffs. As a fan of both college and pro football I enjoy this time of year, and not just because it means an uptick in traffic for Draft King. There is plenty to discuss, dissect, and contemplate. For tonight I'll concentrate on the NFL and possibilities for the top of the 2011 Draft board, since that is where the greatest interest usually tends to be.
-The Buffalo Bills were one Steve Johnson dropped TD pass in overtime away from beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh today and winning three in a row -- that after losing their first eight games out of the gate. What had seemed like a no-brainer just a few weeks ago, the idea that the Bills would have the top pick in the 2011 NFL Draft and take Stanford QB Andrew Luck (should he apply for early entry into the NFL), suddenly seems far less likely. At 2-9 the Bills will miss the playoffs for a tenth consecutive season barring something short of extraordinary happening. But the team is playing inspired ball on offense with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, and it seems entirely possible that even if the Bills have the chance to draft Luck, they might not do it. Fitzpatrick is playing that well. Seriously.
 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick has played some gutsy ball for Buffalo. (Icon SMI)
|
|
I realize that Fitzpatrick looks like a goat with his winter beard in full effect, but the journeyman out of Harvard received an opportunity when Trent Edwards went from starter-to-unemployed in Buffalo and has made the most out of it. He isn't the next coming of Peyton Manning, but he has played some gutsy ball for a team that isn't exactly loaded with talent.
-Right now the 1-10 Carolina Panthers appear to have the best shot at landing the top pick in the 2011 NFL Draft, and I've heard plenty of speculation that they would take Luck if he goes pro. With their QB problems this season, I could understand that to a degree. But remember that Carolina used a second-round pick on Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen this past April, and while he hasn't exactly lit up the competition (1 TD and 5 interceptions through today's loss at Cleveland), he is just 22 years old and on a team that has faced a slew of injuries.
Moreover, the Panthers desperately need to add a top-flight defensive end to the mix; the loss of Julius Peppers to Chicago has been evident all season long. To point, through their first 11 games the Panthers have made just 18 sacks while giving up 33. That's not good. Wide receiver is a possibility for them as well, but they used their third round pick in April on LSU wideout Brandon LaFell. Also, Steve Smith is under contract through 2012, albeit for $7 million for 2011 and $7.75 million for 2012.
My take: if Carolina ends up with the top pick, they'll draft either Georgia WR A.J. Green (presuming he turns pro, and he should after being suspended for four games for selling the jersey he wore in the 2009 Independence Bowl for $1,000) or a defensive end. There will be a few choices for the Panthers at DE, and whomever replaces current head coach John Fox (whose contract expires at the end of the season) could end up dictating the direction taken. Fox is not the GM there; that title belongs to Marty Hurney, but it might take a coach/GM dual offering to lure a top-notch candidate to the team, which could leave Hurney on the outside looking in after the season.
Bringing in Bill Cowher makes a great deal of sense with him owning a home in nearby Raleigh, but that will depend on his happiness working out of New York City for CBS Sports relative to an opportunity to return to NFL coaching and possibly being both the head coach and the GM for a team. Cowher lost his wife to cancer in June of this year, and there are many factors that will play into any decision he makes regarding a return to coaching, more than can be succinctly listed here.
If Cowher does come to Carolina, the Panthers could very well shift to a 3-4 defense, which obviously would impact the type of defensive end that the Panthers would target. Alabama DE Marcell Dareus (if he turns pro) is the top 3-4 prospect. In the team's present 4-3 setup, a prospect like Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers could be very tempting, though Bowers going #1 overall is scary in some ways since he had a slow start to his college career after being a top prospect coming out of high school. Robert Quinn from North Carolina may also receive consideration, though he has missed all of 2010 due to being tied in with the John Blake/Gary Wichard scandal.
-Detroit is 2-9, but they seem one year away from repairing the bulk of the damage caused by the Matt Millen era (2001-2008) where the Lions used just one first-round pick on defense, OLB Ernie Sims, who now plays for the Eagles. QB Matthew Stafford and RB Jahvid Best being injured has slowed their timetable for improvement. The Lions should have a chance to take either LSU CB Patrick Peterson (if he turns pro) or Nebraska CB Prince Amukamara, one of the few top ten prospects who is in the final year of his college eligibility.
Martin Mayhew has slowly but surely rebuilt the Lions via the draft and with some dabbling in free agency. His first major move after Millen resigned in disgrace during the infamous 0-16 season was to trade WR Roy Williams, who was slated to be an unrestricted free agent, to Dallas for first-and-third round picks in the 2009 Draft. He absolutely fleeced Jerry Jones on that one. Mayhew doesn't receive anywhere near the positive attention that he deserves.
An aside: who is Matt Millen's agent? Amazingly I couldn't find that information in a brief Google search. He must have the best agent in sports TV for him being able to land color commentary gigs with the NFL Network for Thursday Night games and ESPN for Saturday college football along with on location anchoring gigs for Monday Night Football. It's very tough for me to take anything he says seriously, and I know I'm not alone in feeling that way.
-With the Cincinnati Bengals at 2-9, it seems that head coach Marvin Lewis won't be back in 2011. Unlikely as it might seem even at this point, it's entirely possible that Cincinnati could end up with the first pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. It's possible that the Bengals could take a shot at Luck in that spot, though Cincinnati is heavily invested in QB Carson Palmer and likely would not want to pay big money to Palmer ($11.5 million per year for 2011 and 2012, $13 million for 2013, and $14 million for 2014) and #1 overall pick type cash to Luck.
Cincy could also part ways with Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens and start fresh by drafting A.J. Green in the top spot. Defense is also a viable possibility, though the team has a strong DE in Antwan Odom (when he's not injured and/or suspended) and drafted Florida DE Carlos Dunlap in the second round of the 2010 Draft.
