Draftniks

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Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.

Does anyone know where the term "draftnik" originated from? I know it goes back to at least 1992, but I'm curious who coined it and when. I presume it is a derivation from the term beatnik. The first time I recall hearing the word draftnik was while doing a newspaper phoner interview in 2005 when the reporter I was speaking with asked me if I was offended by the term.

Debate about Tim Tebow, at times, has been spirited. (Icon SMI)

I ask because of what I read in a column by Dan Shanoff about Tim Tebow and mock drafts late last month. It's an interesting read (Shanoff is a talented writer) but in the piece Shanoff takes a number of not-so-veiled shots at people who create mock drafts. He refers to this group of people as the "draftnik-industrial complex", and he claims that this group has worked to "entrench itself as the experts in the NFL Draft". It's not the most flattering write-up I've ever seen.

But Shanoff raises an important point that needs to be addressed: the issue of opinion versus reality for so-called draftniks. My goal with this site has been to, as much as possible, post what I believe will happen as opposed to projecting what I believe should happen. My opinion of what should happen is immaterial; I don't have any picks in the draft. What's more, from what I've seen from the mock draft world, almost all involved are doing their best to put forth their most accurate projections.

Last year I projected Darrius Heyward-Bey going to the Raiders at #7, and sure enough that's where he went. I didn't personally consider DHB to be a first-round talent (just too raw though amazingly athletic and at times spectacular), but I know that Al Davis likes a certain type of player and it turned out I was right about anticipating his analysis of Heyward-Bey. Had Heyward-Bey not gone to Oakland, he could have easily fallen entirely out of the first round.

As for Tebow, I've had him as a first-round prospect but he will be disappearing from the list when I next update my 2010 mock. He'll have his shot to be an NFL quarterback, but at this point I don't anticipate he will do so as a first-round selection. Tebow had a tremendous career at Florida and will be remembered as one of the all-time great college players, but that does not guarantee Tebow being drafted in round one.

From: Shawn Watters
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Sun, Jan 17, 2010 at 5:23 PM
Subject: Mock

I did my first mock about a week ago and just saw your latest. Our drafts are identical up until my Browns pick. I love McClain, but our need at CB is far and above any other defensive need. I have CB Joe Haden coming to Cleveland at #7. Then I have us moving back into the first round with our 2nd and a 3rd to get Brandon Spikes. What are your thoughts on my idea?

Lou: It's true that the stock on Joe Haden has been on the rise, to the point where he has separated himself from the pack and is most likely going to be the first cornerback drafted in the 2010 NFL Draft.

Would Cleveland take him at #4? It's possible. The stat-line for him from 2009 wasn't overwhelming: four interceptions, 10 pass breakups, two forced fumbles, three sacks, 68 tackles, and five tackles for a loss. But opposing offenses often went out of their way to throw in the direction opposite of Haden, and he is an athletic playmaker. At 5'11" 190 he doesn't have crazy height for the position, but he has showed a capacity for shutting down top-shelf wide receivers, including Julio Jones. His 40 time will be interesting to see; I've seen it estimated at 4.45, but with or without an edge in that department, Haden is a proven playmaker.

It would be higher-than-expected on some level for Cleveland to take McClain at #4, and that is a rather high spot for a 3-4 ILB to go. But McClain is a great playmaker, and him ending up as a member of the Cleveland Browns could very well end up happening.

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