A look at the top QB prospects for the 2011 Draft

National Football League
Draft King Analysis

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In 1998 the Indianapolis Colts drafted Tennessee QB Peyton Manning #1 overall, opting for him over Washington State QB Ryan Leaf. San Diego selected Leaf with the #2 pick in the draft, and sadly for Chargers fans, he turned into a colossal bust. Meaning, Manning has won one Super Bowl, played in another, and set all kinds of single game, season, and career records... and he is still performing at top form.

Peyton Manning is a 10-time Pro Bowl selection. (Icon SMI)

This is certainly the ultimate contrast for how the QB position can be a boom-or-bust spot, even for the elite players out there. But 1998 was more than just Manning vs. Leaf -- it also marked the start of a trend for quarterbacks going in the top spot in the draft.

Since then, only three non-quarterbacks have gone #1 overall: Penn State DE Courtney Brown to Cleveland in 2000, NC State DE Mario Williams in 2006 to Houston, and Michigan OT Jake Long in 2008 to Miami. Of the three, only Long went to a team that hadn't used a previous #1 overall pick in the draft on a QB within the past four years (Tim Couch #1 overall to Cleveland in 1999 and David Carr #1 overall to Houston in 2002).

In short, the chance to land a franchise quarterback generally proves to be too tempting for teams in that top spot to pass up. Usually there is a correlation between a team holding the top pick in the draft and the team's quarterback play in the previous season, enough so to make drafting the top QB prospect a worthwhile risk.

I describe it as a risk because, to be sure, there is tremendous risk inherent to taking a QB at #1 overall. The guaranteed money that the player receives is strong by NFL standards and has been accelerating considerably over the past several years. Perhaps the strongest example of this comes from Oakland drafting LSU QB JaMarcus Russell #1 overall in 2007. As part of his rookie contract he received a staggering $31 million guaranteed money signing bonus.

Now Russell is gone from Oakland, though his rapid departure was likely assisted by the fact that cutting him this off-season didn't have the signing bonus acceleration punch to the current year's salary cap because 2010 is an uncapped year in the NFL due to this being the final year of the Collective Bargaining Agreement between players and owners.

Looking ahead to 2011, there are some quarterbacks who have already begun to separate themselves from the pack, and there is a decent chance that one of the players listed below will end up as the top pick in next year's NFL Draft. The candidates:

Jack Locker, QB, Washington: Locker has the physical skills that you'd like to see in a top prospect: 6'3", 225 pounds, and in possession of a rocket arm. He isn't a runaway contender for the top spot, though. Locker needs to prove that he has improved his accuracy during the off-season; in 2009 he was 21/11 on TD/INT. Moreover, he was sacked 28 times last year, raising some questions about his internal clock as it relates to the pass rush. Locker will need to build on his completion percentage of 58.2% in 2010.

	Ryan Mallett is tall even by NFL quarterback standards. (Icon SMI)

Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas *: The Michigan transfer won't have much trouble seeing over the line (or having passes tipped) in the NFL, as he stands 6'7" 240. He has a cannon arm and posted an impressive 30 TDs to just 7 picks in 2009. He took 24 sacks last year, a number he'll need to reduce in 2010. Mallett has the option of returning to Arkansas for the 2011 season, though his decision on that could hinge on how well he performs against SEC competition this fall.

Andrew Luck, Stanford *: Luck is entering his redshirt sophomore season, and while Mel Kiper is bullish on him as a prospect, it would surprise me to see Luck leave for the NFL after 2010. At 6'4" 235 he has prototype QB size/weight, and he has the feel of a quarterback who could thrive in the proper pro system, at least as much as a player can have that feel after just one year of college quarterbacking. Luck was sacked only 6 times in 2009, and his 13/4 TD-to-INT ratio is even more impressive when you consider that he never threw more than one pick in any game... and that was as a redshirt freshman. The sky is the limit for him, though he really could use a 2011 redshirt junior season to properly prepare him for transition to the NFL.

And, yes, I know that Luck doesn't appear in the initial 2011 mock that's up here. I just don't think that Luck will turn pro after the season, though that does run counter to the philosophy of this site to presume that every eligible player (3 or more years removed from his high school class' graduation) will declare from the draft and then project from there. Luck will probably show up in my first update to that mock, though I still suspect he'll return to Stanford in 2011.

Christian Ponder, Florida State: Perhaps the most accurate of any passers on this list, the 6'2" 220 pound Ponder had an impressive completion percentage of 68.8% in 2009 and threw just 7 picks against 14 touchdown passes last year. He will need to prove that he has recovered from a separated right (throwing) shoulder that he sustained while making a tackle on an interception he threw against Clemson, one of four he threw in that game. If Ponder can maintain his accuracy in 2010, and moreover if he can show that he can keep his cool under adversity, he has every opportunity to be a first-round pick.

Blaine Gabbert, Missouri *: Though Gabbert is entering his true junior season, he only played sparingly in 2008 behind Chase Daniel and Chase Patton, so he has just one year as a starter under his belt. But, from what he has shown, he has potential to be a first-round pick in either 2011 or 2012. At 6'5" 240 there will be no questioning if Gabbert is tall enough to play the position in the NFL, and he will look to build in 2010 on a 24 TD/9 INT sophomore season where he threw picks in only three games and was interception-free in the final four games of the regular season. Gabbert may be better served to return to Missouri in 2011, but with a breakout year he has potential to make the leap to the NFL.

One other senior QB prospect worth watching is Texas A&M's Jerrod Johnson. He posted some outstanding numbers in 2009, including 3,500+ passing yards. Johnson is 6'5" 240, but he also has taken a whopping 57 sacks over the past two seasons. To be sure, he will need to show vastly improved mobility to move ahead of some of the other impact players in the QB mix. But Johnson lead the Big XII with 30 TD passes last season, and if he can crack the 60% completion percentage mark (which he just missed in each of the past two seasons), he could catch the eye of pro GMs and scouts.

Finally, true junior John Brantley will finally have his chance to run the show at Florida this season. He waited patiently behind Tim Tebow, and it's too soon to know how Brantley will handle quarterbacking on a regular basis in the SEC. But he has the size (6'3" 220) you want in a QB prospect, and the fact that he didn't throw a single interception last year in six games of action reflects well for his chances to develop into an elite QB prospect.

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