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Draft King Analysis

September 30, 2010
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com

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Today's latest update to the Draft King 2011 NFL Mock Draft didn't have too many changes, but perhaps most noteworthy is changing the #1 pick projection for a third straight week, with Ryan Mallett sliding down to Cleveland at #3 and Andrew Luck jumping into the top position. Luck doesn't have Mallett's great touch on intermediate and long passes, which has improved for Mallett this year compared with the past. But Luck has better footwork, arguably a better football IQ (especially on looking off defenders), and in many circles has moved to the top of the quarterback prospect list for 2011.

As for Jake Locker, who I removed from the 2011 first round mock, he will need to show vast improvement for me to consider shifting him back into my first round mock. But his embarrassing 4-for-20 performance against Nebraska completely exposed him as being anything but an elite quarterback prospect. There are some GMs and scouts who think that Locker is still going to be a top ten selection, but I don't think so, not at this point at least.

Over the weekend a friend of mine who is an LSU fan gave me a long explanation on why he thinks that LSU CB Patrick Peterson will be a top five pick in the 2011 draft and, more improbably, a contender for the Heisman Trophy. Him going in the top five is possible but a bit of a long shot. But to contend for the Heisman? I don't think so.

Yes, Michigan CB/KR Charles Woodson won it in 1997 over Tennessee QB Peyton Manning, but that was an anomaly. Peterson has played very well for LSU so far this year, and the battle between Peterson and Nebraska CB Prince Amukamara for the top corner picked in the 2011 Draft will be interesting. But, barring something truly unexpected happening, I doubt that Peterson will be invited to the Heisman ceremony, let alone win the trophy. That's no knock on Peterson -- it's simply a reflection of reality.

Tonight I was lamenting to my girlfriend the unique challenges that NFL Draft prognosticators face this fall. There is a two-fold problem: first is the crackdown by the NCAA on some top-tier athletes for alleged rule violations, and second is gauging how the potential for an NFL lockout in 2011 could impact the decisions of the many highly ranked players who have remaining college eligibility beyond this season.

It fascinated me to learn that the NCAA crackdown has been lead by a relatively young group of professionals. This article by Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated earlier this month did a great job of spotlighting the quartet that comprises the NCAA's Agent, Gambling and Amateurism Activities division. All four are either my age (33) or younger: director Rachel Newman-Baker (33), associate director Angie Cretors (33), and assistant directors Marcus Wilson (29) and Chance Miller (27).

Youth can often be perceived as a disadvantage in the business world, where experience and connections, both of which typically improve over time, are both valued. But with youth also comes positive attributes, not the least of which is possessing the energy required to fly cross-country at an almost break-neck pace. That is what is required for the four-person AGA division to be able to function, chasing leads and whispers and ghosts and rumors and receipts. Mandel did a better job of explaining the situation than I could do in paraphrasing it here, so just read the article and find out for yourself how it has played out.

Nick Saban
A.J. Green had to sit out the first four games of Georgia's 2010 football season. (Icon SMI)

North Carolina has faced the worst of the investigations involving current players, and they have been without several key standouts indefinitely while the NCAA investigates any possible infractions there. But the ripple effects have been felt, particularly at Georgia where phenom wide receiver A.J. Green was sidelined for four games for allegedly selling the jersey he wore in last year's Independence Bowl for $1,000. With the NCAA's penchant for punishing schools for past infractions by rewriting history (look at what happened to Michigan's basketball program as an example), schools are afraid of playing athletes who might potentially be ineligible.

For players with potential first-round talent who are on the fence about going back to school for another year, the fear of the long arm of the NCAA law might be enough to influence them to head for the pro level. North Carolina DT Marvin Austin was a likely late first or early second round pick for the 2010 NFL Draft who opted to return to school this fall, with the hope that he could develop his craft and be a potential top ten pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. But Austin hasn't been able to play a single snap this fall for the Tar Heels, and he might never play college ball again.

On the flip side of the wrath of the AGA is the possibility that the NFL will face a work stoppage in 2011. The present collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and the NFLPA expires before next season begins, and there has been little advancement between the owners and the players on agreeing to a new one. It's expected that the NFL will lock out the players before the 2011 season, which has lead to certain teams holding votes amongst themselves to decertify the NFLPA as a union, which would prevent a lockout but open a Pandora's Box of legal headaches for all involved.

There's a fine line to leaving early for the NFL. The perfect example is Ole Miss QB Jevan Snead, who would have likely been picked within the top three rounds of the 2009 NFL Draft. He returned to Ole Miss for his redshirt junior year last fall, but unfortunately for him his gameplay seemed to regress compared with his 2008 output. Instead of returning for his redshirt senior season in 2010, Snead applied for early entry into the draft and ended up not being selected at all. It's often a high stakes guessing game with this process.

As I've written many times on here, there will be a 2011 NFL Draft no matter what happens. But plenty of uncertainty surrounds the details surrounding that, from the possibility of a restructure of the rookie pay scale to what will happen to the rookies if there is no new CBA in place by mid-summer. So imagine what someone like Green has to determine: a return to Georgia for a senior season where he knows there will be games played but where he won't be compensated for playing beyond his scholarship, all while remaining under the AGA microscope, or the chance that he could jump to the NFL only to find himself in the midst of a legal quagmire.

It's tough enough to project what players will or won't do as far as leaving for the NFL, which is why I made the decision rather early on here on Draft King to presume that all players who could go pro will until they are locked in to return to college for the following year. But how do you evaluate a player like Green who missed four games for suspension, or more importantly guys like Marvin Austin and Robert Quinn who might not play a single snap of football in 2010? It's a unique challenge in a draft cycle that is already loaded with unusual circumstances.


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