Thought process, explained
Draft King Analysis
March 29, 2019
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com
Reader feedback is always welcomed here on Draft King. Sound off with your thoughts on Twitter (@LouPickney) or via email at LouPickney@gmail.com.
Here is some insight into the thought proicess the most recent 2019 NFL Mock Draft.
Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray to Arizona at #1 is all but a lock at this point. The bigger question at this point: where will 2019 #10 overall pick QB Josh Rosen be traded? If the Giants land Rosen, that would free up the team to look for a top-flight EDGE rusher at #6.
As I noted in the mock, the 49ers gave up a 2020 second-round selection to obtain EDGE Dee Ford from Kansas City, then signed Ford to a lucrative new contract. They made a considerable investment.
With that in mind, it seems likely at this point that the 49ers are going to target Alabama DT Quinnen Williams, who is exceptionally skilled at pass rushing from an interior DL spot. Ford + Q = pass rush upgrade both inside and out.
It's also possible that the 49ers could trade back, though I've not sensed any rumblings to that end. That might change if/when the Cardinals trade Rosen.
In a related note, New England landing Rosen would be something. Rosen and Arizona's 2020 3rd-round pick to New England for the 2019 #32 overall pick, who says no?
And if the Giants move up to #3 overall, what if it isn't to pick Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins but instead to get Ohio State EDGE Nick Bosa? The hot-and-cold signals out of the Giants with Haskins have been interesting.
Oakland with its three first-round picks (and the #35 overall selection near the top of round two as well) have all sorts of options. At #4 I have them going with Kentucky EDGE Josh Allen, and this should be a great spot to land a top-flight EDGE rusher if they are so inclined.
But I could also see Oakland going for Ohio State QB Dwayne Haskins here, or perhaps trading up to #1 to get Murray. But the latter seems highly unlikely to happen.
For the Buccaneers at #5, I have Tampa Bay targeting Mississippi State EDGE Montez Sweat. But there are so many possibilities for this spot, with the Bucs being a likely target for teams looking to trade up. They could go with Michigan DL Rashan Gary as well, or possibly Houston DT Ed Oliver.
There are some who think Tampa Bay might look corner here, possibly LSU CB Greedy Williams, but that would qualify as a surprise to me. Some evaluators see Greedy as a late-first prospect, which is closer to where I anticipate him coming off the board.
Connecting Haskins to the Giants at #6 isn't necessarily an indication that I think he will fall that far. More likely that the Giants would need to trade up to get Haskins, if they're interested..
Jacksonville at #7 would seem like a logical match with Florida OT Jawaan Taylor. Nick Foles filled their need at quarterback, and providing him with sufficient protection will be important.
Likewise, Detroit at #8 with LSU LB Devin White seems like a good fit of need and draft position. White is the exception to the rule as far as not being an elite pass-rusher, but he has remarkable skill and should be able to really boost the Lions' linebacker group.
Buffalo at #9 feels like a good fit for a big defensive pass rusher. For now I have Michigan DL Rashan Gary slotted there, but he could be off the board well before this point.
Missouri QB Drew Lock to Denver at #10 seems like a strong possibility. But the Broncos know of the potential risk with teams behind them who might be looking to trade up to fill their own QB needs.
At #11, Cincinnati might be considering Lock, if not Haskins or Duke QB Daniel Jones. For now I have Michigan LB Devin Bush slotted there, which feels high, but the Bengals would seem to be in a good spot to trade back.
I've had Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson going to the Packers at #12 for awhile now, and others seem to concur. It makes sense relative to the Packers' needs. And I also see Green Bay at #30 as a potential stopper for Ohio State WR Parris Campbell, who ran a 4.31 40 at the NFL Combine.
And those two projections aren't mutually exclusive. Give Aaron Rodgers some new weapons on offense and see what happens in Green Bay.
Time will tell what the Miami Dolphins have planned at quarterback, but they aren't in the Josh Rosen sweepstakes (and reportedly had no interest). Ryan Fitzpatrick has them covered for now, but Fitzpatrick turns 37 later this year.
For now I have Duke QB Daniel Jones penciled in there for Miami at #13, though I have my reservations about Jones' accuracy. But he certainly looks the part.
Houston DT Ed Oliver is one of my favorite players in the draft. And while I had thought Atlanta franchising DT Grady Jarrett would preclude them from looking at an interior DL at #14, the prevailing opinion seems to be that they still would. That's especially true if Oliver is on the board, though Clemson DT Christian Wilkins could also be a consideration.
EDGE rushers are a need for both the Redskins at #15 and the Panthers at #16, and I have Florida State's Brian Burns and Clemson's Clelin Ferrell going off the board back-to-back.
Ole Miss WR D.K. Metcalf to the Giants at #17 would certainly make things more interesting for the Giants offense. You would imagine the Giants would address its EDGE rusher need at either at #6 or #17, but if there is a run on pass rushers ahead of #17, it could open the door for the freakishly athletic Metcalf to be selected.
Minnesota at #18 going offensive line seems possible, particularly if Alabama OL Jonah Williams is still on the board. Clemson DT Christian Wilkins still being on the board for the Titans at #19 would be a slight surprise, but also a good fit with Tennessee's front seven.
You would think the Steelers at #20, with their pick of the entire class of defensive backs, would be in a good position to upgrade there. I have Washington CB Byron Murphy going there, but there are several possibilities among the top corners.
Delaware safety Nasir Adderley isn't necessarily as well-known as the names projected in the top 20, but Adderly has remarkable coverage range and would fill a need for Seattle at #21. Ole Miss WR AJ Brown to the Ravens at #22 seems to make sense, perhaps not a super high-ceiling prospect, but one that should be able to produce right away.
Washington State OT Andre Dillard is a remarkable pass blocker, and I could see him being a viable option for the Texans at #23. The Texans signed former Panthers OT Matt Kalil to a one-year deal earlier this month, but that's okay as Dillard will likely thrive best in a system that allows him to refine his skills (and his run-blocking) before he is thrust into the starting lineup.
Oakland at #24 and #27 is really tough to navigate. I plugged in Alabama RB Josh Jacobs at #24, but perhaps the Eagles trading for Bears RB Jordan Howard would prompt the Raiders to be more willing to take a risk on Jacobs lasting until three spots later. I've got LSU CB Greedy Williams going to Oakland at #27 right now, though he could be long-gone by then.
Philadelphia could use some interior OL help and could be a good landing spot for Oklahoma OL Cody Ford at #25, who could play multiple positions for the Eagles offensive line. And the Colts at #26 seem like a perfect fit for another Oklahoma offensive player: WR Marquise Brown. He is a very talented slot receiver, not the right fit for every team, but Brown with the Colts makes sense.
For now I have Clemson DT Dexter Lawrence slotted to the Chargers at #28, and at 342 pounds he would certainly help to clog the middle. I nearly faded him from round one, particularly when you factor in the osterine questions and that he's not a major pass rush threat. But, at least for now, Lawrence stays here.
At one point Deandre Baker looked like a possible top ten pick, but this scenario has him sliding to Kansas City at #29. The Chiefs need help in their secondary, and Baker seems to be a likely target if he's still on the board.
The Rams landing Mississippi State DL Jeffery Simmons at #31 would be very interesting. Simmons suffered a torn ACL in his left knee while training ahead of the draft, but he was so consistently dominant as a disruptive interior rush threat that Simmons could still end up hearing his name called on night one in Nashville.
Projecting a tight end to New England at #32 was obvious with the retirement of star TE Rob Gronkowski. Trying to predict what the Patriots are going to do is usually an exercise in futility, but Alabama's Irv Smith Jr. seems as likely as anyone to round out the first round.
