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Draft King Analysis

January 22, 2008
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com

Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.


From: Josh Obergfell
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 18, 2008 4:02 PM
Subject: (no subject)

Hey Lou hows it going i suppose it's going to start slowin down for you here in the next couple of weeks until FA Starts. hey i was readin around and i keep hearing these trade rumours about the Boys tradein one of there first round picks for Roy Williams or Larry Fitzgearld now i really don't see how that would be a problem i woud take either or for the later first round pick. and i've been thinkin about the mock Draft alittle and i think i want to change my pick with desean. let me try again on this mock draft buisness

#1 Aqib Talib or Reggie Smith
#2nd 1 Trade for Roy or Larry
#3 Speedy Back Charles, Chris johnson
something like that.

And another trade rumor was ferguson, carpentor, spears to the dolphins for some draft picks now i know bill was big on these guys so would bill give up picks for some of his old picks. thanks for all you do lou keep up the good work thanks

Lou: The Cowboys landing Roy Williams (the receiver) is not an impossibility, and there have been some rumblings out of Detroit that the Lions might want to unload him now, since he is slated for unrestricted free agency by voiding the final year of his contract. From my understanding, Williams should be able to do that without trouble.

There has been speculation online that Williams could be acquired for a second round pick, but for a player of his caliber, he could command a low first rounder like what Dallas has.

The situation involving him is similar to what Jonathan Vilma faces with the New York Jets. Dallas would likely require Williams to sign a contract extension (and a heavyweight salary) as part of any deal. And why would Williams agree to that when he could wait until 2009 and make more money on the open market? Him going to Dallas in '09 via free agency I could see, particularly if this upcoming season is Terrell Owens' final one with the Cowboys.


From: Sean Combrink
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 19, 2008 3:12 AM
Subject: Kansas City Chiefs

Hey Lou, love the site

In my opinion the chiefs most glaring need is their O-line, with a top corner prospect very close behind.

The chifes have almost no depth (all backups are 6th round choices or worse with less than a full season's experience) at any spot on the line with two VERY average starting tackles in Svitek and McIntosch.

At corner they have two very good, but very old corners that will soon need to be replaced. If not this year as their legs get tired.

Would it not make more sense for the chiefs to rather take the top corner in the draft and then try and cover the O-line, with their first day choices? Especially if taking the second best O-line talent (Jake Long will more than likely be taken) mean stretching?

Ty Law
Ty Law turns 34 next month. (Icon SMI)
From what I understand there should be very good talent on the O-line in the early part of the second round, thus maybe even a trade up to have two early second round pics or even a late first round pic to go with the (most likely) 5th pic make sense?

Lou: The Chiefs opted to patch their holes at corner with veteran CBs Ty Law and Patrick Surtain, which eventually will cause them major problems if they don't build depth. But the Chiefs were 5th against the pass last year, so they have it handled at least for now.

However, the Chiefs were dead last in rushing in 2007, so I would think that there would be a stronger need for the team at offensive tackle (since they can't reasonably go RB in the top five with Larry Johnson on the roster, unless Darren McFadden somehow falls to them.)

Moreover, even if they were inclined to draft a corner, the #4 or #5 spot would be a stretch for any of them. Trading down would make sense, but with a pick at either #4 or #5, the Chiefs are locked into that "top five" range where trading down is next to impossible due to the rookie salary cap. And if the Chiefs are going to stretch, I'd think they'd be much more inclined to do so for a guy like Ryan Clady than for a cornerback.

The ultimate factor may be that both coach Herm Edwards and GM Carl Peterson could be on the hot seat if they don't win in 2008, and a top-flight offensive tackle would likely be able to help the team win quicker than a corner. If it's even close with the decision, I'd think that would push the Chiefs over into the "offensive tackle" column.


From: Kevin Olson
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 21, 2008 8:46 AM
Subject: Viking.

Lou, you’re site is second to done. With that said, I have to respectfully disagree with you with regard to the Vikings. Chillress is a solid coach who believes strongly that he can coach any player at any position. Therefore he will not go after a big name QB with a high price tag when he feels that Jackson can manage a game and they can complete (I personally disagree with that thought). I would be floored if the Vikings gave up a first and third for either McNabb or Alexander. They will draft a DE first, WR second, and secondary with their two third round pick. Keep up the great work.

Lou: I read this and wondered if I'm second to done or second to none?

I'm not sure who Alexander is (Shaun Alexander?); I presume you mean Derek Anderson. It's possible that Minnesota will opt to take another path instead of giving up their first-and-third round picks for 2008 for a QB. I imagine that Donovan McNabb would not take that much to land from Philly, and it's too soon to know if Anderson will sign a long-term extension from Cleveland or if the Browns will risk losing him to restricted free agency via an unmatchable poison pill.

There has been talk that Minnesota might look to land a defensive end in round one, though the team already has a large amount of money invested in that position in Kenechi Udeze (two years remaining under contract) and Erasmus James (four years remaining under contract.) To be fair, James suffered a torn ACL and had surgery last month to repair it, and it remains to be seen on how he recovers. But if a QB isn't acquired via free agency before the draft, and if Andre Woodson is on the board, it would seem quite possible that the Vikings would give great consideration to taking Woodson in that spot.


From: Thomas J Peterson
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 21, 2008 11:49 AM
Subject: 2008 draft

To think the Steelers will pick anything but an offensive lineman is a mistake. They need a center, a new left guard and a right tackle so why waste a pick on a RB when they have very capable guys to backup Parker.


From: Rick Prestage
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 22, 2008 5:33 AM
Subject: Jan 20 Mock Draft

Your recent mock makes interesting reading. As I read through and arrived at the spot where my team picks, The Steelers, I found that idea of a RB interesting. However, I must disagree. The Steelers do need RB depth, however that will come in later rounds, They have a pressing need along the OL and frankly If Otah from Pitt is available that is where he will go. He translates into a right tackle or guard. I beleive in Round 2 the steelers will select a RB, Mike Hart of Michigan if he is available.

Lou: I decided to answer two e-mails at once, since they both address the same topic. Certainly there will be multiple spots on the offensive line for Pittsburgh to fill, and the draft may prove to be the best spot to do that. Particular where the Steelers are drafting, there should be multiple options for the team at the offensive line spot, particularly tackle, though USC OT Sam Baker could move to guard in the NFL a la Shawn Andrews with Philadelphia.

Longtime OG Alan Faneca is a lock to be elsewhere as soon as free agency hits, and OT Max Starks is likely gone as well. With Sean Mahan at center, I would be surprised to see Pittsburgh target that position beyond perhaps landing a guy who can play center and guard late in the draft.

With so many great running backs in this draft, there will be some teams that will opt to wait until the second (or third) round to fill needs at the position. At the same time, there will also be teams that don't have an obvious or pressing need at RB who will make a "surprising" RB pick. It happens in every draft, but this year it might happen even more than normal.

Is that to say that the Steelers will be one of those teams? Not necessarily. But it will happen in at least some surprising scenarios, and Pittsburgh could be in the mix on it, particularly if they don't feel that any of the players on the board. They are most likely going to take an offensive lineman on day one, but that doesn't mean that they are a lock to do that in *round* one.


From: Robert Sawicki
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 21, 2008 2:58 PM
Subject: Making sense of the Detroit Lions

Rob here writting you from Detroit. I love your site Lou, I check it almost everydayday for the past 3 years. Call me crazy but I love the Lions and I just hope we can get 3 solid starters out of this years draft, since it is one of the deepest drafts in recent years. I feel our biggest needs in order are, Corner Back, Offensive Tackle and Middle LineBacker. I agree we need to take a corner with the first pick but this kid Cromartie you have us taking i'm not to familiar with, all his measurables and numbers look great but what kind of a pro will he be since he is from a smaller school? If you had to compare him someone in the league who would it be? I really like Aqib Talib I hope we have a shot at him! If we do take a corner in round one, what ILB or OT do you think would be around in round two for us to take? In round two I would take Erin Henderson and line him up with Earnie Sims, what do you think? And in round three if Steve Slayton is around do you think it would be worth taking a chance on him?

Erin Henderson
Erin Henderson is a talented young linebacker. (Icon SMI)
Lou: Thanks for the frequent visits -- I'm glad that you've enjoyed the site. Luckily for the Lions, their defensive needs should be able to be filled via the draft. The #15 spot might be a bit high for a corner, particularly if Aqib Talib is off the board, but by trading down they could land additional picks. It's a weak draft at ILB with both James Laurinaitis and Rey Maualuga going back to college for 2008. Even Dan Connor, the top ILB in the draft, could end up as an OLB in the NFL. Jonathan Vilma would be a nice acquisition for Detroit if they could swing it, though as mentioned before, Vilma (like Roy Williams) could be tough to convince to sign a long-term extension after a trade.

Here's a thought: what if the Jets traded Jonathan Vilma to the Lions for Roy Williams? Add a pick on one side or the other to balance things out, but that could be a potential win-win situation. I'd be interested in hearing from Lions or Jets fans (or otherwise interested parties) on your thoughts on that.

As for Erin Henderson, he is young but very talented. If Vilma proves to be impossible to acquire, a player like Henderson could be a great pickup in round two. I watched a few Maryland games this year specifically to watch Henderson, and he didn't disappoint. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will have to prove himself against top talent, but he's a 6'2" CB with a reported sub 4.4 40 speed and good skills. But if DRC slips, there will be other corners from which to choose. Between DRC and Troy CB Leodis McKelvin, there could be two smaller-school corners going in the first round.

Alternately, Detroit could wait for a bargain corner in round two, perhaps a guy like USC CB Terrell Thomas who has slipped some but who still looks like a bona fide great NFL talent. Or, if they aren't too concerned about height, a guy like Boston College CB DeJuan Tribble could be considered as well.


From: Vic Span
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 21, 2008 4:16 PM
Subject: Green Bay Packers

The Packers have no depth behind Charles Woodson and Al Harris, who are both getting older, and Harris inparticular, really seems to be losing a step. Of the corners who might be available at the end of round one, which is best suited for the Packers physical style of man coverage?

If TE Fred Davis is available when the Packers pick at no. 30, do you see them taking him? How does he compare to Greg Olsen at this point? Keep up the good work!

Lou: There are a number of players the Packers could consider. Both Woodson and Harris are 6'1", but luckily for Green Bay, there are some top tier players who have the height to play in their system. Mike Jenkins and Aqib Talib will likely be gone when they pick. If Antoine Cason is on the board, he'd be a great pickup. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has the height, but it depends on if Green Bay feels that he'd fit their system.

If the Packers wait until round two, they might go for a guy like Wisconsin CB Jack Ikegwuonu or (if he really drops) Terrell Thomas. They should have all sorts of options and choices related to that, and it will be interesting to see how they play it.

I'd doubt that Green Bay would get into the Asante Samuel sweepstakes (they have avoided free agency for the most part under GM Ted Thompson), and it would seem most likely that the team would look at corners in the draft to fill their need.


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