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Draft King Analysis

January 29, 2008
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com

Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.


From: Robert Sawicki
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 22, 2008 4:05 PM
Subject: Detroit Lions possibly 1st Round Draft Pick

WHAT MATT MILLEN SHOULD DO:
I love your draft site, it's the best out there. I have acouple questions for you. In my opinion the Lions need to draft a middle linebacker and a corner with there 1st two picks. Which scenerio do you think is better; With there first round pick drafting a corner like Mike Jenkins, Aqib Talib or Cromartie(which ever one is still around @ #15) and then in the 2nd round taking Erin Henderson, Beau Bell, Xavier Adibi or Ali Highsmith.. Or does this scenerio sound better; Drafting a middle linebacker like Dan Connor or Keith Rivers with their 1st round pick and drafting a corner like Terrell Thomas, Leodis Mckelvin, DeJuan Tribble in the 2nd round. Then in the 3rd round we can take the best available Offensive Tackle. Me personally I would love for the Lions to be able to draft Aqib Talib in round one and then Erin Henderson in round two. Those two guys are play makers with speed and thats what we need.

WHAT I WOULD DO IF I WAS LIONS GM (I would have the marbles to try this):
If I ran the Lions I personnally would go after Marcus Trufant or Asnte Samuel then I would Go after Alan Faneca and maybe even see if I could get Jonathan Vilma(Do you think a third round pick would allow us to get Vilma?) If you could get any two of those guys then your whole draft would changes. Lets say we get Trufant and Faneca then I would draft Ryan Clady if he's still there and if not I would draft Calais Campbell in round 1 then in round 2 I would draft Erin Henderson. Now our offense would have top ten potential and our defense would be greatfully improved. If any how this could happen I would bet my last dollar that we would be playoff team. Our defensive front would be strong with Campbell and White on the outsides with Big Baby and Redding Inside. The the linebackers would be Sims and Bailey with Henderson in the middle and the secondary would be much improved with Trufant and Bryant at corners with a rotation of Bullocks, Alexander and Bullocks at safety. I hope Matt Millen reads this. Well Lou what do you think of all this?

Lou: Asante Samuel is going to command a massive amount of cash on the free agent market. Adding him and Marcus Trufant would be quite the coup, but it would put a major crunch on Detroit's cap space. That's not to say that Detroit won't be in the hunt for Samuel, but to land both would be both expensive -- particularly Samuel. He is going likely eclipse the 7 year, $93 million deal that Nate Clements received from San Francisco last year.

A bit of free agent dabbling by Detroit makes sense, and Hamlin would be a great addition, but with the #15 pick I could see the Lions landing a corner, since there should be a wide array of talent at that position still on the board at that point.

If the Lions can get Vilma for a third round pick, that would be interesting. Vilma has just one year left on his contract, and clearly it would make sense for Detroit to extend his deal. But if not, then perhaps the CB in round one and ILB in round two scenario makes the most sense.

Keep in mind that Matt Millen needs to produce a winner in 2008 to protect his job, so I'd look for the Lions to look for guys who can produce now. It might also make him more willing to put forth a huge signing bonus for a guy like Samuel. We'll see.


From: Sandy Faulkner
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 23, 2008 11:15 AM
Subject: 2008 Mock Draft

Very interesting thoughts and selections on the draft. I don't believe that Parcells will draft Dorsey as he is a great DT but not a NT, just see Chris Long making far more sense especially for Parcells.

Jonathan Stewart
Chris Long may have visions of being the #1 overall pick in his head. (Icon SMI)

Dallas will go RB and CB in the 1st round and could see them move up if McFadden falls to 7th although I am not sure that would be a wise move. Dallas just will not draft a OT in the 1st regardless of need and I believe Doug Free is equal to any of the LT coming out. As to WR, yes they could use one but CB is a far more pressing need and better value in the 1st than a WR. WR probably will be address in the draft or with a trade say for Roy Williams out of Detroit.

Enjoyed the comments and look forward to the changes that will come after the combine and through free agency as teams fill needs there instead of the draft.

Lou: You and I were on the same page on the #1 pick, since Chris Long fits much better into a 3-4 than Glenn Dorsey would. Add into that the injuries that Dorsey suffered (and played through as much as possible) in 2007, and Long may move into that #1 spot, so long as Miami stands pat and doesn't trade down.

Presuming that Dallas keeps Marion Barber for another year in restricted free agency, the team doesn't necessarily need a first round RB, not with the loaded draft that the position has to offer. CB seems to be a popular projection, though I'm not entirely sold on Dallas using a first round pick on the position. Offensive line could be handled internally, though a young prospect at the spot also makes a great deal of sense.

Until recently, it wasn't a lock that Terrell Owens would be back in Dallas for the final year of his contract. He will be back according to Jerry Jones, but ultimately Dallas must fill its wideout need, be it this year or in a scramble next off-season. If Detroit, Roy Williams, and Dallas can't work out a sign-and-trade (which is very rare in the NFL, in particular because of the salary cap relative to other professional leagues like the NBA), Williams may very well become a Cowboy in 2009, but that would also likely drive the price up. Williams is no dummy, and he will do what is best for him and his family.

In short, I'd be surprised to see Dallas trade to get Williams this off-season, but Jerry Jones is a resourceful man and is good at getting what he wants.


From: Tyler Young
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 23, 2008 3:16 PM
Subject: Josh Johnson

Did you watch the Shrine Bowl this past Saturday and see QB Josh Johnson from San Diego? He looked pretty impressive and there were a couple scrambles that left my jaw on the floor. Just wondering what round you were projecting him in and any idea of who has shown any interest towards him so far.

Lou: Josh Johnson may have moved up to as high as a third round pick with his performance in the Shrine Bowl. He's 6'3" 200, and his listed 40 time has been listed as everything from 4.55 to 4.75.

His delivery is not ideal, with his throws sometimes looking odd (this was true in practice the week of the Shrine Bowl), but he overall is a very efficient passer as he showed throughout his college career. He was an All-American as a *sophomore* on the I-AA level -- as a sophomore! In the right offense, particularly a west coast setup that doesn't demand arm strength, he could fit in nicely as a backup and could eventually earn a starting spot.


John David Booty
Where will USC QB J.D. Booty be playing in 2008? (Icon SMI)

From: Andre Turner
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Jan 25, 2008 10:44 AM
Subject: George....QBs 2008 nfl draft

1) Do you see any teams attacking the draft with a mentality of taking two quarterbacks early in the draft; say rounds 1 and 3 (specifically Atlanta, Baltimore, Chicago)....For instance, Atlanta taking Matt Ryan and John David Booty, because it seems as like competition brings out the best in young quarterbacks; i.e. Cleveland?

2) Also would you mind projecting teams who would likely take their pick of Booty, Henne, Flacco, Ainge, and Brennan? Since it seems that there is a good amount of depth (they could even project as quality backups {as the Chargers realized in the playoffs} ) of experienced quarterbacks from big time programs who also guided their teams to big time bowl games

Lou: It would be most unexpected for a team to use multiple picks in the first three rounds on the quarterback spot. What happened in Cleveland was an anomoly; Charlie Frye didn't last long in 2007, and Derek Anderson likely would have had only a brief opportunity had he not performed so well against Cincinnati.

With the quarterback position in the NFL, it takes time to learn how to play on a professional level, where everything between the whistles happens at warp speed. Having two rookie QBs taken high would create a problem: keeping three QBs is the norm, and while a young QB can be put on the practice squad, a team does that running the risk of another team snatching the practice squad bound player.

As for projecting where the second-tier QBs will go, that is a difficult task. Philadelphia didn't look primed to take a QB in 2007, yet the team used a high second round pick on University of Houston QB Kevin Kolb. A team like Tampa Bay might be in the mix, particularly with Coach Gruden landing a contract extension. We'll see, but after the Super Bowl I'll be giving a closer look at the second and third rounds.



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