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Draft King Analysis

January 7, 2008
Lou Pickney,

Reader feedback is always welcomed here at Send your thoughts to me at

From: Josh Obergfell
Date: Jan 4, 2008 12:38 PM
Subject: (no subject)

Hey lou josh again
man you are proboblly tired of hearing from me. but let me run down my dream draft picks for the cowboys
1st round pick #22 Desean Jackson WR/Return Specialist
1st round Pick #31 Trade away or go DB Riggie Smith Atinio cason Or maybe OT
2nd round pick #62 jaamal charles RB
3rd round pick Go Opistie or 2nd pickl DB OT

NOw this is just a dream and i'm not very good at this mock draft buisness this is your job just let me now what you think thanks again

Lou: What you laid out makes sense. DeSean Jackson to the Cowboys makes sense, though he (like Ted Ginn, Jr. in 2007) is easily the hardest to pin down due to his unique skill set making him a potential impact player on every punt or kick. If for no other reason, Dallas might take him at #22 if he's on the board, knowing he could easily be gone before their second pick of the first round comes up. With Devin Hester making such an impact on the NFL, every team wants to find someone who might be able to replicate his performance.

By the way, Hester is slated to make just $445,000 this year and $530,000 in 2009. If/when the Bears break the bank to get a new QB this off-season, keep that in mind. If there's a bigger bargain in the NFL right now than Hester, I don't know who it is.

As for the #31 pick, the Cowboys have to make the Super Bowl to draft at that spot (win or lose since New England forfeited its pick), and while they are the Vegas favorite to do so at this point and will play out at home in the NFC playoffs, it's not a lock. If Dallas happens to stumble, they'll draft a little higher. As for trading the pick, it all depends on the offer (obviously) but in that range it wouldn't surprise me at all. There should be a good selection of CBs from which to choose at #31, though the lack of quality safeties in the draft makes retaining Ken Hamlin arguably the most important priority for Dallas this off-season.

Jamaal Charles in round two is an interesting consideration. With two borderline junior RBs declaring for the draft (Charles and UCF's Kevin Smith), it looks much more likely that there will be strong quality RBs available well through round two.

As for the third round, I'd think that secondary depth would be nice, as would offensive line. The further you get from the top of the draft, the more difficult it is to accurately project what will happen.

Adrian Arrington
Adrian Arrington was impressive against Florida. (Icon SMI)
From: Corey Strable
Date: Jan 5, 2008 4:07 PM
Subject: Arrington

Adrian Arrington of Michigan had a HUGE showing in the Capital One Bowl. How do you think it will affect his draft stock?

Lou: Arrington had a tremendous performance against Florida, and that certainly made an impact. As a redshirt junior, Arrington is eligible for early entry into the NFL Draft if he chooses to take that path, though according to the Detroit Free-Press, Arrington told reporters that he plans to return to Michigan in 2008. He missed all of 2005 due to an injury suffered on a kickoff return in the season debut, and the NCAA let him off the hook for that year with a medical redshirt. Arrington has until January 15 to decide for sure, but for now it appears that he's leaning toward returning to college.

As far as Arrington's pro prospects, there was the mess in 2006 with the domestic violence allegations that he will have to revisit whenever he goes through the NFL Draft wringer, be it in a few months or in 2009. He has good height at 6'3", though his 4.55ish 40 time isn't going to help his case. If he came out for the 2008 Draft, I'd think he would fall into the third or fourth round draft range.

Arrington should be a solid "possession receiver" in the NFL, and he will provide whoever drafts him with a good target, particularly in three WR situations. He's never had a 40+ yard reception in his Michigan career, again a testament to his non-elite speed. I'm not sure what another year at Michigan would do (pro or con) to help him, particularly playing under a brand new offense with Rich Rodriguez, but we'll find out -- unless Arrington opts to enter the draft in the next eight days.

Terrell Thomas
Will Terrell Thomas fall to round two? (John Pyle/Icon SMI)

From: Tommy McMichael
Date: Jan 6, 2008 8:38 AM
Subject: #10 Pick on your mock NFL draft

You have the New Orleans Saints taking Terrell Thomas CB from USC with the #10 pick. Please explain. Terrel Thomas is not even listed as a 1st round pick by anyone else and I don't believe he is either. Why would anyone choose a lower round choice when a clear top 10 choice is available? If the Saints do choose CB with the #10 pick and either Michael Jenkins or Malcolm Jenkins is available that would be their choice. I don't think Sean Payton is this stupid - do you?

Lou: I've clearly been in the minority among the various draft sites and prognosticators out there ranking Terrell Thomas so high, and I anticipate that he will be much lower when I redo the mock draft tomorrow. It's looking much more likely that he'll be a second rounder, especially with Kansas CB Aqib Talib making the jump to the NFL. If junior corners Malcolm Jenkins (playing tonight for Ohio State) and Reggie Smith (who missed the Fiesta Bowl with an injury) enter as well, it will suddenly become a very crowded field at corner.

As it is, Thomas is not just ridiculously behind the top tier when it comes to what many scouts are saying; at 6'1" 200 pounds and 4.47 speed, Thomas has the skills and the big conference experience to be able to make a relatively quick adjustment to the NFL. But the major problem with Thomas is his injury history.

This is one of those cases where I have to put my own evaluation aside (on how I believe Thomas will do) versus looking at what NFL teams and GMs are most likely to do. It's a slight distinction, but since I don't make the picks for any teams out there, my opinion is immaterial relative to the value in making as accurate of an assessment as possible about where players are likely to go in the draft.

The worst injury for Thomas came against Arkansas in 2005 when he tore multiple ligaments in his right knee. He recovered from that to play in 2006 and 2007, though he has had a pair of shoulder injuries (right shoulder in 2003 and left shoulder in 2007) and the "injury prone" label will cause many teams to take a very cautious approach involving him.

I think that Thomas will have a strong NFL career, but a day one pick is not one to be trifled with, particularly for a team like the Saints that needs their corners to not only be good, but also healthy.

From: Ray Schyvinck
Date: Jan 6, 2008 9:41 AM
Subject: Nick Hayden DT Wisconsin

I wonder if you could give me your thoughts on Nick Hayden DT Wisconsin

Where do you see him falling into the draft, his strengths and weaknesses.

I have been watching Wisconsin games and he always seems to be double teamed so he doesn't get the Stats.

Lou: Hayden at this point looks to be a likely fourth or fifth round pick, though demand for defensive tackle, coupled by a relative lack of depth at the position in this coming draft, could cause him to go earlier than projected.

At 6'4" (or 6'5" depending on the source) and 300-305 pounds, he has the size to play DT in a 4-3. He is durable, with 38 straight starts at defensive tackle. He had a good teammate at DT at Wisconsin, Jason Chapman, who was a smaller but quicker match to go with the massive Hayden.

Hayden, despite having average speed, is able to get to the QB, which is why he faced many double-teams. He is an alert player, and he has performed well against top-notch competition (such as against Ohio State this year where he was part of nine tackles.) He made a big leap in 2007, dropping 15 pounds of fat from the year before with off-season training.

If Hayden can maintain discipline this off-season and perform well at the combine, there's a chance he could sneak into the higher part of the fourth round. A top three round spot would surprise me, though with this being a relatively weak draft for DT, you never know.


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