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Draft King Analysis

December 28, 2008
Lou Pickney, DraftKing.com

Reader feedback is always welcomed here. Send your thoughts (and, particularly with all the math involved here, any mistakes) to Draft King at LouPickney@gmail.com.


The 2008 New England Patriots have become only the second team in NFL history (the first being the 1985 Denver Broncos) to go 11-5 and miss the playoffs. As a result, the Patriots will be drafting ahead of other teams with lesser records that qualified for the playoffs -- and we'll probably see Bill Simmons berate the system in about a dozen articles between now and September 2009. I'd certainly be mad if my favorite team went 11-5 and missed the playoffs.

The rules for setting the draft order are available here. The Super Bowl runner-up will draft #31, while the Super Bowl winner will draft #32.

The information below is unofficial and was tabulated by me via a program created by Brad Turner. Any mistakes here are my fault (and, if you see any, please let me know).

2009 NFL Draft order
1. Detroit (0-16) [.5586 opp. win %]
2. St. Louis (2-14) [.5353 opp. win %]
3. Kansas City (2-14) [.5371 opp. win %]
4. Seattle (4-12) [.5000 opp. win %]
5. Cleveland (4-12) [.5745 opp. win %]
6. Cincinnati (4-11-1) [.5549 opp. win %]
7. Oakland (5-11) [.5195 opp. win %]
8. Jacksonville (5-11) [.5371 opp. win %]
9. Green Bay (6-10) [.5039 opp. win %]
10. San Francisco (7-9) [.4490 opp. win %]
11. Buffalo (7-9) [.4531 opp. win %]
12. Denver (8-8) [.4570 opp. win %]
13. Washington (8-8) [.4823 opp. win %]
14. New Orleans (8-8) [.4961 opp. win %]
15. Houston (8-8) [.5176 opp. win %]
16. San Diego (8-8) [.5156 opp. win %] - AFC #4 Seed
17. New York Jets (9-7) [.4707 opp. win %]
18. Chicago (9-7) [.4765 opp. win %]
19. Tampa Bay (9-7) [.4805 opp. win %]
20. Dallas (9-7) [.5020 opp. win %]
21. Arizona (9-7) [.4882 opp. win %] - NFC #4 Seed
22. Philadelphia (9-6-1) [.5137 opp. win %] - NFC #6 Seed
23. Minnesota (10-6) [.5039 opp. win %] - NFC #3 Seed
24. New England (11-5) [.4805 opp. win %]
25. Atlanta (11-5) [.4608 opp. win %] - NFC #5 Seed
26. Miami (11-5) [.4609 opp. win %] - AFC #3 Seed
27. Baltimore (11-5) [.5235 opp. win %] - AFC #6 Seed
28. Carolina (12-4) [.4883 opp. win %] - NFC #2 Seed
29. Indianapolis (12-4) [.4980 opp. win %] - AFC #5 Seed
30. Pittsburgh (12-4) [.5275 opp. win %] - AFC #2 Seed
31. New York Giants (12-4) [.5059 opp. win %] - NFC #1 Seed
32. Tennessee (13-3) [.4590 opp. win %] - AFC #1 Seed


2008 Playoff Seeding

AFC
1. Tennessee Titans
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. Miami Dolphins
4. San Diego Chargers
5. Indianapolis Colts
6. Baltimore Ravens

NFC
1. New York Giants
2. Carolina Panthers
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Arizona Cardinals
5. Atlanta Falcons
6. Philadelphia Eagles



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