Lou Pickney's 2024 NFL Mock Draft

National Football League
Draft King Mailbag

Reader feedback is always welcomed here at DraftKing.com. Send your thoughts to me at LouPickney@gmail.com.

From: Howard Lin
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 19, 2006 1:24 PM
Subject: Texans?

Lou,

Bored at work here...I was wondering, and I've only come across your page here recently, but have you ever considered expanding your mock draft to maybe 2 or 3 rounds? It seems pretty hard to find decent mock drafts that actually take into account each team's draft needs in addition to the draft value...I guess the real reason I'm suggesting more rounds, is I'd like your take on the disaster known as the Texans. It seems ever since the Oilers left town, it's been nothing but torture for pro football here in Houston. I'm thinking the Texans end up in the 3-5 pick range, and believe their shopping list for that pick should look something like this:

Adrian Peterson, Leon Hall, Joe Thomas, LaRon Landry...

and depending on how that pick shakes out, I think they should fill out the rest of the draft with a QB to groom entirely under Kubiak (i.e. Kevin Kolb) and help in the secondary and O-line...Where do you think Kolb could end up going, and what's the over-under on the Texans completely screwing this draft up too?

Lou: It's hard enough for me to keep the one round mock updated the way I want it. And while I would like to have a longer mock (say, three rounds), for now that's not something that I'm prepared to offer.

As for the Texans, a hard-hitting playmaker like LaRon Landry would be just what the doctor ordered for the secondary. Adrian Peterson would be a great addition, no doubt, but I don't anticipate him falling to the #5 spot. Leon Hall is an excellent corner, but a player like Landry I think actually makes more sense for the Texans than Hall, though either would be beneficial.

Joe Thomas is someone who could easily end up in Houston, and one of the toughest choices I made on the last mock that I did was placing Landry over Thomas to the Texans at #5. It could go either way there.

There may be value at RB in round two, depending on if guys like Kenny Irons or (more realistically) Michael Bush end up on the board at that spot. Offensive tackle would be a strong option for round two, with players like Arron Sears, Ryan Harris, and Doug Free potentially all being on the board at that point.

In the third round, perhaps the Texans will have spotted an RB who they expect to fall and take him there (think of what Gary Kubiak saw with non-first round RBs in his time in Denver), or a pick toward the secondary might be in order. Houston could also play the "best player available" card, adding depth to a position with someone the team perceives as a high value pick, or decide to think long-term with a QB like Kevin Kolb or Trent Edwards (all depending on who falls where.)

From: JeRhonda Bernard
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 19, 2006 12:59 PM
Subject: (no subject)

Why do you have the Jaguars taking Antoine Cason with the 24th pick of the draft, when they invested huge money into Rashean Mathis and Brian Williams? In my opinion I think if Patrick Willis is still on the board we would select him, especially with Mike Peterson's injury earlier this year and the fact that he is getting older. There is no need for an outside linebacker with the suprising play of Clint Ingram, and we know Daryl Smith is good. On defense their biggest need is a free safety who has range and can make a big play in the secondary, because i have a feeling Deon Grant will not be resigned after this season with all of the big plays he has allowed. So if Michael Griffin is still on the board i could see them taking him and placing him alongside Gerald Sensabaugh for a young but very talented deep patrol. Your thoughts?

Lou: You make a good point about the money that Jacksonville has invested in its starting corners. Facing Peyton Manning (and now Vince Young also) twice a year, it seems likely that a strong nickel corner would be logical for Jacksonville... but perhaps the first round is not the place to go for that.

Williams was signed to a six-year, $32 million contract this past off-season, and while he has had some off-the-field problems, it does seem to make sense that the Jaguars would look elsewhere with its first round pick. Point taken.

From: bbfan15@yahoo.com
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 20, 2006 7:29 PM
Subject: Giants Draft

Lou,

Is there any way the Giants would draft Jeff Samardzija?

Also, where do you expect Steve Smith of USC to go?

Lou: It is possible that the Giants would take Jeff Samardzija. The Giants could use another quality WR to go with Plaxico Burress, particularly with age/injury catching up with Amani Toomer. I'd think that the Giants might address this need in a later day one pick, or maybe through free agency, but it is a possibility. Samardzija is an interesting case because of the potential for him to decide to play baseball instead of football. But, assuming that he goes into the NFL, he is a possibility for the Giants.

Steve Smith looks like a second round pick to me. I could see the Giants taking him in round two and looking to Smith to contribute early on in 2007. But if not Smith, there will be other WR talents on the board in the second round who might be considered.

From: Jason German
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 21, 2006 6:56 AM
Subject: Top qbs and rbs

What teams besides the lions are truely pursueing qbs in the first round of this draft? So many teams found qbs that they can build around or that are at least servicable in last years draft. Losman has begun to understand the Bills offense and seems to have a firm grasp on his starting position. Qb isn't the raiders greatest issue. As much as I like David Carr he looks more and more like a bust each week but the whole at rb is to great to overlook. Which brings me to my next question.

What temas are targeting rbs? The raiders may be giving up on Jordan. The texans are allready on the clock for Adrian Peterson. The jets could go that direction but I feel the more pressing need is in the defensive front seven (they don't have 3-4 personel). Packers need defense first.

Lou: This doesn't look like the type of year where teams will be actively pursuing QBs in the first round. However, with 3-4 QBs (depending on who comes out) potentially having first round grades, teams that might not be looking hard at a QB might see a guy they like slipping and either snap him up or make a move to trade up to take him.

The last time that only one QB went in the first round was 2001, though there were two in the top 32 (since the draft at that time was only 31 teams per round.) In that draft, beyond Michael Vick and Drew Brees, the next QBs to go were Quincy Carter, Marques Tuiasosopo, and Sage Rosenfels. I'd suggest that the QB crop in this draft will be much deeper than that, particularly if Brian Brohm decides to turn pro. If JaMarcus Russell (who I expect to return to LSU) decides to come out, it will be very deep with them in there with Brady Quinn, Troy Smith, Drew Stanton, Trent Edwards, Kevin Kolb, Tyler Palko, etc. And, with that consideration, why would a team like the Ravens use a first rounder on a QB when they could get a good value QB pick in the third or fourth round?

It would be amusing to see Oakland at #1 and Detroit at #2 and Al Davis potentially teasing the Lions by threatening to take Brady Quinn. For all the talk of the Raiders not taking a QB in the first round, Oakland taking Quinn out of spite would be interesting on many levels. I think Oakland will take Adrian Peterson, but you never know with Al Davis. But besides those two teams, or possibly Miami or Houston, it seems unlikely that there will be many teams actively looking into taking a QB in round one.

As for RBs, you could make an argument for these teams strongly considering taking a RB in round one: NY Jets, Cleveland, Houston, Oakland, and Detroit. But remember that teams with strong RBs will still take a first round RB on occasion (Cincinnati taking Chris Perry with Rudi Johnson, Kansas City taking Larry Johnson with Priest Holmes, etc.) so unlike the QB position, it's hard to go through and say that a team definitely won't take a player at the RB position in the first round.

From: John Watson
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 21, 2006 9:56 AM
Subject: Draft picks

A QB for the Panthers? What? You can’t be serious. The Panthers have serious needs but QB isn’t one of them, especially in the first round for a guy who would ride the bench the entire season. Fox has publicly admitted that developing QB’s takes too long and he won’t draft on high. If they do anything with the offense in the first couple rounds look for it to be a lineman, we need someone who can step in a replace Travelle Wharon on the left side, or Evan Mathis at the right guard. Defense is where the Panthers will go, Dan Morgan’s days look to be finished and our Safeties were torched all season long. Patrick Willis, Paul Posluszny, Tom Zbikowski, Michael Griffin, Buster Davis, Laron Landry are all good looks for the Panthers.

Lou: I can't talk about the Panthers' QB situation without pointing out that Chris Weinke is 1-17 in his career as a starter. Read that again. 1-17!

Now a first-round QB won't necessarily help to provide immediate depth, but Jake Delhomme turns 32 next month, and drafting a QB with an eye toward the future doesn't seem to be unreasonable, particularly when considering how deep the 2007 Draft could be at QB relative to the perceived need at the position among NFL teams.

John Fox may not be in favor of taking a first round quarterback, and if that's more than a smokescreen then perhaps Carolina won't be taking a QB in round one. And I agree that Carolina could use a safety like Tom Zbikowski (who might return to Notre Dame) or one of the other prospects at that spot to line up with Mike Minter. And while an ILB would be nice, I think that is contingent on what the team decides to do with Dan Morgan.

Carolina's drop in forced turnovers in 2006 compared with 2005 has been surprising, and you make a good argument as to why the Panthers would likely look toward the defense in the first couple of rounds. That's probably accurate, though it doesn't seem outside the realm of possibility that the team would take a QB.

Maybe it's not Carolina, but I think that there will be at least one team in that second half of the first round that will take a QB.

From: Mike Torbert
To: LouPickney@gmail.com
Date: Dec 21, 2006 4:22 PM
Subject: Cowboys taking an O-Lineman?

I love your site. Especially in the off-season. I visit it several times a day, researching the top prospects like a scout would. Last year you did not see D. Ware or M. Spears in the 1st round and suggested we might trade one of our two 1st round picks. Well I have not lost faith in your skills….yet. You say Da Boyz will go O-line in the 1st round, I say no. With Parcells most likely coming back next year, and with his history of drafting, I do not suspect him pick a lineman in the 1st round. He just never does. We would have done it last year, with several top candidates on the O-line available in rd 1. Who do you think the BPA will be within 2 picks of our position? That is who I think we will take, no matter the position. Also who is the best returning coming out this year?

Keep it up Lou!!!!

Lou: Actually, if you look at my final 2005 Mock Draft, you'll see that I did end up slotting Ware to the Cowboys (and putting a DE to them with the other pick.) I had thought that Marcus Spears would fall in that draft because of his slow 40 yard dash time. And, ironically enough, now Bill Parcells is not happy with the lack of pass rush being created by his defensive ends.

If you're considering the Best Player Available in the range where Dallas will be, two guys who might be there worth considering both fall into the DE/OLB category: Georgia's Quentin Moses and Michigan's LaMarr Woodley. Perhaps Michael Griffin will be considered, but only if Dallas believes that he can play Free Safety to an exceptional level (and, as previously noted, the Cowboys already have a lot of money tied up in their secondary.)

There are a number of positions that I think Dallas would pass on regardless of the skill level there (within reason): QB, RB, FB, C, TE, ILB, CB, SS. That only leaves WR, OG, OT, DT, DE, OLB, and FS. And I only list guard because of the potential of a player like Justin Blalock to be a guard/tackle hybrid; taking a natural guard would be quite unexpected there.

This whole discussion could change dramatically should Bill Parcells leave the Cowboys following this season. But, for now, it seems that there are a limited number of directions for Dallas to consider, and if Parcells is against using a first rounder on the offensive line or at wide receiver, that leaves only a few possibilities for believable picks for the Cowboys come draft day.

Draft King NFL Mock Draft

NFL Draft Prospect Profiles

Draft King is owned and operated by Lou Pickney. © 2003-2024, all rights reserved.
Unless otherwise noted, the views expressed here are those of Lou Pickney alone and do not necessarily reflect those of any media company.